[Adam Global]

GOLD 💛 found support on 3955.00 📈

Now everyone is aiming higher to 4055.00 as GOLD is trying 📈 to go back up again

[Adam Global]

AusUSD still battling 📈📉📈📉 0.6900 for the 5th day straight as everyone is waiting for a clear breakout

[Adam Global]

EURJPY is trading sideways today, after yesterday’s significant rise, having reached the 200-SMA at 185.00. The pair has been on an ascending route since June 24, when it found support at 183.15, giving the opportunity for further gains.

[Adam Global]

USDJPY 📈 hit 40yrs high reaching 162.40. Meanwhile, Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama said that the government was ready to take appropriate action against excessive currency moves as confirmed between Japan and the US.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR: WHIPSAW CITY

Stops run on the downside (low 3942) followed by a bounce back above 4000, leaving the latter as the key bias setting level going forward.

To make this anything more than a whipsaw, 4000 needs to become support followed by a move above 4100

[GVI Forex 2]

BofA stays bearish on S&P 500, says take profits in growth and rotate into large-cap value (full report on Newsquawk.com: Try free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

BofA says equity hedging may explain JPY weakness, sees risk-reward favouring long JPY (full report on Newsquawk: Try free for 7 days)

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News – 30th June 2026

• US President Trump’s envoys Kushner and Witkoff are flying to Doha for talks; Iran believes the trip is focused on ceasefire compliance, and is not there for talks with the US, NYT reported.
• US equity futures are slightly firmer (NQ +0.1%) and set for their biggest quarterly gain in 6 years.
• DXY strengthens, lifting USD/JPY firmly above 162.00; EUR weakness helped by cooler French and German State CPIs.
• Fixed income benchmarks higher but off best levels, with a busy central bank speaker slate ahead.
• Crude benchmarks dip again despite uncertainty over US-Iran talks in Doha.
• Looking ahead, highlights include German Inflation Prelim. (Jun), Canadian GDP (Apr), US JOLTs (May), Speakers include ECB’s Schnabel, Cipollone, Rehn & Lane, BoE’s Breeden, Earnings from Nike.

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Mtl JP]

offer vs demand
traders at large are supposed to believe that the price of oil is a question of
supply vs demand in which equation the supply is an uncertain ponderable and demand is either steady or increasing

[GVI Forex 2]

[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY gains, to the detriment of the JPY with USD/JPY firmly above 162.00; EUR digests dovish German State CPI (Newsquawk)

[GVI Forex 2]

MONTH/QUARTER END FOREX

EURGBP tends to be one of the more active flows around month end (especially around the 4 PM London fixng) so keep an eye on it, especially if trading either of the related EURUSD and/or GBPUSD pairs.

Key EURGBP support at .8602 (weekly shows .8595 as well), with a void below it.

Daily charts

EURUSD                             EURGBP                                      GBPUSD

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1392 as I type
“Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said there is a probability inflation “will stay at an elevated level.”

“The energy price shock… is still in the system. I suspect the inflation rate will stay significantly above our target,” – june 30 

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY MONTHLY

While all the talk is about a 40 year high, more significant is a breakout through 2-year 161.94 high (set July 1, 2024)

Using 162 as the pivotal (thought to be the MoF/ BoJ line in the sand) level‘

• If 162 becomes support then 163,50 becomes the next target with potential for 165.00 is broken.
• If 162 fails to hold, upside riSk cools and talk will be that the BpJ intervened.

[Mtl JP]

ST can it get more hilarious ?
–
The Japanese government – that would be takaichi – plans to include a call for “appropriate” monetary management in its Basic Policy on Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform, which is scheduled for release in July 2026. This wording in the draft policy guidelines is widely interpreted as an effort to discourage the Bank of Japan from implementing further interest rate hikes.
– various msm

[Mtl JP]

GOLD $4020-ish bounce off overnite $3942.6 LoD

[ST London]

UsdJpy: Risk of intervention makes market less long than otherwise would be the case given strength of the trend.

[Mtl JP]

USDJPY 162.40 – 3rd time poke on the hourly

“Japanese yen sinks to 40-year low, keeping intervention risks in focus”
screams Lee Ying Shan on cnbc 

as some grasshopper appears to resist 162.40

[ST London]

The yen ‌weakened to 162.41 per dollar for the first time in 40 years on Tuesday and was last at 162.23. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated the authorities stood ready to respond appropriately at any time, refraining from stronger rhetoric.

[GVI Forex 2]

COMING UP: Data: Japanese Unemployment Rate (May), Chinese NBS PMIs (Jun), German Import Prices (Jun), Retail Sales (May), Unemployment Rate (Jun), State/Nationwide Inflation Prelim. (Jun), UK GDP Final (Q1), French Inflation Prelim. (Jun), Canadian GDP (Apr), US JOLTs (May). E

vents: RBA Minutes (Jun). Speakers: ECB’s Vujcic, Elderson, Schnabel, Cipollone, Lane; BoE’s Breeden.

Supply: Japan. Earnings: Nike (Newsquawk)

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Stocks bid as tech rally boosts Nasdaq

SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries flat, Crude up, Dollar down, Gold down

REAR VIEW: US and Iran strikes resumed over the weekend, though reportedly agreed to halt strikes and meet this week; Iran rejects Trump’s claim that talks are to take place this week; Iran says delegation sent to Qatar regarding the release of Iranian frozen funds; SCOTUS rejects Trump’s power to remove Fed cook; CMCSA to spin off media assets.

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update

Little correlation from crude oil with XTIUSD bouncing and then consolidating waiting for the news from Gulf peace talks. EURUSD gaining a bid above 1.14 but would need to take out 1.1439 to confirm a break of momentum and shift risk the other way. XAUUSD on the defensive after hitting a wall below 4100. Level bulls do not want to see broken is 3983.

EURUSD                              XAUUSD                                        XTIUSD

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update: U500 and NAS100

Momentum broken to the downside but would need to move solidly above 7500 and/or 30K to regain a bid to build momentum the other way.

Wild card is month/quarter end rebalancing flows on Tuesday.

US500                                                              NAS100

[Mtl JP]

awww … just a titbit
“Military expenditure for the United States during the broader 2026 conflict averaged $314.8 million per day over 108 days, totaling over $34 billion. Specific operational costs included $6.5 million per day for each carrier strike group and high expenses for munitions, such as $2 million per Tomahawk cruise missile and $36 million per SM-3 interceptor.” – http://www.warcosts.org

[Mtl JP]

GOLD 4022
under $4500 and below its 200day
Support between 4000 and 3900 needs to hold lest puppy takes a trip towards +/- $3500
when things looks slow and improbable to the crowd, things have nasty habit of surprise and fast

[GVI Forex 2]

Prediction market vs the pros

The Dow Jones consensus expects nonfarm payrolls to drop off significantly from May, when job growth totaled 172,000, more than double the outlook.

Meanwhile, Kalshi traders see less than a 60% chance that job growth will surpass 100,000 and about 42% odds that it will cross over 125,000 jobs. (CNBC)

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update

Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Comcast, Charter Communications, Rocket Lab, Alphabet, Verizon & more (CNBC)

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update

Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Comcast, Charter Communications, Rocket Lab, Alphabet, Verizon & more (CNBC)

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR

There is a lot of talk about USDJPY trading to a 40 year high (161.96), but if you go back a year to the 1985 Plaza Accord, it was trading above 256.
‘
In any case, it has been a tug-of-war with weak JPY crosses seeing EURJPY and GBPJPY outperforming, giving support to EURUSD and GBPUSD while USDJPY stays poised just below 162 amid caution over an intervention risk.

 

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1416
–
yakkiddi yak squawk squak
The 2026 edition of Sintra – ECB Forum on Central Banking – is scheduled for 29 June to 1 July 2026 under the theme “Shaping Europe’s future: innovation, growth and stability”

13:30 Lagarde yaks in Sintra
odds are players are naively waiting for something that would affect euro’s course of its price.
—
puppy is currently wallowing and stretching and yawning inside 1.1350-1.1450
with a slight uPward bias

[GVI Forex 2]

U.S. SUPREME COURT DECLINES TO LET TRUMP REMOVE FEDERAL RESERVE GOVERNOR LISA COOK by a 5-4 vote

[Author]

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