[SF Monedge]

Margin impact on the EurChf shorts is minimal so almost surely the right side.  Israel could wait for the weekend in a behind the scenes handshake deal with UK, France, US, Canada to not disturb markets and allow time for assessment before Monday but they will strike when the tactical advantage is determined.  Not today likely.

[GVI Forex 2]

Bobby, I am only the messenger.Equities are lower so maybe someone paid notice.

[GVI Forex 2]

I don’t see the case for a higher EURUSD unless it can firmly trade back above 1.0650. Even then it would only be a correction.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Oh GREAT,,,,we’ll all glow in the dark…

[Mtl JP]

now why would a mossad character trumpet that publicly ?

sounds like “they” – those around the table – are arguing

[GVI Forex 2]

Striking Iran’s nuclear facilities are “on the table” says a former Mossad intelligene chief via Sky news.

Source; Newsquawk.com

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0638
–
this puppys finally calming down a bit from its puke from 1.0950

technically some signs hint at small s/t 10665 potential

I am just an observer; not interested in converting into action

[Belgrade Knez]

does anyone use MT4 platform build 1417 on cell phone?

[michael Calif]

yes, EURUSD rally due any time  …

[SF Monedge]

EurChf looks to have decent R/R around 9710 and already scaling in shorts to see.

[GVI Forex 2]

Thanks SF.

Michael wouldn’t a USDX sell imply a EURUSD rally?

[Mtl JP]

Jay 11:35 // as long as u & market sees a goodly yield gap USD / majors
movement north favors the DLR

I am biased BoD DLRx to 107ish

[SF Monedge]

GV – was watching exactly what you point out.  I’m looking to sell Sterling if it gets close to 125 but so far yes you could see the yield holding and the reaction.  I’m mainly active in AudCad and EurJpy and with the right areas seen UsdJpy.  I know you really don’t like UsdChf but I like the thought of trailing it waiting for a middle east shock, I don’t believe they strike until tomorrow NY time.

[michael Calif]

June 10yr futures remain a buy under 108′ per Option Profile  …  lower rates ahead

[michael Calif]

for us, June USD futures are on sell-only basis above 106.00, per shifting Option Profile

[GVI Forex 2]

Monege, not unless EURUSD can get back above 1.0650. Just made a tepid attempt that did not follow through. As soon as bond yields started to rise the dollar came off its lows. 10-year last 4.542% vs. a low at around 4.612%

[SF Monedge]

Bottom line is Usd is on its back foot although it could hold 106.  Preference is short with a trailing sell entry in UsdChf in case of sudden shock from middle east.

[GVI Forex 2]

In the absence of any news US bond yields are ticking down (10 year 4.622%, -3.9 bps)

Keep an eye whether there is any correlation in FX

[GVI Forex 2]

LOOK AT MY USDX POST (BELOW) AND THEN READ THIS BKOG POST TO SEE WHaT I MEaN (In this case it was offered in a bid market)

What Does it Mean When a Currency Feels “Bid in an Offered Market?”

[GVI Forex 2]

USDX ONE-HOUR CHART – OFFERED IN A BID MARKET

I never used to pay attention to USDX until JP alerted me to its use.

With EURUSD  representing 57.6% of the USDX, it can be used as a semi-proxy for the EURUSD.

In this case, USDX has backed off its high but EURUSD has so far been stymied by 1.0650 after bouncing from an invisible hand protecting 1.06. A more significant resistance area is at 1.0660-65.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h Intraday outlook

The base is formed for try outs to the Upper levels of the Daily Downtrend.

Targets to watch out for are 1.06700 & 1.07200 – all depends on time-space development.

Supports are at 1.06300 & 1.06050

By the pattern that is forming, it is unlikely to see downward follow through right now.

It is more of a possibility to watch Upticks for a day or two.

So base your small time frames trades accordingly .

With no serious data ( except for US Initial Jobless Claims tomorrow ), there is a calm till Friday.

Check out Economic Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

It was becoming obvious (see my posts from yesterday before he spoke) that Powell was going to backtrack on rate cuts.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

There’s no doubt there’s a doubt about any U.S. interest rate cuts this year.

After weeks of market trepidation about stalling U.S. disinflation amid still-brisk economic growth, Federal Reserve top brass are making clear that this year’s rate cut plans are on ice until further notice.

Morning Bid: Blunt Powell signals rate cut plans on ice

[Mtl JP]

hey jerome … still not commenting on politics ?
–
“Biden wants to triple China tariffs on steel, aluminum imports” – cnbc

[Mtl JP]

I have not checked Jared Malsin and Benoit Faucon affiliations / biases so fwiw
this is what they write in WSJ this morning:
–
Emboldened Iran Makes Dangerous Gamble on Open Confrontation
Iran and Israel stand on the brink of an escalatory cycle of violence after Tehran’s attack showed its shift away from accommodation with the West.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD ONE HOUR CHART — MAKE OR BREAK TIME?

With USDCAD’s 2023 high at 1.3899 looming above, it would seem we are approaching a make-or-break time for this major move higher.

What I mean is in this current run to the upside it would have to take out 1.3899 to put the move up into higher gear targeting 1.3975

Looking at this chart, expect support as long as it trades above 1.3774, stronger bid if 1,38 holds.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART – BID BUT STILL CONSOLIDATING BELOW RECORD HIGH

XAUUSD trading with a bid while above 2362 but would need to take out 2398 (suggests 2400 as well) to put the record high in play again.

Should 2398 be broken then 2372 would move up as the key support

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 1 HOUR CHART – 1.24-1.25?

GBPUSD is an outperformer today after CPI data (see our economic calendar) but the onus is on the bull side to take out 1.25 or remain mired in a 1.24-1.25 range.

Looking at this chart, the 1.2471 area would need to hold to keep a focus on 1.25.

[Mtl JP]

betting concideration
before or after:
–
Passover begins before sundown on Monday, April 22, 2024, and ends after nightfall on April 30, 2024

[Mtl JP]

FLIPOFF to BIDEN ?
–
APRIL 17 UPDATED 51SEC AGO
After meeting Herzog, UK’s Cameron says it’s clear Israel will respond to Iran attack – timesofisrael

“It’s clear the Israelis are making a decision to act,” Cameron, who was speaking to reporters in Israel, says. “We hope they do so in a way that does as little to escalate this as possible.”

[Author]

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