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This headline seems to be giving risk a modest boost even though it is not clear who is running the show in Iran.
Forex Market Snapshot
The dollar seems set to end the week on the defensive as it trades lower ahead of the US open. US bond yields have steadied and stocks are up but talk the U.S. fiscal position, with the total deficit surpassing $40 trillion grabbing headlines and rising, is acting as a weight on the dollar.
- AUD and NZD outperforming,
- USDJPY is weaker after completing a 61.8% retracement (159.11) but is still above 158
- GBPUSD has extended its high, marginally so far, through a 1.3658 target
- EURUSD retested its 1.1710 high, holding so far
- USDCAD extended its low but so far holding above 1.3730 support
COMING UP: Data: Global S&P PMIs Flash (Aug), Japanese Inflation (Jul), UK Retail Sales (Jul), PSNB (Jul), EU Negotiated Wage Growth (Q2), Canadian Retail Sales (Jun), EU Consumer Confidence Flash (Aug).
vents: BoC SLOS (Q2).
Speakers: RBA’s Bullock.
Credit Ratings: Fitch on Poland; Moody’s on the Netherlands, Sweden.
US MARKET WRAP: Stocks slide and yields reverse higher
SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar flat/up, Gold flat
(Right click on any image (or chart) to open a full screen in a new tab)
USDJPY 4 HOUR: Confounding
Bounce off (just above) 158.00 and a higher low confounding the general bearish USD trend.
Charts show little until 159.77 other than 159.105 = 61.8% so look for 159.00 to be pivotal.
No apparent catalyst other than the uptick in US yields and weak JPY crosses (vs. Gold and Crypto as well).
XAUUSD 4 HOUR – Textbook move
I will let my earlier post do the talking in what has been a textbook bounce off support move (4527 => 4450 => 4545 ->)
XAUUSD (GOLD) DAILY: 4500+ pivotal
Trend: UP
Momentum UP
Extending high briefly through 4500 and 4515 resistance (high 4527) but pausing below the key 4565 target.
This leaves 4500 as pivotal, needing to establish above to make a further run at the upside although keeps its bid as long as it trades above 4450.
Ethereum is extending its sharp advance after breaking out of its recent range and reclaiming the key 200-day SMA near the psychologically important 2,000 level. While the breakout has shifted the near-term bias to the upside, the largest altcoin is meeting strong resistance near a three-month high around 2,335.
US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR: Retracing but damage not fatal
Trend: Up but retracing Momentum: Short-term down
Stops run below 7680, as far with limited follow through as this level becomes pivotal in dictating whether momentum can build further. On the downside, as long as trade stays above 7604 damage is not coinsidered fatal. On the upside, back above 7680-00 is needed to cool the threat, back above 7727 to break short-term momentum, above 7747 to reverse..’
Data: Philly Fed Mfg big beat (higher): Weekly jobless claims small beat (lower)
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