What is the risk for a U.S. recession?
by the Savvy Trader?
Maybe I’ve missed it but nowhere is anyone talking recession.
The U.S. has to inevitably to go into a recession and fairly soon.
It is impossible not to… purely from the perspective that DOGE is going after personnel .
The numbers of firings/resignations means that if say: 15% of Government workers lose their jobs then we are talking about at least 350k
Add in the amount of retail stores than will view tariffs as too much to bear or have already announced closures. If the 15k estimated store closings is correct, that adds a minimum of say 150k (this is a very conservative estimate) to the tally. There’s no way to calculate associated companies who will inevitably need to contract but we could easily find that within 3 months over 1 million additional people are without jobs
Net result is that unemployment will go up dramatically
BUT the silver lining will be (and maybe this is the hidden agenda?) that inflation will fall.
There could even be some deflation. After all, since inflation reared its head many fortune 500 companies doubled pricing essentially regaining pricing power that was forward looking inflation by about 7 years in one shot.
Result, FED will eventually panic, especially if the stock market turns into a bear
Result for FX is USD down especially via UsdJpy
The Savvy Trader is a long time highly respected member of the Global-View community.
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