Forex Weekly Chart Analysis and Outlook forSept 16-20
If you are looking to trade the news in the you will find plenty to focus on in the week ahead. This should be a week where the reaction to new will likely be more important than the news itself baring any surprises.
While there is a full slate of news event, the key focus will be on the Fed and whether it cuts rates by 25 or 50bps.
See key highlights and detailed previews in Newsquawk’s Week Ahead
EURUSD DAILY CHART
I could easily repeat what I have been posting about the EURUSD, which is assuming a 1.10-1.12 range, 1.11 will be pivotal in dictating its tone.
This follows a failure to test 1.10 this past week (and the key 1.0949 low below it).and a struggle after a tiny break of 1.11 to end the week.
So, watch 1,11 with support at 1.1055 and a resistance at 1.1155 should 1.11+ trade.
USDJPY WEEKLY CHART
The only question for this currency is whether it can break the key 140.20-25 level and then make a run through 140.
Below 140 is a black hole until around 137 and then 127 below it.
To slow the risk, 142+ would be needed, at a minimum, but 143.04 is the key level on top.
See this article: Is There a Hidden Hand Defending USDJPY 140?
Key event Friday’s BoJ rate decision.
GBPUSD DAILY CHART
Having found support just above 130, GBPUSD is back on the offensive but would have ti regain 1.32+ to put key levels at 1.3238 and 1.3766 in play again.
In the meanwhile, 1.3150 should be pivotal in dictating whether there is a serious run at 1.32.
Key event: BOE rate decision on Thursday
USDCAD DAILY CHART
USDCAD seem to be a follower with its upside limited as long as it trades below last week’s 1.3622 high although chart still shows a risk on upside (note 2 red AT lines). .
On the other side, only below 1.35 would put key support levels in play again.
AUDUSD DAILY CHART
AUDUSD has been an outperformer with a strong bounce after holding above its 200 day mva (yellow line).
There is little on top until .6767, which is the target if it can establish a foothold above 6700
Otherwise, there is minor Support around .6690 but better support at .6650-55.
Key event: Australia employment report
XAUUSD DAILY CHART
One of my trading rules, is not to look to pick a top (or bottom) unless/until whatever system you are following (in my case it is The Amazing Trader) indicates to do so.
This is especially true when something is trading in record high territory, such as XAUUSD.
When in unchartered waters, such as XAUUSD is currently trading, the most recent high (2586) becomes the only key level and big figures, such as 2600 become the next target/potential pause level.
To keep it simple, XAUUSD keeps its bid as long as it stays above 2531, stronger if it can stay above 2550.
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