USDJPY has been a trader’s paradise for a year but the next big move may be down.
Savvy Trader’s USDJPY Update – Key Levels and EURJPY Timing Signal
Here’s why the Savvy Trader is selling rallies with an initial target of 143.20 and watching EURJPY for the timing cue.
By The Savvy Trader – Global-View.com
The USDJPY has delivered a year’s worth of two-way trading opportunities, yet its recent price action suggests a shift toward a neutral trading range with a bearish bias.
Since May last year, USDJPY has moved in a stair-step fashion:
- 142 → 146 → 142.50 → 148 → 142.75 → 149 → 146 → 150.50 → 146.75 → 148 → 146.75 → 147.75
- On the daily timeframe, this formed a pattern of higher highs and higher lows until the past week, when a sharp sell-off from 151 took the pair down nearly five big figure
Larger USDJPY Picture Since the 160–162 Rejection
Stepping back, since the rejection at 160–162, USD/JPY has seen:
- 162 → 140 → 158 → 140 → 150.50
A closer look at daily candles shows there is more selling pressure above 148 than buying pressure below (approximately 350 pips above vs. 200 pips below).
USDJPY WEEKLY CHART
Posted by global-view.com
USDJPY Price Behavior Since April
Since April, USDJPY has seen excessive moves in both directions where highs and lows have been quickly reversed. This suggests a neutral, range-trading environment favoring a sell-high, buy-low approach.
However, applying a measured move from the May high to the July high, and projecting it below the April low, gives a downside target near 138.
This aligns with my view to sell rallies with an initial target of 143.20, and a further risk for a drop toward 138.65 — possibly even closer to 138.
Key USDJPY Levels to Watch
- Sell zone: Targets 143.20
- Broader downside risk: 138.65 (possibly 138.00)
- Resistance: 148.00-150.00
- Support: 143.20, 140.00, then 138.00
EURJPY as the Timing Clue
For those seeking patience and precision, EURJPY may hold the timing key:
- Watch 170.00 closely as a firm break below could send EURJPY toward 164.00, with pauses at each big figure along the way
EURJPY WEEKLY CHART
Posted by global-view.com
Carry Trade Impact Minimal
Carry trade considerations do not appear significant enough to override technical signals at this time.
Bottom line USDJPY is in a neutral technical posture but with potential for deeper downside. The preferred strategy remains selling rallies, watching for opportunities near 143.20, and targeting 138.65–138.00 if momentum accelerates.
The Savvy Trader is a long time highly respected member of the Global-View.com community. The views epressed in this article are those of the Savvy Trader.
