[GVI Forex 2]

AS WE SIT HERE WATCHING PAINT DRY IN THIS QUIET FRIDAY LULL, IT IS MY TIME TO GO ON ALERT AS YOU WILL SEE WHEN YOU READ THIS ARTICLE

Why Complacency Can Be a Trader’s Worst Enemy

Why Complacency Can Be a Trader’s Worst Enemy

[GVI Forex 2]

Watch Bond yields day as someone just woke up to (correlation) a tick up in yields but still below 4.50% (4.492%)-

[GVI Forex 2]

Big upside miss in Canadian jobs (stronger)

Scroll down for link to the economic calendar and scroll to next page for a USDCAD chart

[GVI Forex 2]

Canadian jobs reportup next

See our Economic Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

US yields ticking up but 10-year is still below the 4.50% Power of 50 level (4.471%)

So far little correlation seen elsewhere

[GVI Forex 2]

It is all about expectations

Fed pricing is for a rate cut in Septemeber and a possible second cut before year’s end.

[Mtl JP]

IMO
–
* globally players still pricing for FED’s 2% inflation fantasy
* winners will be those who position portfolio for “higher for longer”

basta

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

World stock indexes (.MIWD00000PUS), opens new tab have shaken off a month of doubts to come back within 0.5% of record highs on signs of a loosening U.S. labor market, falling European interest rates and another Hong Kong (.HSI), opens new tab surge.

Morning Bid: May rescued by jobless jump, BoE shift, HK surge

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – BOJ VS. THE WORLD

Looking at this chart, it would normally suggest a run at 156.28 and above.

However, the intervention threat has so far been enough to cool speculative pressures and push USDJPY into the background.

This leaves USDJPY trapped within 155-156.

Use short-time frames if plan to trade USDJPY  intra-day.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART

EURUSD looks set to trade with a bid as long as it stays above 1.0750 with local support around 1.0770.

Resistance is at 1.0791 with last Friday’s. 1.0818 post-US jobs report high above it (also the pivotal 1.08 level).

This has been a quiet week for US data but that will change next week with key inflation and retail sales reports..

See our Economic Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUW CHART – BUSTING OUT

XAUUSD continues to recover, breaking a key resistance at 2352.

If it holds as new support, then 2400+ comes on the radar again.

If not, the range is back to 2332.

For today, expect support as long as it trades above 2352.

[Mtl JP]

after daly aped kashkari
here we are:
–
US 10-YR 4.459% +0.01; DLRx 105.07 in the crapper after breaking out of morning consollidation (as is Dlrchf)

so some might ask is friday going to be an “often after dust settles” one-way day
tia

[GVI Forex 2]

MOST TRADERS FOCUS ON HOW MUCH MONEY THEY CAN MAKE TRADING. THIS ARTICLE FOCUSES ON WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A SUCCESSFUL TRADER.

Do You Want to be a Successful Trader?

Do You Want to be a Successful Trader?

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4-HOUR CHART – KEY RESISTANCE

AUDUSD bounced after its retracement ran out of steam (note trendline is still intact) and now needs to get through .6624 to put the .6655 high set last Friday back on the radar.

On the downside, expect support while above .6544

[Mtl JP]

fwiw daly said
–
Bloomberg
— ‘More Time’ Needed for Restrictive Rates to Work

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY WEEKLY CHART – IF I WAS THE BOJ

If I was the BOJ I would have a goal to break the 145.89 level, where the major weekly trendline will also be at in the coming weeks.

From the savvy trader

They ie funds retail etc will once again buy the dip but all they are doing is creating liquidity to stop the pair from falling precipitously

[SF Monedge]

JP I should be safe then since they had no air conditioning.  Until.  The French engineers do what comes naturally and do such a good job reversing the mistake and then the drones end up hunting anything with a heater on.

[Mtl JP]

change change change …
will (not?) do me good
—
Bridgewater Associates’ new CEO (Nir Bar Dea) has said the hedge fund must be completely “rewired” in order to boost its performance and find its “independence” in the wake of Ray Dalio’s exit in October 2022.
– marketwatch May 9, 2024

[Mtl JP]

68 peugeot … s a nice looking car. antique by now

I recall Daf 33 (dafodill) w/CVT … so simple.
when the belt broke a lady would take off her nylons as temporary “drive belt” fix.

man I love elegant simplicity. Especialy in coding.
can u imgaine the f-ked-up code in the french missiles ? rofl
somebody s burning the candle at both ends scrambling for a fix 🙂 🙂

[GVI Forex 2]

THERE ARE SOME TIMELY ARTICLES DUE OUT NEXT WEEK, MAKING THIS A TIMELY ARTICLE WORTH READING

News that Moves the Forex Market

News that Moves the Forex Market

[SF Monedge]

JP – does this mean I should trade in my 1968 Peugeot ?  thank you in advance

[Mtl JP]

BoE stays pat at 5.25%
—
Paris Olympics defence system mistakes air conditioners for drones

Concern for the 500,000 Britons expected to attend the Paris Olympics has risen amid claims that France’s new €350 million anti-drone system cannot distinguish between unmanned terrorist and air conditioners.

personally … am not sure this was a smart idea to make it public, geezus

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 1 HOUR CHART – LOONIE TUNES

Sometimes the CAD is referred to as the Loonie and for good reason but not this time USDCAD was trading soft even when the USD moved higher earlier today. So it should be no surprise to see it trade down when the USD turned soft.

As this chart shows, there are layers of support between 1.3620-80 that needs to break for the move down to pick up steam.

Look for a limited upside if it stays below 1.3713.

Note the key Canadian jobs report is released on Friday.

[Mtl JP]

coming up
–
13:00 – 25 Bln of 30-yr paper
14:00 – daly — at some fireside chat (sounds so homey, friendly … doesn’t it)

[SF Monedge]

All Treasuries have flatlined in the sell cycle.  20yr has to eclipse and hold 91.70 to support Eur appreciation.  Eur-Aud-Gbp all bid overall albeit lacking drive at the moment.

[SF Monedge]

I think if the 30yr clears and holds 115’12 it would be unhealthy for the Dollar.  115’07 at present.

[michael Calif]

Option Profile remains SHORT June Gold futures from the Apr 19 TOP; new sell point 2355

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD just popped above 2332.

[SF Monedge]

Vix futures have been sideways for 12 hours with a slight undertow in volume (short side).  Dow covered calls fell off of a cliff around at session end yesterday, since there was zero impetus the odds were stacked that stocks would catch a bid today.  That said there is already an increase in underlying puts to a slight extent which could assist in putting a cap in the gains.  I like your 106 DXY notation earlier Jay.  Result with consideration to many other things could end up being some bit of a continuation in risk appetite only to be followed by an offered scenario in risk coming up I think.  Hence why I am already scaling in the long side of USD from below.

If the mood changes I switch, that simple.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART –

I was not even looking at gold until I saw commodity currencies rallying and this chart tells it all.

The failure to establish below 2300 has seen a pop that faces a resistance at 2332, If broken then 2352 becomes the target.

On the downside, XAUUSD keeps a bid as long as it stays above 2323.

[Author]

Posts