[SF Monedge]

For me UsdJpy is in a broader uptrend, is in a minor sell cycle withing that broader trend, and so I prefer the sell side still (although I was on the buy side last night in Asia from well below the figure and departed the trade nearing 154.50) this morning from 154.50 area.  I will most certainly be on the buy side on a good drop, and this activity represents the early stages of stabilization from below the figure.

[GVI Forex 2]

Keep an eye on US bond yields as FX has been correlating with the drop in yields.

 

[michael Calif]

Nov 20 repost:   Euro @ bear-trap Low; buying any and all dips    Option ZProfile gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

I was talking with JP last night as I call him The Master of Opening Week Gaps.

I asked him about the EURUSDD gap.

Hew said gaps almost eventually get filled but saw a risk to 1.0550 first.

1.0550- coinmcides wiuth the 1.0545-55 area I highlighted earler (scroll below).

Meanwhile EURUSD has broken above 1.05, see now if it can hold as that will dicate whether 1.0450 or 1.0550 is at risk.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

–          Big gap opening to the upper side

–          Sharp downtrend

Resistances : 1.05000 , 1.05150 & 1.05350

Supports : 1.04500 , 1.04200 & 1.03350

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART – GAP FILLED

Opening gap filled and then downside being tsted.

Key support is 153.23 but would have4 to get through 153.55 to expose it.

Watch 154.15, bre4ak needs to hold to expose 153.55.

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Weekly

–          Major Support was violated last week, but pair closed above it

–          To continue Down it has to decisively break below and stays below

–           On the other hand – if this was a Correction , time wise it might be end of it

–          Cable tends to have sharp turns – so be aware

Supports : 1.25350 , 1.24850 & 1.23850

Resistances : 1.26050 , 1.26500 & 1.27150

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

U.S. Treasury yields slipped back on Monday after Wall Street money manager Scott Bessent got the nod to be the next Treasury Secretary, with markets hoping his take on tax cuts and tariffs may at least be sensitive to edgy investor concerns.

Ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday week, President-elect Donald Trump ended intense speculation over the Treasury pick late on Friday and put Bessent forward for the job.

Morning Bid: Treasuries rally on Bessent pick, dollar retreats

 

[GVI Forex 2]

NEWSQUAWK US OPEN

Stocks firm, USD pressured & USTs bid on Trump’s Treasury appointment

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses & US futures begin the week on the front-foot, as markets welcome the nomination of Scott Bessent as Trump’s Treasury Secretary.

USD pressured and USTs bid following this, with the DXY sub-107.00 and the US yield curve bull-flattening FX peers generally benefit from the USD pressure, JPY outperformed overnight on favourable yield action and approval of Japanese stimulus

Crude in the red on Bessent, Israel-Lebanon and Iranian updates, Gas outperforms. XAU slipped below USD 2700/oz before recovering while base metals follow the tone though China performance capped

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 4 HOUR CHART =- FILL THE GAP

 

This is what a chart looks like when an opening week gap gets filled after holding 1.3924 support)

[GVI Forex 2]

Opening week gaps

Filled: USDCAD, AUDUSD, USDJPY

Unfilled: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, US stock indices

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART   FIBOS

XAUUSD upside stalling as a better risk tone has eased some of the upside pressure.

Treating the retreat from the high as a retracement, here are FIBOS for 2537-2721 (note 38.2% is also the “:50” level) USING OUR fIBONACCI cALCULATOR

[GVI Forex 2]

A weight on the USD to start the eweek was a drop in US bond yields

 

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART  MIND THE GAP

As I noted in this article 

Markets tend to factor in the worst and hope for the best. This is certainly true for tariffs as what shape they turn out to be will have an impact on the dollar, bonds and other markets as well.

This was the case to start what is not a normal week due to the upcoming US Thanksgiving Day holiday as seen by the opening week gap higher.

Levels to watch are clear, 1.0449-1.0551.

This suggests a firm break oof 1.0450 would be need to expose the gap while a firm break of 1.0500 would suggest a greater squeeze on shorts.

Looking at this as a retracement, here are FIBOS for 1.0935=1.0332 USING OUR fIBONACCI cALCULATOR

[SF Monedge]

Ok I’m in on that UsdJpy buy side trade literally exactly where I said I wanted it in the earlier post.  I am thinking it challenges 54.50 or higher at least.  Perfect execution that time.

[GVI Forex 2]

In our blog

What to Expect in the Thanksgiving Day Trading Week

 

[GVI Forex 2]

From Newquawk.com

[michael Calif]

Nov 14 repost:   Euro, Yen, and 10yr futures are Buyer ccontrolled.    Optionj Profiloe gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

US stocks opening higher, bond yields lower

[GVI Forex 2]

US stocks opening higher, bond yields lower

[GVI Forex 2]

No need that I have seen..

[GVI Forex 2]

No need that I have seen..

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

Germany’s Ifo business climate index is expected to decline slightly to 86.0 in November from 86.5 in October, indicating a modest drop in business morale. In the U.S., the S&P Case-Shiller house price index may show a slowdown in annual home price inflation, decreasing to 5.2% from 5.9%, while the FHFA house price index is projected to rise by 0.2% month-on-month. Consumer confidence is anticipated to improve in November, but new home sales are forecasted to decrease to an annual rate of 725,000 in October due to higher mortgage rates.

New Zealand’s Reserve Bank is likely to cut the official cash rate by 50 basis points to 4.25% amid lower inflation and an economic slowdown. In the U.S., pending home sales are expected to drop by 1.8%, and Germany’s consumer price index is estimated to rise by 0.2% monthly and 2.3% annually in November.

In Japan, payrolls are projected to rise for the 27th consecutive month, with unemployment steady at 2.4%. Industrial production is forecasted to increase by 3.9% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year. The Eurozone’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices flash estimate for November is expected to show headline inflation at 2.3% and core inflation at 2.8%, up from the previous month.

 

Econoday

[GVI Forex 2]

Opening week gaps… usd lower … searching for any news

[GVI Forex 2]

Opening week gaps… usd lower … searching for any news

[GVI Forex 2]

Opening week gaps… usd lower … searching for any news

[SF Monedge]

Yen futures trended down all of last week (strength in UsdJpy).  What I would like to see is a drop toward 153.80 so I can get on the buy side again and if it holds so will I.

EurJpy is going in the opposite direction of UsdJpy and for many a good reason.  Fundamentals matter and Europe’s economic ideologies are failing again albeit gradually.  Socialism is a wonderful idea because not everyone can work and people need help.  It has never worked however.  Hopefully some better ideas come about in years to come.

The US is about to go on an economic eruption unless it is sabotaged.

[GVI Forex 2]

Following the choice of a new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, I have added an addendum to this timely article.

Why the Choice of the US Treasury Secretary is Important for Trading.

[SF Monedge]

I would just like to comment regarding the price behavior of Thursday and Friday of this week.

A lot of people were waiting to pounce on a perceived bottom in Euro, Sterling, Swiss, and EurJpy at what amounted to mass positioning at a 6 month low being run through by a very aggressive sword.

Even a lot of professionals were hit hard there when markets fired through it like an out of control train.

So the question many ask is .. well then what use are pivots and if you only go with momentum or a combination you still don’t know positively what the outcome will be so what do I do?

1.      Don’t become top and bottom happy.

2.      Don’t think momentum is the only way to go.

3.      Never convince yourself you are perfect if you go on a long win streak.

 

Answer: Pick those spots but be fleet of foot to adjust when necessary even when it means taking a small loss and immediately going with the reverse of what you thought would transpire.

I have been at this for a long time and have dealt with a lot  of CTA’s on a personal level.  I was one, albeit small.

If you wish to converse I am very receptive and helpful and can be reached through Jay with Global View by email.

[GVI Forex 2]

There is a light economic calendar in the coming week but it pays to look ahead after the way the EURUSD reacted to the weaker PMIs on Friday

NewsquawkWeek Ahead:Highlights 25 th-29nd November 2024

 

[Author]

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