[SF Monedge]

Bobby is very good if I may say so.  Regarding posting.  I would encourage every person out there watching us to make a post when you feel like it whether or not it might work out favorably if a trade idea.  Largely one of the greatest benefits of this former CTA I ever received was listening to everyone in GVI whether you agree or not, and asking questions.  Jay will answer.  He has a tremendous ability and history.  More input here will inspire me to turn into Peyton Manning in the forum.  Of note, I will be in and out of trades very rapidly.  Some are testers to see the carry impact or margin impact, those are some of the things that tell you if the odds are stacked in your favor or not.  The goal is a minimum of 10 pips per trade, but I will often take 2 or 3 if I don’t like the carry/margin/other impact.  So be on your toes.  If I am holding, I will note it and usually with a project time horizon.  Please bear in mind most CTA’s or former CTA’s are momentum practitioners.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD – Daily

After everything is over now ...

[SF Monedge]

Ok GVI.  Endless thanks.  A bit more coffee after pulling a muscle working out to VanHalen last night lol.  I will attempt to temper the input out of respect.  Yen obviously is a favorite, AudCad, and Sterling (I have an issue with communism so I don’t like Eur/Usd unless I am selling it lol).

[GVI Forex 2]

Monedge, you have the floor.

[SF Monedge]

Effective at the end of this month Monedge will no longer provide its signal service due to exactly what I mentioned in an earlier post today.  Unfiltered automated signals is playing with fire without human input.  You will find most of our signals here in GVI at an increasing rate in a fashion that hopefully does not clog the forum and unintentionally discount the other very very good traders and posters in GVI.  I tend to bein and out of trades rapidly through the course of a day/night.  My collegues tend to hold positions for a week or longer.  So my posts could be frustrating for anyone including myself due to the sheer rapidity lol.  One CTA called me a walking talking high frequency robot lol. You simply will not find a better place than GVI.  It has been THE go to source since the 1990’s.  Disclaimer – I am not paid by GVI.   Yet lol

[SF Monedge]

105.06.   Can’t edit in the forum.

[SF Monedge]

Hope I am not hogging the forum, trying to be of help.  My colleagues will be selling June USD futures if/when 105.36 is reached    (price at 05.06 when I was notified).  They tend to be position traders.

[SF Monedge]

Just to add one more.  I believe it to be irresponsible to simply allow an automated system to run unfiltered by human interaction.  Until AI can do your laundry for you unfettered you will absolutely watch $800 losses start to rack up when you turn on your PC over coffee at 4 in the morning lol.

[SF Monedge]

The one algorithm I designed based on the bands was jaw dropping good with the results.  One portfolio manager who traded with me every morning challenged me with the promise if I could beat him he would turn over 20% of his portfolio to me. He was from France and traded from his yacht for the most part.  I beat him badly lol.  Then came the day the caveat was he wanted intentional losses because his clients were using him to make losses as a tax write off.  I obviously just treated it as a gentlemen’s bet in the end lol.  You can’t make this stuff up .

[SF Monedge]

I tested almost every retail available automated systems.  Every single one starts adding up losses .inevitably.  I also designed and reverse engineered seemingly endless systems and indicators.  The best was an adaptation of Bollinger bands which made each of the bands and mid-line smoothed toa 20day average of the bands.  Was like clockwork.  Inevitably it was flawed like the rest.  It is why there is a legal/regulatory designation sthose who are “discretionary CTAs.”  It is important to monitor the portfolio and make human decisions and those are the best CTA’s unless you are running a high frequency platform in my experience.

[GVI Forex 2]

… and US yields are at new highs after the earlier post-PPI retracement (dp in yields) failed to follow through

[GVI Forex 2]

The way our newly redesigned site is set up, the Forex Forum is for dynamic, real-time trading-related updates while our blog is FILLED WITH insightful articles with trading insights you can incorporate into your daily trading.

HERE IS ONE THAT WORKED LIKE A TEXTBOOK AFTER AN EARLY SESSION CORRECTION STALLED AND THE DOLLAR IS NOW BACK WITH A BID.

Actionable Forex Trading Strategy When to Fade a Correction

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Power of 50

EURUSD ran some stops above 50 but failure to stay above it has it on its back foot again.

Test your emotional sentiment when it traded 1.0750+ vs. now sub—1.0750

[SF Monedge]

Regarding automated trading.  Wrote one that was 96% accurate.  Until it wasn’t.  It didn’t pay attention to fundamentals.

[GVI Forex 2]

Just in case post

Above EURUSD 1.0750

1.0763-65
1.0780
1.0798-00

[GVI Forex 2]

ECB press conference

[GVI Forex 2]

No surprise in ECB decision

US PPI next – mkt highly sensitive to any surprises

Then LaGarde

[Mtl JP]

well… Jay in his 10:28 talks about a personal predatory tactic of using what he perceives market achillies heel for skimming some $s

worth a re-read, let it sink in

[Belgrade Bobby]

Mtl – Right on spot !

Using different systems that I have developed over decades of real trading, I have tried of course to come to some automated one…never did.

Even with the simplest one, it was always that last touch – HUMAN – Professional touch.

All the algorithms that one can come with are missing quite a lot – you cannot calculate in, the last moment change of heart that comes from the experience ( some call it a Gut feeling, I call it knowledge hidden deep in subconscious of our mind ).

And even if AI scam will come alive one day , it will be as good as those that programmed it – if those programmers can be as good as we are in trading ( yeah, right ), I am not sure that they would spend life coding it…but trading…

So far, what I heard within the industry is that the best they came up is around 60% of success ….not bad if the Risk management would follow the suit…but it doesn’t….they still play it more like betting , then real trading.

[GVI Forex 2]

JP my developer told me he has programmed over 1000 automated trading programs and the only ones that had some success were those with some human intervention.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

It may seem like an over-reaction to an inflation miss of less than a tenth of a percentage point, but the heated March consumer price update has jolted markets into doubting any U.S. interest rate cut before the November election.

Morning Bid: Markets reel on Fed cut doubts, ECB up next

[Mtl JP]

automated programs
one example:
–
Knight Capital’s Algorithmic Fiasco
— Knight’s program ran out of control for about 45 minutes — which means the company ultimately lost $10 million for each minute the new software was running, cost the firm $440 million.

ya think it can’t / won’t happen again ?
rest assured there are folks hard at work making sure it does
(and they are part of nightmares to banking supervisors)

[GVI Forex 2]

USDX WEEKLY CHART – LOOKING FOR EURUSD CONFIRMATION

USDX is in breakout mode above 105.03 but looking for confirmation from a EURUSD break of 1.0692 (scroll down to see a EURUSD weekly chart)

The reason I say look for confirmation is explained in this blog article

What is the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) and How You Can Use it to Trade

[Mtl JP]

automated programs
–
automated programs are
– lines of code
— subject to design AND coding errors and / or inefficiencies AND intellectual attack by other coding trader(s) / flush groups.
— still supervised by humans, still subject to nervousness, high excitablity; acute unease or apprehension because they still function under stress eminating from visuals of loss ranging from small to account evaporation dancing in their heads

[GVI Forex 2]

The next key event risk is the ECB decision in less than 3 hours. See this link in our blog for a detailed preview of the event.

ECB MEETING PREVIEW

[GVI Forex 2]

FOR THOSE WHO MISSED MY BLOG ARTICLE, THE POWER OF THE “50” LEVEL, I SUGGEST LOOKING AT A EURUSD CHART (HIGH TODAY 1.07497) AND READING THIS ARTICLE

In the world of electronic forex trading where an increasing volume is generated by automated programs, it is amazing that psychological or emotional levels still have a significant impact. It may be that my mind acts as an algo but whatever the case there are pivotal forex trading levels that I use that are as relevant today as they were when I first started trading. One of these is the “50”level…..

THE POWER OF THE “50” LEVEL

[SF Monedge]

My collegues tend to be week early

[SF Monedge]

stil her Bobby lol

[Mtl JP]

bump
3rd in a row
–
is anyone here laughing at FED’s 2% quest ?

Is the market laughing at the FED’s 2% inflation quest ?

[Mtl JP]

some still harping the fed int rate cut theme
–
“(Bloomberg) — Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are forecasting two Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts this year instead of three…”

[Author]

Posts