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Market Update: Month/Quarter End
A bit of a disconnect as month/quarter end flows dominate.
- OIl (up)
- Bond yields (still elevated but lower)
- Stocks; Rangebound but so far unable to regain a bid (e.g. US500 still below 7700)
- USD: Month/quarter end flows a factor: EURGBP (down), AUDJPY (down). GBPUSD up but so far meeting resistance at 1.3300, EURUSD lags. Keep an eye on the 4PM London fixing.
Wait on October
On the last day of a brutal third quarter for bonds, a few questions have emerged about the now overwhelmingly hawkish interest rate outlook.
Even though Treasury yields continued to climb on Tuesday, with the long bond yield hitting its highest point since 2002, US consumer confidence readings plunged to their lowest level since 2014 this month as August job openings also fell more than forecas… Reuters Morning Bid U.S,
Newsquawk Daily US Opening News – 30th September 2026
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USDCAD DAILY: One way street
It has been a one-way street up from the 1.3730 low over the past 3 weeks (all green candles except one small red one) that has come close to retracing the whole move down from 1.4247 (high 1.4201).
Best hope for the CAD would be if there are month/quarter end flows in its favor
If not, then 1.4200 is pivotal as firmly above would put 1.4247 on the radar.
Supports: 1.4175 (tested), 1.4139, 1.4129
XAUUSD 4 HOUR: Is the low
Bounce off 4110 would need to regain 4200 (tested, high 4202) to cool the downside risk, 4235+ to put it back into its old range.
If not,needs to hold 4165 to keep a bid focused on 4200.
Otherwise, look for 4150 to be pivotal in settiung the tone (bid above, offered below) while within 4100-4200
In our blog
Prepare for erratics: Wednesday is month/quarter end
How Month-End Rebalancing Moves the Forex Market
OMING UP: Data: Australian CPI (Aug), Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Sep), German Retail Sales (Aug), French CPI (Sep), German State/National CPI (Sep), Italian CPI (Sep), US PCE Price Index (Aug/Q2), GDP Final (Q2), Atlanta Fed GDP.
Speakers: ECB’s Elderson, Schnabel; Fed’s Barkin, Cook, Goolsbee, Kashkari.
Supply: Japan, Germany, US Treasury buyback announcement (10Y-20Y; liquidity support). Earnings: Accenture, McCormick.
US Market Wrap: Stocks mixed amid steeper yield curve as dovish Williams eases Oct. hike bets
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USDX (US DOLLAR INDEX) DAILY: Major resistance
With EURUSD representing 57.6% of the index, it would need to make a decisive breakdown through key 1.1324 support (just broken) for USDX to make a run at key 101.66-88 resistance.
Weakest currencies today: AUD, NZD, EUR, CHF, GBP in that order. JPY lagging (close to unchanged).
For those following DXY, levels may be different but patterns should look similar to this chartt.
NAS100 4 HOUR: Consolidating
Consolidating within a 30100-30500, double bottom/double top (on this CFD chart), too tight to last for too long.
Chart, however, shows a lower high (blue lines) so onus is on the bull side to take out 30500 and keep 30100 intact to avoid momentum from building to the downside.
US100 index (cash) is trying to 📈rebound toward 30,300, partially trimming this week’s losses. More specifically, today, it is losing ground standing between the 50-SMA and 20- SMA at 30,200 and 30,400, respectively, but remaining a short distance from its all-time high at 30,800, which was marked on September 23
