[SF Monedge]

Puts are in charge in Loonie.  If flows remain consistent it won’t last very long.  Significant levels just below market in futures and options.  If it holds then UsdCad is going down again.  The problem is this is a very strong risk off environment so a bit dicey.  No one in their right mind is happy with the economic data coming out or trust the figures are truthful/accurate and there is significant GEO and political risk which began pricing in last week in general.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 1.2865

While EURGBP ha been helping to drive GBPUSD down, the biggest move has been in GBPJPY.’
‘
Charts show little below the market so use 1.2850 and 1.2800 a potential supports.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP DAILY CHART – BONDS SLIDE, GBP FOLLOWS

 

I said keep an eye on EURGBP for month end but did not expect the bond vigilante to attack and see that pPIll over to the GBP.

Either that or it is month end flows but whatever the case, the Oct high at .8434 and Sept high at 8463 are at risk  should .8505 become support.

[SF Monedge]

Yen futures and options could well dip a little again from here but overall they are going up and Usd/Jpy should remain under pressure overall, you just have to pick a good spot if not already in.

[SF Monedge]

Euro and a few other pairs are moving contrary to US stocks and data, much of that is almost surely due to month end adjustments as pointed out by Jay of Global View in here yesterday.

[SF Monedge]

Intel reported the worst results on record.  Administration sunk a ton of money into it.  Not good.

[SF Monedge]

Aussie futures are looking a smidge stronger.

[SF Monedge]

Loonie futures look like they want to go up.  Time will tell.

[GVI Forex 2]

Gilt yields spiking higher… GBP reacting but negatively

[SF Monedge]

October gains in S/P 500 have been wiped out as of this morning.

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks sliding… risk off… usd catching a bid

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks sliding… risk off… usd catching a bid

[GVI Forex 2]

Mixed reaction to US data

Month end flows seem to be dominating

Note EURGBP .8388 resistance close to tested

Offests helping to push EURUSD to a new high, now above its 200 DMA

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily

Supports : 1.29750 , 1.29400 & 1.29150

Resistances : 1.30000 , 1.30400 & 1.30650

Scenario Bullish :

–          Cable needs to overcome 1.30500 in next 48h and to stay above it

–          Support at 1.29400 must not be broken

–          Upticks would change to Up moves ( higher highs, but also higher lows )

Scenario Bearish :

–          Resistance at 1.30400 holds and moves lower to 1.30200

–          Support at 1.29400 lost

–          New low reached – below 1.29050

Right now both scenarios are possible based on the Pattern .

If we close tonight above 1.29800 probability will rise in a favour of Bullish scenario.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Cloudy outlooks from U.S. megacaps Microsoft and Meta combined with edgy government bond markets around the world to unsettle investors on Thursday, with the latest U.S. opinion polls showing next week’s presidential election is no foregone conclusion.

The week’s deluge of events and data releases continued apace overnight – shaded earnings beats from the latest two of the ‘Magnificent Seven’ firms, a Bank of Japan policy rate hold and a crumb of comfort for Chinese manufacturing.
Morning Bid: Megacaps spooked, world bonds on edge

[GVI Forex 2]

10 Year Bond Yield Snapshots

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD:

1.0870 = 200 DMA
1.0873 = key resistance (blocks exposing 1.09)

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR – READY FOR A PAUSE?

Calling a top in XAUUSD has been like standing in front of a freight train.

With that said, the 2789 high and a pivotal 2800 level above it argue for the risk of a pause but only confirmed if it can move back below 2770.

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 103.87
10-yr 4.294
–
Thursday morning: the personal consumption expenditures price index for September. This also happens to be the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect that the PCE grew by 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.1% from a year earlier.

This PCE reading, along with Friday’s October payrolls report, will inform the Fed’s interest rate decision on Nov. 7 when it ends its two-day policy meeting.

— brian evans, cnbc

[GVI Forex 2]

UK gilts yields sharply higher. Could be a reaction to yesterday’s UK budget but in any case, what is glaring is that higher yields are not helping the GBP  as yet but bears watching..

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – RISK OFF

i guess with hindsight one could say that a correction was overdue given the proximity of the Us election and uncertain outcome.

Using this CFD, .5763 is a key support, needs to hold to contain the downside. 5733/5700/5675 below it.

On the upside, back above 5800-05 would restore a bid.

Note tech dragging down stocks.

[ST London]

Our next starting point to sell USDJPY will be 155 through 157. Right now it is out of range.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – MONTH END

What caught my eye is GBPUSD holding the 1.2939 support again, helped by .EURGBP backing off its high.

Note what I posted about EURGBP and month end,

Otherwise,  2 week range 1.2907-1.3057 (see arrow)

1.30 is clearly the pivotal level.

[ST London]

My guess is BOJ was in on top.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Gap filled

Opening week gap filled

152 becomes the pivotal bias setting level.

151.44 is key support

Below 151.44 would shift risk to 150.

Resistance starts at former 152.41-75.

[GVI Forex 2]

One of more popular blog articles

Many international equity managers like to minimize the forex exposure of their equity portfolio and put on forex hedges to reduce that risk. Thus, at the end of each month they adjust the size of their hedges to bring them back into line with the current size of their portfolio.

What does this mean for the forex trader?

Have you ever heard of the term “month-end rebalancing?”

 

[GVI Forex 2]

BoJ meeting decision on Thursday… no change expected

[GVI Forex 2]

BTCUSD 4 HOUR – Record high still looms

BTCUSD came close to its record 73840 high but paused below it.

Risk stays on the high while above 70995 with a fallback bid as long it stays above 70000.

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 4 HOUR – Retracing off the high

Retracement from its high needs to hold 20306 to keep the current up episode intact.

Otherwise, risk is for 20122 but downside contained unless 20,000 is breached

So far, NAS100 came close but has yet to set a record (missed by 100 pts), thus not confirming the record high set in the Nasdaq Index. I am not sure how significant this is as it is a CFD but worth pointing out.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART – REVERAL OF FORTUNE

I feel like a parrot repeating to keep an eye on EURGBP if trading EURUSD and/or GBPUSD.

EURGBP’s  rebound from a failure to test .8295 yesterday, which lifted EURUSD while ultimately weighing on GBP{USD,  would need to take out .8380-88 to expose .8405.

Otherwise, look for .8350 to remain pivotal in setting the tone while it trade .8300-.8400..

Month end

EURGBP tends to be one of the more active month end flows, often on both sides at different times, so keep an eye on it Thursday, including its impact on EURUSD and GBPUSD.

[Author]

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