[GVI Forex 2]

Powell speaking at the the Econimics Club in DC

[Mtl JP]

holding riski assets eh ?

Goldman challenges Fed’s demand it hold more capital after stress test, FT reports

July 14 (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs (GS.N), opens new tab has lodged an appeal with the U.S. Federal Reserve challenging its result in the regulator’s most recent “stress test,” which is set to force the bank to hold a greater amount of capital, the Financial Times reported on Sunday, citing people familiar with the matter.
The Federal Reserve’s annual “stress test” exercise showed last month that the biggest U.S. banks would have enough capital to withstand severe economic and market turmoil but firms faced steeper hypothetical losses this year due to riskier portfolios.
The tested banks overall saw losses of 17.6% to existing loan balances on credit cards and among them Goldman Sachs recorded 25.4% in losses.

[SF Monedge]

My enemies at Black Rock just hit a $10.6 Trillion asset valuation, but my friends at Goldman hit a 150% profit gain on some really smooth trading acumen.  Always loved Goldman.  Hate BlackRock, bad people.

US Dollar has legs on the attack on Trump, and judging by the mood of people who have called me about it even the somewhat liberal one’s are angry at the current establishment.  I think there will be a lot of pre-election pricing which will become quite muted about 3 weeks prior.

[SF Monedge]

EU puts have more steam at the moment than calls, forwards are not performing near term but are performing in further out contracts, other metrics are on the buy side but weakening.  Looks like gains may be capped shortly based on those metrics.  A few technical concerns agree, not unanimous.

[GVI Forex 2]

FLASH BRIEF

July ECB meeting preview: On hold until at least September

Having delivered the widely anticipated 25 basis point cut in key interest rates in June, the ECB is expected to leave policy unchanged at what will be its last meeting before the summer recess. Since the last gathering, inflation developments have been mixed and the euro has been volatile in the face of diminished easing speculation in the U.S. and the fallout from surprisingly sharp swings to the right and then left in the recent snap French National Assembly elections. Accordingly, Thursday’s announcement is seen holding the key deposit rate at 3.75 percent, the refi rate at 4.25 percent and the rate on the marginal lending facility at 4.50 percent. The bank is also likely to repeat June’s limited forward guidance which stated that it “will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary” to achieve the inflation target…

Econoday

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.090x
–
technically : bullish

S 1.0880/60/50

[Mtl JP]

about jerome’s yak:
–
july cut: 99.9999% NO cut
will likely try to hint that he & gang still in need of more moRE confidence to entertain a cut

I am keeping an eye on DLRx , especially for the downside

[Mtl JP]

yaaa…. bonds are sleeping
trump just got hole for a piercing in his ear
—
08:30 Empire State Mfg Survey
12:00 jerome yaks
16:35 daly: “The Bull, the Bear, and the Banker” (haha, she should know lol)

[GVI Forex 2]

JP look at the bond market to see if there is Trump Trade effect … 10 year last at 4.23%

If the usd was in uptrends and yields were under upward pressure there might have bern bigger reactions… time will tell…

[Mtl JP]

GVI Forex 10:58 there is no “trump effect”
and if there was one – i.e. the GAPs – theay are all POOF! now.
hope you made out like a bandit. if you did you ll get a promotion
to GAP bandit jr.

—

heading into this new week players will get opportunities to
try to game an inondation of FED yakkers

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1.0912

High 1.0920

Solidly above 1.0915 => 1.0981

1.0915 failure => 1.0850-60

[GVI Forex 2]

July 15 (Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Ready The shock shooting on Saturday of former President Donald Trump, who is seeking a return to the White House, is reverberating around world markets, with bets that the incident boosts his re-election chances steepening the Treasury yield curve and lifting stock futures first thing.

Morning Bid: Trump hit steepens curve; China’s economy judders

[GVI Forex 2]

Trump Trade?

Bond yield edging higher

10 year 4.22%

[GVI Forex 2]

Trump Trade?

Bond yield edging higher

10 year 4.22%

[GVI Forex 2]

The only currency trying to extend its move through its gap is EURUSD but only margina;;y. Others have backed off a touch after filling gaps.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Supprts : 1.09050 , 1.08900 & 1.08500

Resistances : 1.09250 , 1.09350 & 1.09800

As long as it stays within this bar above 1.09100 it will continue Up

[GVI Forex 2]

Is the Trump trade back on after the failed assasination attempt boosted his election prospects?

Trump Trade

Higher stocks – up today
Higher bond yields – a few bps higher today
Higher dollar – opening gaps higher did not last

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – GAP FILLED

This chart shows what it looks like to fill an opening week gap.

Key resistance remains just above at 1.0915

Gaps also filled in GBPUSDm USDJPY, AUDUSD

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPCHF 4h

Supports : 1.15950 , 1.15600 & 1.15250

Resistances : 1.16250 , 1.16350 & 1.16500

Close of this Bar above 1.16200 would call for more Up

Break Above 1.16500 would open a new playing field – Higher channel !

Join us in the Trading Club

[Mtl JP]

Gvi Forex 1:10 / why ask brother ?

you KNOW they will

[GVI Forex 2]

USDX 1 HOUR CHARTR – Will gaps be filled?

USDX Friday close/gap 104.08

So far, FX has had a modest reaction to the Trump factor (opening up gaps in majors). SAtocks are up a touch,

[GVI Forex 2]

Gap openings..

[GVI Forex 2]

Read the prior post

[GVI Forex 2]

SINGAPORE, July 14 (Reuters) – Saturday’s shooting at U.S. former President Donald Trump’s election rally raises his odds of winning back the White House, and trades betting on his victory will increase this coming week, investors said on Sunday.

Trump-victory trades to swell after shooting, investors say

[michael Calif]

next tradeable Low BTC futures will be after August 2nd    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

Week Ahead 15th-19th July: Highlights include US & UK Retail Sales, Japan, NZ, UK and Canada inflation, and the ECB Policy Announcement

Newsquawk Week Ahead 15th-19th July

[GVI Forex 2]

I have not mentioned the assasination attempt on ex-President Trump as it will not have any market impact.

One of the reasons Global-View has worked so well over its 28+ years as a community is that given our diverse membership and visitors we only post political news to the extent it might affect trading,

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC WEEKLY CHART – ONLY A RETRACEMENT?

Using 38431 => 73810, 61.8% = 51946 vs. the low at 53521 … See our Fibonacci calculator

For the bull side then, a case can be made that the 15000+ pip drop is still within the realm of a retracement given the pause above the 61.8% level.

On the upside, 63819+ would be needed to confirm a bottom and shift the focus back to 65000.

In any case, the failure to hold below 56483 shifts the focus back to 60000, which will dictate whether this rebound has legs but unless the low is taken out, there are no key stops left to run on the downside.

As I have noted, I prefer to look at pivotal big figures in BTC. In this regard, 55K, 60K and 65K are the current levels to watch.

 

 

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Global-View Trading Club Membership

Members get Full Trading Education through weekly Classes, accompanied with real time discussions, tailored for different levels of knowledge ( Basic, Advanced & Pro), Access to Exclusive Informational Material (written and video ), Trading Hot Line Help , Weekly market Updates on Major Currencies, Indices, Gold etc with Support, Resistance and Direction, Real Time Charting and Analysis Tutoring, Prop Challenge Preparation…  Free trial period available

The Global-View Trading Club

[GVI Forex 2]

Most of us do not trade based on weekly charts but they are a good starting point to see a clearer picture of what side is most at risk and the stronger side to trade, potential targets and whether there are any levels that would change the trend.

[Author]

Posts