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USDCAD DAILY: Fully retraced, now what?
Having fully retraced the move from 1.4247 => 1.3731 (high 1.4258), 1.4247 would need to become support for momentum to build further to the upside. If not, still keeps a bid as long as it stays above 1.,4200 (but less so if 1.4247 does not become support). Note forex market hypersensitivity (and correlations) to moves in US bond yields.
Market Update
Oil up, yields up, USD up (ahead of Friday’s US jobs report)
EURUSD: With no ley support nntil 1.1065, 1.12 increases in importance. Resistance starts at the former low at 1.1312. US500: Extended pattern around 7700 to 7 days in a row but inability to stay above it leaves it dependent on 7650 (tested again) holding to maintain the range and avoid opening the door to 7600.
USDJPY 4 HOUR: Joining the party
JPY, which lagged yesterday, is the underperformer today as rising US bond yields support the dollar. Chartwise,158 is now pivotal with support as long as 157.85 holds. The general USD tone makes it hard for BoJ jawboning to have a lasting impact although the threat is a potential restraint on the upside, The market would go on higher alert if the current move makes a run at 160.
In our blog
This is a good read as markets continue to try and trade on hope with little success
Hope Is Not a Trading Strategy: Understanding Hope Trades
COMING UP: Data: Japanese Tankan Survey (Q3), Australian Trade Balance (Aug), Swiss CPI (Sep), US Challenger Job Cuts (Sep), Jobless Claims (Sep/26), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3) Events: BoJ SOO (Sep).
Speakers: BoE’s Bailey, Mann, Pill; ECB’s Cipollone, Lagarde, Schnabel; Fed’s Barkin, Collins, Schmid, Waller, Jefferson, Bowman, Cook, Williams, Logan; BoC’s Rogers.
Supply: Spain, France. Earnings: Accenture, McCormick, Nik
Newsquawk US Market Wrap – Stocks mixed and yields rise despite soft PCE
SNAPSHOT: Equities mixed, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar up, Gold down.
(Right click on any image (or chart) to open a full screen in a new tab)
NAS100 4 HOUR: New month, new ball game?
‘Diverging with US500 abut run to the upside so far failed to stay above 30500, a level that could become pivotal if trade is between 30-31K.
Otherwise, for bulls to maintain control, 30100-30250 need to hold as support.
Test in the new quarter will be if stocks can keep a bid should US bond yields continue to march higher.
US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR: 6 days in a row
Ending the quarter unable to shake a focus from 7700, which traded for the 6th day in a row. Weak close to the quarter, however, puts the risk on the downside where 7650 (tested) needs to hold to keep 7700 on the radar and thoughts away from 7600. Focus in the days ahead will be whether the weak close is month/quarter end driven nor there is more to it (e.g. weight of firmer bond yields).
EARNINGS PRIMER: Micron (MU) earnings due 30th September at 21:00BST/16:00EDT
