Latest USDJPY and EURJPY Updates From the Savvy Trader

There was a 2nd bite of the cherry with the EurJpy rally to 162 but the UsdJpy could not maintain 150 and so now there will be trapped longs in both pairs who will try to manage their positions Sunday night.

All I will say is “how is that working out for them?”

Now for those that either missed out or are looking for a bottom to buy I say

Beware of what you wish for

The minimum target for EurJpy is a 152 handle and the max is on a true blow out panic down at 144

Reminder the UsdJpy originally was highlighted as 162 top with a 128-130 low target.

The bounce off 142 back to 156 gives an AB=CD similar measured move of mid 130s

IF one extrapolates a dead cat bounce for the EurUsd then the most might be 1.0888

We remain Short UsdJpy with an average closer to 154 having scaled in and…

We remain Short EurJpy with an average closer to 165 where we were aggressive on the T/L break

For now we remain patient and we will remain vigilent but as December starts so we anticipate that volatility will increase dramatically especially as we get to the end of the year.

I would not be surprised if turn of the year Usd rates reach briefly as high as 50% but the impact to the Usd should be minimal.

As usual never say never so eyes peeled . Hence the vigilence mentioned.

BTW  Patience comes from manageable exposure IE not being over-extended through leverage

The Savvy trader is a nickname I gave to a long-time, highly respected Global-View member who has been sharing hi view on USDJPY after calling the top well in advance of the 161.93 high.

Addendum: More from the Savvy Trader Dec 1, 2024

US non-farm payrolls (November): payrolls expected to rise by 194K after last month’s 12K surprise. Unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings forecast to rise 0.3% month on month (MoM) and 4% YoY.

!48.40 is the line in the sand imho with a 141.25-140.05 target

It could also possibly be a whiplash line but either way I believe that

Some of the UsdJpy buyers who may be feeling remorse might just square up ahead of Friday exascerbating any move lower

We remain short both the major (UsdJpy) and the EurJpy cross