[Belgrade Bobby]

Nvidia – NVDA

NVIDIA & 2 Other AI Stocks to Gain From Lower Interest Rates

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve trimmed interest rates aggressively and penciled in further rate cuts by the end of the year. It slashed the benchmark A lower interest rate scenario may lead to stock gains for major artificial intelligence (AI) tech players like NVIDIA Corporation NVDA interest rate by a half-point to 4.75-5% for the first time since March 2020.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – ANOTHER NEW RECORD HIGH

A IHAVE SAID BEFORE, WHEN IN RECORD HIGH TERRITORY, THE NEW HIGH BECOMES THE ONLY KEY RESISTANCE.

LOOK FOR UPPORT ON DIP AS LONG AS IT TRADES ABOVE 5685, STRONGER BID IF ABOVE 5700.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – BID BUT NO NEW RECORD

No change to what I posted earlier’

Look for support as long it trades above 2500-11 but unlike recent days, there are no stops to go for on the upside unless the record 2600 high is taken out.

If it trades between 2500-2600, then 2550 will set its intra-day bias. If 2600 is broken and sustained, then it again moves into unchartered waters.

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC 4 HOUR CHART – MOMENTUM BUILDING?

Chart trying to build momentum off the rising red AT line.s

Bid while above 60K and now needs to move above the 200 period mva (yellow) to make a serious run at 65K.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1154

puppy s got bulish tone

S 1.1120

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 100.50
–
dlr s on back foot again after yesty’s ying-yang
If it fails here say hello to 99 – 89.50

[SF Monedge]

UsdJpy If 142.65 breaks we likely see 142.40 to fill the curve.  Otherwise its going up to challenge 143 in tandem with some shift in activity I see already creeping in.

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily

Supports : 1.32450 , 1.32150 & 1.31800

Resistances : 1.32750, 1.33150 & 1.33450

Road is open for a test of 1.34550 in next couple of days.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 15 MINUTE CHART – SUPPORT HELD

This is the 1.1115 level I cited earlier as support.

Resistance at 1.1141…break would put the 1.1150 magnet in play

 

[GVI Forex 2]

… and one now that saw the USD move up after stocks backed off highs (US500 last 5706)… at least you can see the current correlation (as long as it lasts).

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 5616 => 5685 => 5723 (new record high)

Bond yields backing off (3732%)

USD off its highs… this time EURUSD held 1.115 (AT) intra-day support

[SF Monedge]

Caveat – I cannot see the orders like I could when I was a CTA running software and preferential access specifically for “us” but I still can see enough to form a sense of the activity.  So7 on a 10 scale in terms of vision in that regard.

[SF Monedge]

Regarding yesterday’s activity –

I believe the market immediately began pricing in a BOJ cut coming up upon the FED decision.  I believe without .75 algorithms responded uphill in UsdJpy as enough had been priced in, and so the focus immediately shifted to the potential of a BOJ cut.  There definitely was institutional money battling on both sides a bit more than usual (I could see orders in futures/options) and the entities long forwards won the day.  That is not always the case but usually so.  Today they are short UsdJpy with the exception of yields, which are long on the outsides and short on the nearby’s.  Part of the activity was carry adjustments as well.  Just a thought.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 30 MINUTE CHART – High is in?

With the USD recovering following earlier data, will stocks do the same?

Whatever the case, US500 appears to have formed a top for now at 5716.

[GVI Forex 2]

How the world has changed

Weekly jobless claims used to be 3rd tier data

Now it is acting like tier 1

US yields up after data (10 year 3.76%)

EURUSD minor support around 1.1125 so far holding

[GVI Forex 2]

Weekly jobless claims lower than expected

Philly Fed slight beat on upside

Continues the recent streak of better than expected US data

See our Economic Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP DAILY CHART – KEY SUPPORTS

EURGBP lower post-BOE rate decision

Key support is at .8375, with just .8392 standing in the way.

Back above .8411 would be needed to neutralize the risk

Note tug-of-war between GBPUSSD and EURUSD

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD: More fun and games after a CB rate decision

1.3260 => 1.3314 => 1.3272 => 1.3286 (LAST)

[GVI Forex 2]

UK 10 year gilt yield

3.9105 +0.0605

[GVI Forex 2]

BOE unchanged as expected… 8-1 vote vs 7-2 expected… statement taking slightly more hawkish… GBP up

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

After a typical skittish first-day reaction, world markets are on Thursday embracing the new Federal Reserve stance as insurance on the holy grail of a soft economic landing.

Fed boss Jerome Powell described Wednesday’s outsize half-point interest rate cut as a ‘recalibration’ rather than some panicky emergency, and investors are taking the move as a sign the Fed will seek that new ‘neutral’ quickly without necessarily being forced into it by a weakening economy.

Morning Bid: Stocks lap up Fed’s fast ‘recalibration’, BoE up next

[Mtl JP]

50pt cut joke
–

Fed slashes interest rates by a half point, an aggressive start to its first easing campaign in four years – jeff cox on CNBC

From his piece: “The decision lowers the federal funds rate to a range between 4.75%-5%. While the rate sets short-term borrowing costs for banks, it spills over into multiple consumer products such as mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.”

Kids … let me remind you that the previous federal funds rate was 5.25 – 5.50
Jeff kindly reminds us that the federal funds rate is now 4-75 – 5% —– borrowing costs for banks. ROFL.
In real life banks take the higher end of federal funds rate into their accounting. Effectively, the banks are looking at at best a 25pt reduction on the spreadsheet.
This is a ridiculous calculus and basically means nothing in the real world.

Jeff is an enthusiastic peddler if one reads his headline : aggressive start to its campaign. Jerome, if you paid attention to his presser said no such thing. In fact jerome tried to reiterate that “we’re going to be making decisions meeting by meeting based on the incoming data …. that the actual things that we do will depend on the way the economy evolves we can go quicker if that’s appropriate we can go slower if that’s appropriate we can pause if that’s appropriate but that’s that’s what we are contemplating (powell around the 945 timeline)

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDJPY DAILY CHART – 200 day mva

Momentum shifting to the upside but would have to get through 9984, where the 200 day mva (yellow) is around there as well, to  confirm an end to the downtrend.

[GVI Forex 2]

JP, probably a bet on a soft landing and no recession

[Mtl JP]

GVI 12:09 / with stocks where they are did the market swallow jerome’s presser-reasoning he tried to emit for the 50pt cut ?

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD WEEKLY CHART – AND THE WINNER IS….

AUDUSD up 1% and so far the outperformer

On the downside, 2 levels to watch:

.6825 (key daily resistance broken) and 6800

Maintains a bid while above .6800, stronger bid if .5825 become support

Watch US equities, which are setting the risk on tone

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD MONTHLY CHART – MULTI YEAR HIGH

As we await the BOE decision, I had to go to a monthly chart to see the broader picture, which is GBPUSD trading to the highest levels since early 2022.

Closest key level is yesterday’s 1.3298 high, then a void above it.

Intra-day support starts at 1.3240

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART –

Looking at this chart, clear out the broken lines and it is 2500-2600 (record high), upside exposed as long as it stays above 2550.

To repeat what I posted yesterday:

XAUUSD extended its record high BUT THEN HIT A WALL AT 2600.

Look for support as long it trades above 2500-11 but unlike recent days, there are no stops to go for on the upside unless 2600 is taken out.

If it trades between 2500-2600, then 2550 will set its intra-day bias.

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks up => risk on => usd down but only AUDUSD among the majors has extended its high

Next up is the UK rate decision => no change expected

[SF Monedge]

Good thing I took a quick profit on the UsdJpy sell at the NY high.  This is follow through buying from large money with interest at 140 and it could stick.  Forward contracts and futures/options among other things were buying pre-Fed.

[Author]

Posts