Trading in a Holiday Season

Are There Seasonal Factors for Trading in Holiday Times?

Lots have been said on this issue, and all of it was more or less right.

Trying to guess the next move on any given pair can be at least difficult if not impossible.

There are many reasons behind it, and I am going to highlight the most important ones :

• End of Year positions squaring
• Lack of interest to establish new positions
• Low liquidity
• Traders going places

But I want to give you another angle of trading at the very end of the year…

Trading for over three decades , I have found out that Pre-Holiday season can be very productive if you trade on a very small time frames .

Most important part of it is to concentrate only on Intraday moves and to ignore a Big Picture – most probably, market will stall and stay in some range.

I use several time frames :

• 3 min chart – all execution decisions I make on it
• 15 min chart – general direction and additional confirmation for my 3 min system
• 30 min chart – never execute if it is positioned on the edge ( just above support/below resistance – wait for a confirmation )

Example from this morning :

• 9:45 -15 min held it’s ground above MA’s
• 9:54 – 3 min gave entry – 1.04885
• 10:03 – 1.05110 high – over 10 pips – target met
• 13:15 – 15 min broke out of range – new high
• 13:15 – 3 min gave entry – 1.05225 ( rules of engagement when previous bar overcomes 5 pips – wait for pull back and execute)
• 13:15 – high 1.05391 – over 10 pips – target met
• 14:15 – 15 min confirmed down move
• 14:18 3 min entry signal 1.05168
• 14:21 – low 1.05011 – over 10 pips – target met

15 Min Chart

3 Min Chart

As you can see from these examples of this morning , we had 3 trades – I bet you are asking why didn’t we take this or that trade in the mean time , but this is how it looks like when you follow your system strictly.

We spent about 2h 40 min being fully concentrated and trading as we should.

Our total profit :

42 pips

Stop was pre set at 1.5 pips

Our Risk/Reward Ratio in each trade was over 1:7

We didn’t care for overall Trend on Daily or even 4h chart

The system that I have developed , the same one that was used in these examples has over 96% of probability – based on over 20 years of real time trading.

Conclusion :

• No matter how the market behaves , using very small time frames makes it possible to make significant profits
• Using very tight Stops makes sure you won’t ruin your Margin whatever happens and your Holidays will be Marry
• You have to be quick and decisive – you cannot sit and dream about some huge profits on one trade – you must execute
• Even if your system doesn’t have a huge Probability , with R/R over 1-5 you’ll be winning
• Every single trade was based and executed strictly on 3 min chart – Never-ever try to combine two different time frames at the same time for execution

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