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GBPUSD 4 HOUR: Waiting for the BoE
Key level to watch is 1.3395 resistance, a likely place for stops and obstacle to shifting the risk to 1.3455-82.
On the downside, needs to hold the 1.3310 mini-breakout level to keep the focus away from the 1.3274 low.
Watch EURGBP (last .8568) as an indicator of post-BoE GBP sentiment.
XAUUSD (GOLD) 4 HOUR: Back to square one?
Tested both sides of its 3998-4116 range pre and post-FOMC, both sides holding (low 3996) so it feels like we are back toi square one.
Of the two sides the low is more important from a psychological point of view as it keeps the range above 4000 but only confirmed as the low if the 4116 double top is taken out.
Otherwise, expect choppy trade little in the way of stops within the broad range.
EURUSD 4 HOUR: Bullish pattern needs confirmation
On the verge of breaking a 7-day pattern around 1.14, which would send a bullish sign but only confirmed if 1.1482 is broken. High so far 1.1375.
As the chart shows, 1.1435, a min-breakout level yesterday, held as support today and needs to continue so to keep a bid.
Otherwise, focus shifts back to 1.14.
Note, move above 1.1450 created an outside week.
Forex Market Snapshot
The dollar is trading mixed to close to unchanged after slipping back from earlier highs, except vs. a firmer NZD and a modest bounce in the AUD.
This leaves some scratching their heads at the post-FOMC USD sell-off with a steepening in the US Treasury yield curve suggesting the Warsh led Fed is being seen as falling behind the curve by not raising rates.
Whatever the case, it is the reaction that matters and it has the USD trading more on the defensive.
COMING UP: Data: Japanese Consumer Confidence (Jul), French GDP Prelim (Q2), Spanish GDP Flash (Q2), Inflation Prelim (Jul), German GDP Flash (Q2), State/Nationwide Inflation Flash (Jul), Italian GDP (Q2), EU GDP Flash (Q2), Consumer Confidence Final (Jul), US GDP Advance (Q2), PCE (Jun), Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/25), Personal Spending (Jun), Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators (Jul).
Events: BoE Policy Announcement & MPR (Jul). Speakers: BoE Governor Bailey. Supply: Japan.
Earnings: Bristol Myers Squibb, Mastercard, Apple, Amazon, Adidas, BMW, Leonardo, Renault, Sanofi, Schneider Electric, SocGen, BAE Systems, British American Tobacco, Shell, Rolls-Royce.
Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Stocks hit as long-end yields rally post Fed
SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries steepen, Crude up, Dollar down, Gold up
Market Close: Indices
No bailout from the Fed or big tech earnings
US500 Tested its 7300 target following the 7375 break (next key level 7228 so 7300 likely to be pivotal)
NAS100 extending its low but so far pausing above next support at 26892, suggesting 27K will be pivotal iin dictating whether further momentum builds..
After the close
Stock futures rise as Microsoft jumps after earnings; traders hope to recover from Fed Day sell-off (CNBC)
Alphabet Inc. – GOOG
GOOG posted stronger-than-expected Q2 profit growth; cloud revenue rose 82% YoY. Company raised 2026 capex guidance to $205B from $195B, signaling faster near-term investment.
GOOG CDS spreads jumped to a record ~67 bps after Q2 showed negative free cash flow; traders noted higher perceived credit risk tied to debt for data centers, chips and AI models.
GOOG’s YouTube grew in UK 2025: TV viewing 19 min/day per person, total devices 41 min/day per person, weekly reach for 75+ viewers 33%.And yet here we are – struggling to fill up the gap from 5 days ago…340 is the level that represents now Major Resistance, endangering Google to the downside reaching 270..
US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR: Support holds but risk remains
With repeated attempts to test the 7375 lows stalling it would take a move above 7491 (and 7500) to negate the risk,
Otherwise, risk stays on the downside but contained unless the low is taken out. Shoud 7375 be firmly taken out, little on charts until 7300.
NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR: Trading on hope?
Holding above the 27444 low (27484 low) giving some hope for the battered bull side but would need to regain 28K (tested earlier) to slow the risk. Otherwise, risk stays on the downside.
Only above 28595 and the 4 hour trendline would negate the risk.
Focus looking ahead to the FOMC and big tech earnngs
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