[Mtl JP]

10-yr 4.025
–
I suspect players and markets are are still if not more excessively optimistic about inflation

potential opportunity lies in if they go “animal spirity” the FED will find itself in an uncofortable position of having to cool the enthusiasm

[GVI Forex 2]

US coming in has seen some risk on => US bond yields fall => USD follows down except USDJPY, which is higher (suggests unwinding of some long JPY crosses)

No change to key pivotal levels

EURUSD 1.08

GBPUSD 1,28

USDJPY 150.

it is like a 3 ring circus.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD DAILY CHART – BOUNCED OFF TRENDLINE

 

See this daily chart updated USING MY AMAZING TRADER CHARTING ALGO from the one I posted earlier (SCROLL BELOW) showing the key daily trandline has been tested

Bounce woud need to recover 1.2800-06 and stay above to suggest a low/pause.

I created The Amazing Trader and am still amazed when I see one of its lines, in this case a trendline, hold dead on.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

BOE cuts by 25bps, 5-4 vote, no surprise

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

The Federal Reserve left Wall Street with little doubt about a first U.S. interest rate cut in seven weeks’ time, but multiple cross-currents from the earnings season, Japan and China, and domestic politics all make for a noisy start to August.

Morning Bid: Fed nods to cut, chips rebound, BoE up next

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD DAILY CHART – RUN AT RECORD HIGH

Bascking off after a run at the record 2484 high.

Needs to hold above 2432 to keep it on the immediate radar.

Fallback support is at 2395-00.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART -THE LEVEL TO WATCH

The bLow off to 148.50 and subsequent BOUNCE back to 150 HAS WIPED THE DECK OF STOPS and suggests potential for a pause/low but only if 150 is solidly regained.

On the upside, there is a minor double to at 150.31. Key resistance is at 151.25.

In any case, 150, which has now traded 2 days in a row IS THE LEVEL TO WATCH as it will dictate what comes next.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP DAILY CHART – GBP WEAK PRE-BOE

Expectations for a rate cut are seen in this cross, weighing on GBPUSD while EURUSD follows wIth a lag.

Key levels to watch after the BoE come in at .8460 double top and .8500

judging by the price moves, the surprise would be no rate cut.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DAILY CHART – THE ONLY LEVEL TO WATCH

EURUSD following the weaker GBPUSD with a lag and for me, the only level to watch is 1.08 as this will set the tone going forward.

There is little on a daily chart until 1.0710.

On the upside, the failure to take out 1.0850 set the stage for a fresh run lower.

Note the blue Amazing Trader lines indicating risk on the downside as long as it stays below 1.0870

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD DAILY CHART – BOE SET TO CUT RATES?

 

GBPUSD moving off the sidelines as price action suggests market is voting for a rate cut today.

Break of 1.2777 is significant if it holds.

Key daily trendline is around 1.2750.

Still above but coming closer to 100 (blue) and 200 (yellow) mvas.

Major level us 1.2612, the base of the move to 1.3044.

[GVI Forex 2]

USD sliding towards 149

I posted this early on Wednesday

Stays offered while below 151.84 former double bottom

150.25 is next key support but 150 is the obvious target

Trendline is in the 148s, break would coinfirm what we already know.

145.89 is the key target if 150 is broken,

140.19 is a major target

Above 151.84-152.00 would be needed to slow the threat,

BoJ likely lurking to slow the downside, not reverse it,

 

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY WEEKLY CHART – ONLY ONE LEVEL MATTERS

The only level that matters is USDJPY 150 as that will dictate whether it makes a run at 145-148 (next target is at 145,89) or pauses.

On the upside, 150.25-80 would need to be overcome to slow the threat.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD DAILY CHART – WAITING FOR THE BOE

 

Consolidating 1.28-1.29 pre-BOE

Key levels outside of this range

1.2777 (also 61.8%)

1.2937

If BOE does not cut rates then it is just a matter of timing, when not if.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD DAILY CHART – WAITING FOR THE BOE

 

Consolidating 1.28-1.29 pre-BOE

Key levels outside of this range

1.2777 (also 61.8%)

1.2937

If BOE does not cut rates then it is just a matter of timing, when not if.

[GVI Forex 2]

August BoE MPC Preview: Doves edging towards a majority

Forecasters are very unsure about which way this month’s BoE MPC announcement will go but, on balance, seem to expect what would be the first cut in Bank Rate since March 2020. However, if so, it is likely to be a very close vote. June saw a relatively clear 7-2 split in favour of no change but official comments since then have hinted that the easing camp might now have a small majority. That said, uncertainty has been heightened by the blackout period for central bank rhetoric in the run up to the 4 July general election and with core inflation still high, a steady policy stance would hardly come as a big surprise. A 25 basis point reduction would put Bank Rate at 5.0 percent, matching its lowest level since May 2023….

Econoday

[Mtl JP]

Key word: COULD
post-jerome presser headline round-up:

WSJ – By Nick Timiraos
Federal Reserve Clears Path for September Rate Cut
Officials made two important changes to their policy statement that acknowledged recent progress in their inflation fight and that pivoted closer to lowering rates without making any explicit commitment.

CNBC – By Darla Mercado
Fed recap: Chair Powell gives the September rate cut signal traders were hoping for
” Powell said a rate cut in September is “on the table,” provided the inflation data continues to be encouraging.”

New York Times
Rate Cut ‘Could Be on the Table’ at Next Fed Meeting, Powell Says
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, suggested an interest rate cut could be on the horizon after the central bank held rates steady at its most recent meeting.

CNN
Fed opts to hold interest rates steady — but a cut could be coming in September
“A rate cut could be on the table in the September meeting,”
Powell said Fed officials will have to weigh the “totality of the data.”

“Certainty is not a word that we have in our business,”

FoxNews
“A reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September.”

“The question will be whether the totality of the data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks are consistent with rising confidence on inflation and maintaining a solid labor market,” Powell said. “If that test is met, a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September.”

FT
Federal Reserve says first cut to US interest rates could come in September

all aboard, all on the same side of the boat !

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 4.03

when solid turns to liquid physicists call that melting.
biologists call that diar …

good earlier alert n warning SF !

[SF Monedge]

Euro/Moscow metrics internals are stacked heavily long side.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nasdaq – NDX
Nasdaq rise on chip sector rally, Fed signals of upcoming rate cut
Nasdaq finished higher on Wednesday as chip stocks rallied and the Federal Reserve left U.S. interest rates unchanged but indicated it could begin easing monetary policy in September if inflation cools.

The Fed kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range as it ended its two-day policymaking meeting on Wednesday, but opened the door to easing in September, seven weeks shy of the November U.S. elections.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers discussed the case for cutting rates, but a “strong majority” agreed that now was not the appropriate time.

[Mtl JP]

4.056%

somewhat mixed FX correlation reactions with us 10-yr yield prancing
maybe needs bit of time to settle down to normality

[Belgrade Bobby]

XAUUSD – Gold Daily

Gold posts record-high finish, lifted by Fed rate-cut hopes, Middle East violence

Gold futures settled sharply higher Wednesday, with prices marking a fresh record-high finish, as expectations for a U.S. interest-rate cut in the coming months and violence in the Middle East lifted the precious metal’s investment appeal.

“Heightened Middle East tensions and hopes for Fed rate cuts have restored gold” back above the psychologically important $2,400 level

Technical view : Channel Support held and now we have to see how it will react on previous high 2483.68 and if above next hurdle is at 2.600

Bullish as bullish can be 😀

[SF Monedge]

JP – July 31, 2024 at 7:37 pm – Only sane 1st possibility would be at Euro 0860 is in my view but highly debatable.

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 4.075 , just above 4.072 LOD

I am looking for sign(s) the dip is over,
like a good – i.e low risk – place now to play for a pop in yield

[SF Monedge]

JP – Powell is scheduled in September for V=erbal Transition Surgery.  They already did “the other one.”

[Mtl JP]

US 10-YR 4.09% -0.05
miaa-eh

next thing is to keep an eye out for certain FED yakkers
explaining what Jerome said, intended to say and what he wanted to be understood by players

[Mtl JP]

CERTAINTY
–
some jurno cretin asking jerome about certainty

where did thic clown come from ?
amazing cool respectable reply from jerome chuckle

[Mtl JP]

jerome s repeated “need more data to gain more confidence” before cut

sofar players appear hard of hearing

[Mtl JP]

rofl

wanna see more data to gain more confidence

I LOVE you jerome ! I know what bothers you

[Mtl JP]

hahahahahahahaha

not quite at that point yet (i.e sweet confidence point) – jerome

hahahahahahahahahahaha

[Mtl JP]

did jerome just p!ss on the flames of sept cut ?

[Author]

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