[GVI Forex 2]

Geoploitical news

RIYADH, April 29 (Reuters) – U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday urged Hamas to swiftly accept an Israeli proposal for a truce in the Gaza war and the release of Israeli hostages held by the Palestinian militant group.

Hamas negotiators were expected to meet Qatari and Egyptian mediators in Cairo on Monday to deliver a response to the phased truce proposal which Israel presented at the weekend.

“Hamas has before it a proposal that is extraordinarily, extraordinarily generous on the part of Israel,” Blinken said at a meeting of the World Economic Forum in the Saudi capital Riyadh..truncated

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 105.70 / 10-YR 4.642%
–
I gage that player collective is expecting and therefore pricing in what is generally termed “jerome’s FED’s hawkish pivot” on wednesday. odds calcs suggest around 25bps by december.

10-yr… 2yr … probably on “watch” radar.

europe, incidentaly, is on holiday on Wednesday (the so what: likely thin participation)

Bottom Line
I am biased but this time around I am not enthusiastic about much upside potential for the DLR.

Maybe friday’s incoming US jobs data will stirr the juices pot some

[GVI Forex 2]

SCROLL BELOW AND YOU WILL SEE MY REFERENCE TO THE “MONDAY EFFECT.’

SEE WHAT IT MEANS IN THE FOLLOWING

Another Trading Secret Revealed: The Monday Effect

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – OUT OF STEAM?

With EURJPY still above key levels but losing its strong momentum it remains to be seen whether EURUSD can keep its bid ahead of key events this week.

What caught my attention looking at this chart is the failure to seriously take out the 1.0750 level (power of 60).

Mark down today’s high for if it holds, pressure could re-emerge on the downside as the week progresses (“Monday Effect”).

 

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS IS ONE OF MY FAVORITE TIPS AND WORTH REPEATING AS IT IS A TIMELY ONE NOW THAT THE BOJ HAS FINALLY INTERVENED IN USDJPY.
‘
The forex market is on a constant search for the path of least resistance, whether it be on the up or downside for a currency. A trend starts like the gently flowing stream, picks up momentum as with the cascading water, and then reaches a climax when it hits the waterfall.

Jay Meisler’s Common Sense Trading: How You Can Identify the Path of Least Resistance?

Jay Meisler’s Common Sense Trading: How You Can Identify the Path of Least Resistance?

[wfakhoury Amman]

April 29, 2024 at 7:26 am
wfakhoury Amman
USDJPY
155.48 ,156.05 ,156.65 all confirmed and will be reached one by one
now 155.20
======================================
155.48 and 156.05 Reached
100% guaranteed

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJPY DAILY CHART = DAMAGE NOT YET FATAL

While intervention has been in USDJPY, crosses have felt the impact as well. With that said, if you want to be short JPY there is less chance of intervention in crosses than in USDJPY.

EURJPY retreat from 171.55 shows key supports still untouched

165.34
163.36 (Trendline)
163.01

While the damage is not yet fatal the intervention has restored a two-way risk to a one-way market. .

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4H

Support at 1.06850

Resistance at 1.07350

First targets:

Up – 1.07650

Down – 1.06650

BoJ Intervention didn’t spill on this pair, but we have to be careful anyways…

If it closes this Hourly Bar above 1.07200 , we’ll move further up.

Bellow 1.07100 – down…simple as that

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS BLOG ARTICLE POSTED LAST WEEK INCLUDES A PRIMER ON INTERVENTION AND WHICH TYPE TENDS TO BE MOST EFFECTIVE,. I SUGGEST READING IT NOW THAT THE BOJ HAS SHOWN ITS HAND.

Many new traders have not experienced intervention and even those who have traded on this event, it pays to have a refresher to see which type tends to be most effective. I call it an intervention primer.

Will the BoJ Intervene in USDJPY and Does it Matter?

[Belgrade Knez]

seems like BOJ boys went for a dinner ….. maybe done for the day

 

[GVI Forex 2]

DID THE BOJ READ OUR BLOG ARTICLE POSTED ON FRIDAY?

Is it Time for the Bank of Japan to Put Their Money Where Their Mouth Is?

Should the BoJ decide to take a stand and intervene, it would look to get the most bang for its buck. In other words, pick a time where it would use the least resources and produce the greatest impact from intervention.

If I was in the BoJ’s shoes I would wait until just after the Tokyo opening on Monday, let the market push USDJPY up and come in with both barrels blazing. I would then smash USDJPY below 155, sit at that level with an offer to make it a resistance and let the market do the rest.

is it Time for the Bank of Japan to Put Their Money Where Their Mouth Is?

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY Weekly

If BoJ means serious business and not just slowing down , they will have to get in again…and strong…This YoYo has to go at least 1.200 pips down to confirm the Reversal.

Although there is a chance for another Intervention, but right now the pressure is shifting to the Upper side…once again…

So let’s see who prevails 😀

[Belgrade Bobby]

Knez – I don’t think so…once BoJ showed their cards, gloves are off…

[Belgrade Knez]

April 29, 2024 at 9:06 am
Belgrade Bobby

Their Way….or My Way

———————————

I prefer to stay Sideway! 😉

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY 4H

Degenerate Central Bankers….at such length they went, just to screw up my ideal Chart development…

At least we have reached over 160 in straight line…Now let’s see how this ordeal will end up…

Their Way….or My Way 😀

[Belgrade Knez]

Intervention from BOJ whole day on their bank holiday!

 

[wfakhoury Amman]

USDJPY
155.48 ,156.05 ,156.65 all confirmed and will be reached one by one
now 155.20

[GVI Forex 2]

Another round of intervention…

See my April 28, 2024 at 5:10 pm#5366 for the only level that matters

[GVI Forex 2]

April 29 (Reuters) – The yen jumped suddenly against the dollar on Monday, with traders citing yen-buying intervention by Japanese authorities to try to underpin a relentless tumble in the currency to levels last seen over three decades ago.

The dollar fell sharply to 155.01 yen from as high as 160.245 earlier in the day. Trade sources said Japanese banks were seen selling dollars for yen . It was last fetching 156.21 yen.

Japan’s yen jumps against the dollar on suspected intervention

[wfakhoury Amman]

Dear SF
USDJPY is in a buying mood,158.50 is confirmed and will be reached.
There is no confirmed price downside yet. But the close below 158.50 will go to 157.90 and the close below 157.90 will go to 157.35 .the close below 15725 will go to 156.75
100% guaranteed.
———————————–
158.50 Reached.
157.90 157.35 156.75 all reached.
100% guaranteed

[SF Monedge]

I see plenty of potential for some sudden selling in UsdJpy targeting the 156.00 to 156.20 area which would draw sells in thinking its intervention.  The market is long and will simply repurchase if it isn’t and it isn’t taken down further.

[SF Monedge]

It looks to me like Dxy is intact as long as the 105.70-80 area holds any sell bouts.  Consequently I have zero indication UsdJpy is a sell at this point.  If you must, I think a good practice would be following it with sell stop entries instead of trying to be a superstar calling tops and bottoms.  I think Aussie is a consistent buy overall on down drafts especially against crosses.

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

France will lead off Tuesday’s first estimates for first-quarter GDP followed by Germany and Italy with flat to modestly positive results the general consensus. Eurozone results will follow close behind (11:00 local time) with 0.2 percent quarterly growth the consensus. The first estimate for harmonised Eurozone inflation will be posted at the same time as Eurozone GDP with only the most marginal improvement expected.

But Tuesday’s session will actually open in China with the official CFLP PMIs, which are expected to slow, while rounding out the day will be monthly GDP from Canada, which is also expected to slow, and the quarterly employment cost index from the US which is expected to hold steady.

Wednesday’s session will center on an expected no-action Federal Reserve meeting. Monthly US employment data are another of the week’s mainliners opening with ADP on Wednesday followed on Friday by nonfarm payrolls which are expected to rise a strong 230,000.

Econoday

[GVI Forex 2]

April 29 (Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Asian stocks should open on Monday buoyed by Friday’s tech-led surge on Wall Street, while investors will be scrambling to make sense of the latest twist in the Japanese yen’s extraordinary helter-skelter slide against the dollar and other currencies.

Morning Bid: Helter-skelter yen, US tech tonic

[GVI Forex 2]

If there is intervention it woulf be more of a political decision.

[Mtl JP]

fun n gaming with inflation fighter jerome
on wednesday
–
and then powell flipped to a hawkish tone muttering something about less cuts and in not exactly super clear terms has mumbled something about no cuts and in agonizingly confused linguistics suggest that a potential hike can not be off the table.

srce.: attempted futurologist Mtl JP

[Belgrade Bobby]

Economic Data Calendar 

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY Daily

In my 3 decades of experience with Yen ( my first major lost was shorting it in similar situation ) , what I see is continuous run to 162.

As long as 157 holds its ground.

And to be even more exact, I expect tomorrow another leg Up , just like on Friday – straight for the 162.

Second possibility is to see a pull back to 157 area and then within few days to hit that target.

Call me a degenerate trader ( no offence taken) but I just can’t see it any other way…yes, there is always a first time for everything, but not on Yen .

If BoJ tries to stop it right now, they are degenerate bankers….as I said : Blow of Rally, and then they step in , together with major players taking their profits.

[michael Calif]

as pure guesswork, .6330 in Yen nearby futures is an attractive .786 buy point from the Jan ’23 high.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4-HOUR CHART – ONLY ONE LEVEL MATTERS

Looking at this 4-hour chart, the only level that matters is 154.95

I am sure that the BpJ is looking at the same level as the one that would need to trade below to negate the latest leg up.

On the upside, it is pure guesswork with 160 the next “big figure” target.

[Author]

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