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USDJPY 4 HOUR: Will the BoJ intervene?
With short-term momentum turning up and USDJPY testing back above 155 for the first time in over a week, will the BoJ try to resist and intervene? Given a generally firm USD tone and rising US bond yields, the BoJ might try to slow the market but it is doubtful an ambush would be effective. In this last episode before the BoJ ambush, the upside stalled below the 61.8% level so keep an eye on FIBOS in the absence of key nearby levels as well as the pivotal 155 level.
XAUUSD (GOLD) 4 HOUR: Key supports?
Trying to build on its break of a 7-day pattern around 4400 where charts show a void of key supports until around 4000. This suggests using the most recent low (4253) and key round numbers (e.g. 4200) as key supports. Back above 4280-00, at a minimum, is needed to slow the risk.
COMING UP: Data: Chinese Activity Data (Aug), UK Jobs/Wages (Jul), French/Spanish Inflation Final (Aug), German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Sep), US ADP Employment Change Weekly
Speakers: ECB’s Cipollone Supply: Japan, UK, Germany, US
Newsquawk US Market Wrap – Stocks hit as AI CEOs call for slowdown in AI development
SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries up, Crude up, Dollar up, Gold down.
XAUUSD VS. BTCUSD
XAUUSD: Bounce back above 4282 after stops were run has cooled the downside while back above it but would need to at least get back above 4355 to shift the risk back to 4400. What stands out is the pause above 4250 another example of the importance of the “50” level.
BTCUSD: Pause above 76000 maintains the current range to n80000
NAS100 (NASDAQ) DAILY: NAS100 vs US500
Unlike US500, NAS100 broke support but with limited follow through (suggest giving NAS some leeway given its large denominator.
Similar to US500, a void of nearby supports below the low suggests using round numbers (e.g. 28K and FIBOS in case the low gives way.
USDCAD 4 HOUR: Key resistance looms’
Little reaction to CDA AUG CPI, which came in about as expected. CAD also not benefiting from the steady rise in crude oil, which by the way has just moved to a new high for the day.
As this 4 hour chart shows, it has been a one way street from around 1.38, which has broken down momentum but now faces key resistance looming overhead at 1.3940.
US PRE-MARKET MOVERS: AI-linked stocks, ORCL, BWIN, ELMT, AFRM ES -0.6% NQ -1.5% RTY -0.4%
Market Update: Daily Charts
EURUSD: Dependent on 1.1500-11 holding or faces a void on the downside. Back above 1.1566 is needed to slow the risk.
US500: As can be seen on this (CFD) chart, the recent low (7580) is key support with a big void below it.
XBRUSD (Bid): Use round numbers (for XTIUSD as well) as pivotal levels (e.g. 100, 105. 110) with 110 a key one to watch as firmly above it would put the major 7 month start of the conflict high at 120.60 on the map.
USDX DAILY: What is needed for a breakout?
For current up momentum to turn into an uptrend, 1.0011 would need to be broken, currently guarded by 9989. This suggests EURUSD (57.6% of the index) would need toi break 1.1500/eStablisH above for USDX to make a run at 1.00+ Look for similar lines, even with different levels, if using DXY.
