[GVI Forex 2]

US CPI and Weekly Jobless Claims… see our Economic Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

With U.S. stocks at new records and devastating Hurricane Milton now weakening as it passes over Florida, the shifting U.S. interest rate horizon is back in focus with September’s key inflation update due on Thursday.

Despite the stormy weather and Middle East anxiety, U.S. economic soundings remain robust and Federal Reserve easing expectations continue to be dialled back – sending the dollar to near two month highs in the process.

Morning Bid: New stock records as storm passes and CPI due

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY CHART: 140-150?

Extended its recovery high but could not sustain a brief break above 149.50

I saw a bank forecast calling for a 140-150 range ahead of the March 31, 2025 fiscal year end.

I was also sent this:

The problem w reading “news” : BOJ may not be as dovish as Ueda’s cautious rhetoric suggests – Reuters

Whatever the case, 150 is clearly the pivotal level, especially with the 100 and 200 day moving averages (see chart) above 151.

Unless 150 is taken out, some will assume this is the top with the bottom somewhere between 145-148. To make a run at 150, 149.50+ would need t trade.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD Daily Chart – TESTS KEY RESISTANCE

When I start my day I scan the charts to see what catches my eye.

Today it has been USDCAD which tested 1.3738, the target following the break of 1.3647.

There are times that USDCAD act as a lead USD indicator so keep an eye on 1.3738 (and 1.3750 for confirmation should it be broken)

On the downside, support starts at 1,3690

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART 2600 HOLDING SO FAR

As I have been noting, 2600 is the key level on the downside in this retreat from the record high.

This chart is very clear: ,2605 is so far checking the downside but would need to move back above 2624 to shift risk back to 2650.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DAILY CHART – WAITING FOR CPI

Testing its 100 day mva (1.0933) with 1.0881 and the 200 day mva (1.0875) exposed as long as EURUDSD trades below 1.0950.

Next up are weekly jobless claims (distorted by Hurricane Helene>) and CPI. The latter i the key focus but unless 1.0850+ is renewed, risk will stay on the downside.

[Mtl JP]

Fed’s Daly sees one or two more interest rate cuts this year

By Reuters

(Reuters) – San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly on Wednesday said she “fully” supported the U.S. central bank’s half-of-a-percentage-point interest-rate cut last month, and said one or two more rate cuts this year are likely if the economy evolves as she expects. “The labor market has downshifted,” Daly said in an interview with KTVB anchor Carolyn Holly at Boise State University, adding she is now “quite confident” inflation is headed toward the Fed’s 2% goal.

“I do not want to see further slowing in the labor market.”

but you will mary. because it has to slow

[GVI Forex 2]

This blog article is worth revisiting as you saw today how stops drive the forex market

Forex Trading Tip: Watch Out for Stops and Use Them to Your Advantage!

\

[Mtl JP]

Bloomberg
Fed’s Collins Says
– “Half-Point Rate Cut Was ‘Prudent’ Given Risks”

[GVI Forex 2]

Any trader knows that trading is tough but I hope this makes it easier.

Day Trader’s Guide to Beating the Market

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD DAILY CHART – Retreating

Retreat from its record high continues and now dependent on 2600 holding or risk shifts to 2546.

On the upside, stays offered as long as it trades below 2624.

As I have been noting, the lack of a safe haven bid for despite rising Middle East geopolitical risk has contributed to the retracement.

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 DAILY CHART – ONLY 2 MORE HURDLES LEFT

As thi chart how there are two more resistance lines (blue) before exposing the record high, which would confirm new records in SP and DJIA.

In any case, needs to maintai 20K to keep thoughts of the record high on the radar.

[Mtl JP]

GVI 5:19

BITCHZ !

[GVI Forex 2]

CME FedWatch

With a 50bps rate cut at the FOMC all but factored out, the FedWatch odds are for 25bps vs no change

as the chart shows it is 77/23 in favor of a 25bps cut.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD DAILY CHART – ANOTHER TEXTBOOK MOVE?

This is another currency that is trading as PER THE WEKKLY FX CHART OUTLOOK— ABOVE KEY RESISTANCE AND THE 100 AND 200 MVAS… It now needs to stay above 1.3647 to maaintain the bid.

FROM THE WEEKLY CHART OUTLOOK”

Trying to build some upward momentum but would need to move above the 100 and 200 day would plus 1.3647 to suggest this is turning into an uptrend.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DAILY CHART – TEXTBOOK MOVE IN THE EURUSD

The following is the update in our Weekly FX Chart Outlook posted over the weekend

EURUSD WILL STAY ON THE DFENSIVE AS LONG AS IT TRADES BELOW 1.10

To accelerate the move to the downside, and expose 1.0880, 1.0949 would need to be firmly broken.

Note the 100 and 200 day moving averages (mvas)… potential targets if further momentum builds to the downside.

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily

Supports : 1.30550 , 1.30050 & 1.29400

Resistances : 1.31050 , 1.31250 & 1.31750

It should reach 1.29400, but it is stalling last 3 days – same as EURUSD.

So as long as below 1.31200 test of that channel line below should occur.

 

[SF Monedge]

Regarding Iran launching 1000’s of missiles if attacked, I think the western militaries should just obliterate their military in the span of 48 hours.  Not being a war monger but those sub-humans are a global threat especially if they achieve nuclear ability.  They have already been shooting missiles at allied targets.

[SF Monedge]

It is a bit of distance but I think 102.40 area is the safest area to wait for in DX under the war affected conditions.  I am in it from higher that that but very cautiously.

[GVI Forex 2]

S&P and DJIA setting record highs, waiting for NAS to confirm

Iran sabre rattling, threatening to launch 10009s of missiles at Israel if attacked so far having no impact.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0956

sooooo much s been said
sooooooo little done (trading wise)

must be some mysterious “hold” on the puppy
simple chart technical price-point not nuff, probably some fundamental OR some evil power-player ditzing with lesser player heads n patience.

what is there not to love about pulling and stretching tactics and strategy elasticity (or is it atrophy ?)

[SF Monedge]

Staying with DX momentum has been the safe play today regardless of what should or should not make sense.  Zero interest in calling tops or bottoms.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD break of 1.0950 looks like a typical stop hunt but downside at risk as long as it trades below 1.0970/80

Otherwise, to repeat, 1.0950 is clearly pivotal

[GVI Forex 2]

3rd time a charm. stops run at 1.0950… see if break holds.. in any case it is the clear bias setting level

[GVI Forex 2]

Commodity currencies under pressure but no signs of risk off in stocks

EURUSD again in sniffing distance of 1.0950, see if 3rd try weakens the level.

US news is focused on the approaching monster hurricane.

[michael Calif]

re-post:    per Law of Time there is a tradeable Low in EURUSD and a tradeable High in SP 500 both beginning today    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Wall St stocks roared back on Tuesday just as China doubts re-emerge – but a scattergun week now has investors navigating the impact from a potentially devastating hurricane in Florida and a recoiling oil price in the face of Middle East tensions.

Adding to this heavy and sometimes conflicting newsflow, the U.S. Justice Department late Tuesday said it may ask a judge to force Alphabet’s (GOOGL.O), opens new tab Google to divest parts of its business, such as its Chrome browser and Android operating system – claiming they sustain an illegal monopoly in online search.

Morning Bid: Braced for Milton as oil recoils, China retreats

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Monthly

For a third day in a row EURUSD are doing – nothing.

So to find a reason for it, one has to turn to the Big time frames.

Pivotal is at 1.09500 : If above – Bullish , if below Bearish – simple as that

Supports : 1.09500 , 1.08600 & 1.07250

Resistances : 1.11450 , 1.12150 & 1.13000

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – Correlation?

In the absence of fresh economic news, markets are like steering a boat without a rudder.

This leads to looking for correlations to steer the boat. In this regard, early USD strength seemed to correlate with weaker stocks, which have since recovered and the USD has backed off its day highs.

Note, correlations work until they stop working so keep an eye on Stocks to see if the pattern continues (or not).

As for U5500, trading with a bid (while above 5700) but consolidating unless 5758-73 are taken out.
‘

[GVI Forex 2]

Posted by JP:

EURO 1.0955 = Sup
the Qtn is . will it hold

and the A is __

JP, the answer to your question depends on whether there are stops below 1.0950. Right now there is a double bottom, suggesting someone defending this level but the more times a level is tested the weaker it becomes unless of course if it holds rock solid.

As I noted, test may have to wait until US CPI but in any case, a 50 pip range is too tight to last for long.

[Author]

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