[Belgrade Bobby]

Market Summary

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Weekly

For  a better perspective we are going to use Weekly chart this time…

Those historical channel lines/angles I mentioned on several occasions proved to be working – once again ( I heard some on the net calling them ” Psychic” , but I wan’t take it as an insult)….even I would really prefered that the support was broken and lower half of the current Channel revisted.

Now Close of this week above 1.14500 would be very Bullish on mid term, but without taking out 1.20000 this can continue to be a Range trading – between 1.13500 and 1.20000

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) 4 HOUR:  Bulls trying to regain control

Bulls trying to take control but to shift the focus to 4200, 4120 and then 4166 need to be taken out.

Otherwise, limit on the downside while above 4028.

[GVI Forex 2]

BoJ used all its intervention tactics today to spook the market

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[thomas pete macau]

This indeed gives Warsh an excuse to make monetary policy more loose.

Men learn from past mistakes.

DJT handpicked a disobedient Fed chair in his first term who failed to take his orders.

Guess DJT would not make the same mistake again in his second term.

[Mtl JP]

With reference to “Warsh’s Task Force Leadership and Objectives” in 12:42 post
specifically ref Balance Sheet Policy – which includes Federal Reserve repo (Standing Repo Facility)
–
AI investor Leopold Aschenbrenner forced to unwind all public stock positions after steep losses, sources say By David Faber, cnbc

fund grew to as big as $45 billion at the start of July before big losses took hold, according to a person familiar. .. hedge fund has sold all of its public stock holdings ..

Several of the firm’s prime brokers — including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase —have been working with the fund as it seeks to meet margin requirements or reduce positions in an orderly fashion …

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nasdaq 100 Index – NDX Monthly

In a very complicated Geo political situation last year and half, Nasdaq led the way to new all time high ( currently at 30.762 ) .

The question is “whats next” ?

If Support at 27.175 holds, we are looking at new highs, with imminent target in 32.250 area.

Decades of experience tell me that a new channel would open the way to 40.000 over period of about two years.

[Mtl JP]

EURUSD Support now:

[GVI Forex 2]

Market Update: USDJPY

See chart for levels.: Major support 155.02

160.07 = 100 day mva

157.85 = 300 day mva (see if 158 proves tough)

My thought: This may have been a pre-emptive strike to deter a JPY selloff after tomorrow’s BoJ decision.

 

[Mtl JP]

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ)  DAILY OUTLOOK:  Hope for the bulls

Pause below 26890 has given hope to the battered bull side after a bounce that would need to regain 28000-200 to cool the downside risk but only above 28595 would negate it.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500) DAILY: Mission accomplished

As pointed out, a break of 7374 opened the door for 7300, which was briefly broken yesterday without much follow through (low 7292)

On the upside, back above 7374 cools the risk but to say mission accomplished (i.e. low is in) and fully negate the downside it would take a break above 7490.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY: Another BoJ ambush

Sudden move from 162.80 =< 160.256 suggests BoJ covert intervention.

With the daily trendline broken, 160.40 would become resistance if the goal is to drive it back to 160 or below.

Note other currencies (and gold) following (i.e. higher)

 

 

 

 

[Mtl JP]

allegedly pain – the more of it – the better teacher
lets see
Analysis: Fed Chairman Warsh’s credibility in question after leaving interest rates unchanged Matt Peterson

… For a Federal Reserve chairman who prizes credibility above all other virtues, the market’s reaction to Kevin Warsh’s remarks Wednesday must have been painful. …

[GVI Forex 2]

US PRE-MARKET MOVERS: MSFT, META, QCOM, ARM, FTNT, MA, LRCX, SBUX, CVNA, BE

ES +0.7% NQ +1.6% RTY +0.6%

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Mtl JP]

Kevin “inflation is a choice” Warsh’s Task Force Leadership and Objectives

Co-led by three external advisors and supported by Fed staff to examine specific operational domains:

Communications: Led by Peter R. Fisher, Arminio Fraga, and Mervyn King to review how the Fed conveys policy deliberations and decisions.

Balance Sheet Policy: Led by Karen Dynan, Raghuram Rajan, and Jeremy Stein to examine the costs and benefits of the Fed’s current $6.7 trillion balance sheet regime.

Data: Led by Raj Chetty, Doug McMillon, and Kevin Murphy to improve the quality and timeliness of real economic signals.

Productivity and Jobs: Led by Marc Andreessen, Charles I. Jones, and Asha Sharma to assess the economic impact of artificial intelligence and new technologies.

Inflation Frameworks: Led by Greg Mankiw, Thomas Sargent, and William White to revisit how the Fed understands and responds to inflation drivers.

due by end of 2026

I ll be paying particular attention n scrutiny of the “Communications” report
I invoke Mark Twain’s “Figures Don’t Lie But Liars Do Figure”

[GVI Forex 2]

Weekly jobless claims (slight beat)

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

US June PCE

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

US Q2 GDP headline miss

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Mtl JP]

Forex 2 11:52 / … “US bond yields remain up but”…
bond types always discount the inflation-eroded purchasing value of the interest income they expect to receive over the contracted loan period.

what has to be dancing in their financial mathematical formulae is the odds of 6% inflation
because they too know that inflation is a choice

[Adam Global]

Us100Cash trying to recover yesterday’s drop 📉

[Adam Global]

GBPUSD hit 1.3400 after the steady official rates announcement

[Adam Global]

GOLD 💛 killed both buyers 📈 & seller 📉 with yesterday’s Federal rates staying steady now we’re waiting for advance GDP & Core price index

[Adam Global]

USDCAD is consolidating within a pennant formation, having found support near the 50-day SMA around 1.4050, with price action attempting to stabilize after recent losses

[GVI Forex 2]

Dollar remains on the defensive but so far with limited follow through

• EURUSD tested 1.1482 (high 1.1484) (last 1.1470)
• GBPUSD ran stops above 1.3395 (high 1.3407, last 1.3380)
• USDJPY (BoJ or not?) pause above 162 keeps focus on 163 (last 162.91)
• US bond yields remain up but off earlier highs (10 year last 4.691% vs. 4.712% high)

[GVI Forex 2]

BoE kunchanged as expected

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

Why bond markets gotr spooked

Morning Bid U.S.

A Reuters Open Interest newsletter

What matters in U.S. and global markets today
 
From Reuters Morning Bid U.S.

The Federal Reserve held the line on Wednesday, but three policymakers voted for a hike, the most significant dissent against a new Fed chair since 1970. This shows just why markets were so uncertain about the outcome.

The decision to hold did little to reassure markets, with 30-year borrowing rates jumping to their highest in 19 years and the yield curve steepening, suggesting traders are concerned that the Fed may tolerate above-target inflation over the long term.

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News – 30th July 2026

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR: BoJ ambush?

Sudden USDJPY plunge will likely raise speculation whether it is a BoJ ambush or a large sell order that spooked the market.

No signs of offsets in other currencies argue for a BoJ covert attack

In any case, 163.00 will be pivotal and sub-162 would be needed to build momentum on the downside. Low so far, 162.29.

 

[Mtl JP]

Waiting for the BoE … expected to stay pat (3.75%)

the policy-making heros are likely to pretend to be non-comital

[Author]

Posts