[SF Monedge]

Also if you watch Trump sitting down with Dr Phil, and in videos on youtube of him sitting with world leaders in person, he is extremely congenial and respectful.  And incredibly sharp.  There is a lot of idealistic nonsense out there which is flat false.  Again, not a fan, but I think I get it.

[SF Monedge]

JP – Trump is a lot like Ozzy Ozborne.  What people do not realize about the Oz is most of his songs are about not embracing the dark side, he just did it like Vincent Price did in movies.  I firmly believe, if he becomes president, there will be initial chaos followed over time by improved economic performance and trade.  Anyone thinking anything else is convincing themselves of things that don’t exist.  Trump actually wants balance and fairness.  I studied him closely.  Not a fan in particular, but I think I get it.

[Mtl JP]

To the tune of U2 – Pride
Greece becomes first EU country to introduce a six-day working week – cnbc and others

• The regulation, which came into force on July 1, bucks a global trend of companies exploring whether to embrace a shorter working week.
• The pro-business government of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has reportedly said the measure is both “worker-friendly” and “deeply growth-orientated.”
• Labor unions and political analysts have sharply criticized the move.
Actually, the greek is beholden to the IMF and needs to squeeze blood from its peasants – officially it is called “boosting productivity”

[Mtl JP]

POLITICS
after all that s been said and done
sofar more s been said than done
–
however, when cnn goes public suchly
“CNN Poll Most voters think Democrats have a better chance of keeping White House if Biden isn’t the nominee”

I am expecting more will be soon done. (i.e. joe POOF!s)

will markets celebrate or dump ?

[GVI Forex 2]

This feels like a sparring match week which for most in the US a 4-day holiday weekend, 2 elections, US jobs report.

One change this week seems to be the steepening of the yield curve and concerns over what happens with inflation and budget deficits should Trump become president, although this story has a ways to play out.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBP focus will be on any pre-election positioning – scroll down to see my GBPUSD update

[michael Calif]

nearby Euro futures still betting Long EURUSD and higher prices    :gtwo3

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0744 … 2X top test

mini mani moe which way will u go

[SF Monedge]

Aussie futures are right in the middle of a 15 day span/range.  I like Aussie during data releases and events like Fed speak because I believe it functions in a more legitimate way vs Euro, which becomes a stop run minefield.  Bias is still up for me in Aussie from below overall.

[GVI Forex 2]

POWELL STILL SPEAKING, AT THE PANEL DISCUSSION – COMMENTS ABOUT THE us BUDGET DEFICIT BEING TOO HIGH  AND UNSUSTAINABLE- BOND YIELDS TICKING BACK UP, FX FOLLOWS BUT NOT TOO FAR

[GVI Forex 2]

JOLTS BEATS ON UPSIDE (JOB OPENINGS)

[Mtl JP]

at top of hour
–
10:00nyt – JOLTS

partial influencer in jerome’s need for more confidence building

[Mtl JP]

Powell (at the optometrist) sees
‘quite a bit of progress’ on inflation but needs more confidence before cutting – cnbc

rofl

[GVI Forex 2]

Powell speaking — markets taking his  comments  as a  bit dovish

[SF Monedge]

I had to do that in 2 posts because for some reason the system would not accept it in one piece.

[SF Monedge]

So then, the Fed hasn’t done much to take a bite out of the out of control spending of recent years which is putting up $1 trillion US dollars every 100 days.  In the Fed’s defense they can’t order the government to stop spending like it just inherited a diamond mine.  There are people who want to put on the breaks but that is against the rules of the current regime.

There is one trick they might have left before the effects start to really hit the economy in bad ways.  There is something called a “hail Mary” in US football where you have seconds left on the clock and just throw it 40 yards into the end zone hoping something magical happens.

What do you think they might do?

[SF Monedge]

S&P released this statement earlier:

(We estimate that for the US, Italy, and France the primary balance would have to improve by more than 2% of GDP cumulatively for their debt to stabilize, this is unlikely to happen over the next three years.)

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART –UK Election Looms

Key levels are pretty clear at 1.2612 and 1.2710, the former holding after a run at it earlier.

The key focus is on Thursday’s UK elections, where an outright win by Labour would be seen as a positive if only because it would have a ruling majority. We should have a feel for pre-election positioning by tomorrow at the latest.

 

[Mtl JP]

“In our view …” = opinion
opinion about political decision-making
so fwiw

[Mtl JP]

only sharp deterioration
–
(Reuters) – The United States, France and major economies are unlikely to halt the rises in their debt levels in the next few years, credit rating firm S&P Global warned on Tuesday. … .. …

“We estimate that –for the U.S., Italy, and France– the primary balance would have to improve by more than 2% of GDP cumulatively for their debt to stabilize; this is unlikely to happen over the next three years,” S&P said in a report.

“In our view, only a sharp deterioration of borrowing conditions could persuade G7 governments to implement more resolute budgetary consolidation at the present stage in their electoral cycles”

[Mtl JP]

meaning …
ECB no cut on july 18th and
players can speculate about sept’s meeting

[Mtl JP]

“It will take time for us to gather sufficient data to be certain that the risks of above target inflation have passed,” Lagarde Jul 1 2024

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – GAP FILLED

Having filled its opening week gap, EURUSD focus is on whether it stays aboive 1.07.

Why? Yesterday EURUSD broke a 6 day pattern pivoting 1.07, which is a bullish indicator as long as this level does not trade again.

To deflect the focus from 1.07, 1.0750 needs to trade again, currently blocked by 1.0743.

Fior today, how markets react to news will give a clue.

Powell speaking in Portugal (13:30 GNT)

JOLTS report (14:00 GMT)

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Further signs of a cooling U.S. economy greet the second half of 2024, with politics dominating headlines on both sides of the Atlantic and Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell due to speak later on Tuesday.

Morning Bid: Growth ebbs, curves steepen, Powell in Portugal

[GVI Forex 2]

USDX 4 HOUR CHART – GAP FILLED

With the opening week gap filled, the key 106.17 high is back on the radar (while it trades above 105.83).

In this case, it seems more of a matter of general USD strength rather than USDX acting as a EURUSD proxy (57.6% of the index).

Now that the EURUSD gap has been filled, it would probably need to see 1.07 trade again for the USDX 106.17 level to be seriously challenged.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Incoming data

Economic Data calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

OPENING WEEK GAP FILLED by EURUSD 1.0713 low

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDCHF Daily

Supports at : 0.90250 , 0.90000 & 0.89550

Resistances at : 0.90500 , 0.90750 & 0.91000

Bullish Pattern

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY Daily

Supports at : 161.000 , 160.250 & 158.000

Resistances at : 162.000 & 164.250

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Supports at : 1.07050 , 1.06850 & 1.06650

Resistances at : 1.07250 , 1.07450 & 1.07800

Rectangle Depicts the playing field.

[Author]

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