[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

• Likely to stay within 25000-26000 ahead of the FOMC meeting with a tighter range at 25148-25830.
• No matter what happens after the FOMC, it would take a solid break out of 25000-26000 to be significant.

NAS100 DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Stock Market Wrap

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[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Market Wrap

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[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• • One more day until the FOMC decision with US500 likely to remain within 6800-6900 ahead of it.
  • Post-FOMC, you can see why bulls need 6791 to hold on the downside to keep the risk pointed up.
  • On the upside, 6895 blocks exposing the record 6925 high.

   

• US500 DAILY CHART
• 

[GVI Forex 2]

Brief stocks dip on JPM guidance

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[GVI Forex 2]

Brief stocks dip on JPM guidance

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[GVI Forex 2]

In our blog: A must read ahead of the FOMC

How Markets Really React to News: Understanding Expectations, Sentiment, and Price Action

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• Having once again fought off a test below 4200 (printed 6 days in a row), XAUUD would need to regain 4219 and see it become support if bulls hope to get back into control.
• BTCUSD back into plus territory for the year taking the limelight with XAUUSD in the background

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

BTCUSD (BITCOIN) UPDATE

• Despite the volatility, daily chart showing some upward momentum that would need to firmly take out 94K to accelerate it (void on chart above 94085).
• On the downside, 90K is clearly pivotal in keeping a bid after a brief break this week not following through.

BTCUSD DAILY CHART

[Mtl JP]

euro 1.1639
maybe 1.1650 s next
no guarantee

[Mtl JP]

On Deck
–
13:00 – bessent’s dept re-peddles USD39 Bln 10-Year paper

[Mtl JP]

They wont trade it coz their weekly salary is there regardless:

“Bubble conditions in US equities and gold?
Giulio Cornelli, Marco Lombardi and Andreas Schrimpf

Throughout the recent market rally, US equities and gold surged in lockstep. The sharp price increases of both assets and their growing presence on the radar screens of non-specialised media have attracted substantial investment flows from retail investors and sparked a debate over the possibility of asset price bubbles.

Bubbles are characterised by rapid and accelerating price surges – reminiscent of an explosive behaviour – followed by sharp corrections. However, the identification of a bubble remains an open question in the academic discourse: there is no reliable evidence that price declines following strong increases are predictable, making it difficult to disentangle irrational price movements from rational market responses to the underlying (and potentially unobserved) fundamentals. Statistical approaches, instead, abstract from fundamentals and focus squarely on the time series properties of the price process. More specifically, they leverage on the notion that bubbles typically feature “explosive behaviour” – the property that the underlying data-generating process exhibits non-stationarity and drifts upwards, hence giving rise to accelerating, or explosive, price surges.

To establish this, researchers can rely on so-called unit root tests while postulating that if a bubble exists the process exhibits roots above unity, which implies explosiveness.”

source: bis putzhood

[Mtl JP]

Lets these experts trade this:
“Bank of International Settlements warns of stocks, gold asset bubbles”

Volatility challenges risk-taking .pdf

Key takeaways
• Strong risk sentiment and expectations of policy easing supported risk assets, but growing wariness and
higher volatility increasingly challenged the risk-on mood.
• Despite some tensions in US money markets and lingering fiscal concerns in some countries, bond yields
moved sideways amid expected monetary easing.
• Emerging market economy assets weathered the trade tensions and benefited from benign investor risk
sentiment.

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update: Post JOLTS beat:

• 10-year yield up but off higs and back to unchanged on the day
• US stocks still consolidating and biding their time ahead of FOMC’

USD mixed

• Commodity currencies up on the day
• EURUSD back to pre-data levels after spike down
• JPY the underperformer, USDJPY extending its high

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) UPDATE

• Seems content to trade within 6800-6900 ahead of the FOMC
• Key levels are below/above at 6791 and 6925 (record)
• 6806-28 blocks 6791
• 6863 and 6895 blocks 6925

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

JOLTS beat (more jobs open)… Bond yields up, USD up

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[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

With a little over one day to go until the FOMC decision NAS100 seems content to trade within 25000-26000.

Levels to watch:

• Supports: Layers from 25150 – 25541 protecting 25000
• Resistance: 25830 (Monday high), 26273 (record high)

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NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

JOLTS report due next

See our Economic Data Calendar

[Mtl JP]

GVI 1:36 / euro’s price action is oscillating in a rather narrow range said the blind one

I am biased.
Currently – and still – I prefer to trade the puppy from long side or BoD

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 year yields dip… so far little correlation effect but bears watching

[GVI Forex 2]

French vote on Social Security budget scheduled for around 17:30 GMT

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD UPDATE

• JP’s preferred bias indicator is the 50 day mva
• Slope still downward but trading above it
• 1.1606 = 50 day
• Key support 1.1555
• 1.1650 has printed 6 days in a ro

EURUSD DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

ADP weekly jobs … no reaction

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[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Pre-Market Movers

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[Belgrade Bobby]

US Stocks Pre Market Gainers

[Belgrade Bobby]

US Stocks Pre Market Losers

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Resistances: 1.16600, 1.16850 & 1.17300

Supports: 1.16300, 1.16150 & 1.15900

Intraday game:

If above 1.16400 stays Bullish

If bellow 1.16300 becomes Bearish

[GVI Forex 2]

US bond yields remain a focus… off from yesterday’s spike to 4.192% but up from 4.15% intra-day low

[GVI Forex 2]

So much for an independent Fed although Fed Chair is only one vote

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[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News

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