[SF Monedge]

I won’t touch OPEN again until it drops.

[Belgrade Bobby]

NIO Inc.

Nio has to take out 4.70 to be able to establish a footing and start Up.

However, if it drops below 4.35 will immediately target 4.00

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

Opendoor Technologies – OPEN

Declining trendline taken out – but Closed below – so do not jump on it – always remember : two consecutive closes…

Next hurdle is 2.55

As long as above 2.30 has a chance to continue Up.

[SF Monedge]

On Tariffs.

I could be completely wrong in my views on Tariffs but …

The Congressional Research Service notes that Trump’s approach to tariffs marks a departure from previous administrations, employing Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.

The Congressional Budget Office projects the 2025 deficit will approach $2 trillion. The Tax Policy Center estimates that Trump’s tariffs could reduce the deficit by about $200 billion, or roughly 10%.

The effect can benefit domestic companies by making  goods cheaper than imports and increase demand.

The US Trade Imbalance is almost 5 times that of the nearest deficit holder, Great Britain, almost 6 times that of France, and well over 10 times that of Japan.

The US Trade Deficit is enormous and out of control.

The current NAFTA agreement is out of balance as is the incoming USMCA agreement as is the BRICS agreement.

If the status quo remains intact the savings of US households will continue to deteriorate.

In 2023, China registered a trade surplus of over 823 billion U.S. dollars, ranking first among all countries and territories. The United States was this year’s largest source of trade surplus for China, with a trade balance of approximately 336 billion U.S. dollars.

Tariffs are expected to drag on the US Dollar.  The irony is that, if so, may also act as a buffer to any aggressive declines should they occur.  On the contrary, import prices could gradually increase.  But so could domestic producer prices and savings accounts.  There is no pure glass of milk in this.

The finances of the US are basically on borrowed money and borrowed time.  Federal special interest spending has been so insanely allocated to projects such as financing of child sex mutilation research in favor of special interest groups at a level that would make Dennis Rodman shake his head.

Something has to give.

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin

Close tonight above 97.500 opens a road for attempt at the new high – over 100K

I am talking strictly technical – my ideal target is at 108.500 – that would establish a range between 85K and 110K in weeks to come.

[SF Monedge]

I’m out of the UsdChf buy side small +.  Franc futures are fairly sturdy.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBP buying. EURGBP selling at month end fixing

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 year 4.215%

Note FX correlation (USD up)

Waiting for London fixing and early exits

[SF Monedge]

Peso futures are pulling up so the sell side of UsdMxn may offer a good buy side price coming up.

[GVI Forex 2]

US yields sllding but how much is due to month end rebalancing? We may have to wait for Monday or the early close today. Note Gewrman yields have fallenm sharply over this period as well.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily – Month end

As I mentioned yesterday, we have seen another Uptick today, but not even close to notorious 1.06100.

Next is to see where are we going to close tonight…

Two options :

–          As long as it closes above 1.05300  pressure to the upper side will continue

–          If eurusd manages to fall below 1.05050 and closes there – sharp move down on Monday

Supports : 1.05250 , 1.05050 & 1.04750

Resistances : 1.05950 , 1.06100 & 1.06600

[SF Monedge]

The standout positive I see today is the president of Mexico stating a tariff war can be averted since her meeting with Trump.  The other wars are still present and it appears the Lebanon ceasefire has already been breached.  So the unsettled Geo condition prevails for now.  All things considered I am patiently waiting for UsdChf to pull up for a sell side entry but not sure we get enough movement today.

One might expect a stock picking environment today.

[SF Monedge]

Yen and Euro futures are trending up in the broader picture.  Anticipating a bit of selling in UsdJpy and EurJpy but there is no data and it is a Friday following a holiday and so it is difficult to expect much.  Prices are also not in prime spots for entry so new entries at current levels are not optimum and subject to reversal.  A bit risky with these pairs this morning if you are not already in positions.

[GVI Forex 2]

At the mercy now of month end flows in a thin market.

Key time is 4PM London fix

[GVI Forex 2]

Here’s a thought

If you are betting on a lower USD you are counting on bond yields moving even lower and they have already come down a lot

[GVI Forex 2]

Black Friday Special

[GVI Forex 2]

p style=”text-align: center;”>Black Friday Special

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Open

USD knocked by a stronger JPY, EUR unreactive to Flash HICP

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start!

Here are the top 5 things you need to know for today’s market.

5 Things You Need to Know

European bourses near unchanged while US futures are modestly firmer post-Thanksgiving

USD knocked by a stronger JPY. EUR unreactive to Flash HICP

Fixed benchmark in the green, OATs in focus awaiting a Le Pen decision

Crude diverges given the lack of settlement but benchmarks are at the lower-end of c. USD 1/bbl parameters

Metals in the green, gold gleans support from the USD and punchy language around Lebanon

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

While Americans have been feasting and preparing to shop, U.S. Treasuries have put in a decent rally this week – countering considerable post-election fiscal anxieties as world bonds find a bid more broadly.

While the holiday week and month-end position squaring may explain some of the peculiar subsidence in government yields, the move partly reverses at least one of the prevailing ‘Trump trades’ and has dragged the lofty dollar (.DXY), opens new tab down wi

Morning Bid: Bonds in vogue on Black Friday, yen pops

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform like a heatmap… JPY vs the world

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART –

Trying to build monentum for a run at the rerord 2721 high, 2688 standing in the way.

To negate the risk 2620 would need to be broken… for day trading, supports at 2658. 2650, 2633

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Month end

Finds a bid IF it can stay above 1.0550 but would need to break 1.0610 to make this more than a retracvement, note the word IF

Note this is month end (and not a normal one due to the US quasi holiday) where EURGBP flows are often an influence so keep an eye on this cross.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART -WATCH 150

Expect sell on blips as long as it stays below 150.50

Close of the week will be importamnt vs the obvious pivotal level at 150

[GVI Forex 2]

Black Friday and also month end

Half day for US stock and bond markets

Most take 4 days weekends in the US

Many trading desks skeletal staffs

Liquidity is thin

[SF Monedge]

Selling EurJpy is working very well.  I can find no fundamental reason to buy that pair for now.  It has made me over 500 points since Sunday.  It requires patience.  That said, the sell wave is almost at the point where there is a rebalance in markets to the upside.  It won’t last more than a few days.

I am a former CTA.  I learned a thing or two.  Buy wave pending.  Sell it.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY tests 150 after Tokyo area CPI jump raises talk of BoJ hikimg rates.

Scroll below for Bobby’s USDJPY tupdate

[GVI Forex 2]

Prop Trading: How to Get a Static Drawdown

One of the advantages held by prop firms is the relative drawdown rule. This tilts the playing field in favor of the prop firm as the trader cannot just risk profits, as he/she might do with a broker account, otherwise wise known as ta trading with house money.

Instead, when trading a prop account, whether in the test or funded stage, the trader must be aware that there is a drawdown limit based on the high watermark. This is in contrast to a static drawdown calculated from the initial deposit regardless of how much profit is in ther account. Note. There is a broker offering static drawdowns (scroll below).

Let’s take a look at relative vs. static drawdowns</strong>

[GVI Forex 2]

Black Friday Special

[SF Monedge]

You know there is something wrong with you when almost the first thing you do on a holiday morning is peer into markets, closed or not.

The way I see it the big question is have the Trump trades been just a reaction or will the condition stick, and what will the volatility look like going forward.

1.      I think we see continuation of current/recent conditions overall.

2.      The more unanswered questions are solved the less uneasiness there will be.

3.      Some developments will cause further chaos such as what we have seen in non-US Dollar vehicles.

4.      The irony is Trump’s aggressiveness will yield stability in areas where there was little prior.

5.      There will be structural improvement.

The bottom line is there is a mountain of repair work taking place already before he even gets into office. The arrangement with Mexico yesterday is an example.

The one that is bothering me is the monstrosity Yellen, the Fed and the others have left us with relation to deficits, including the trade deficit which is has been so far out of balance it has knocked the purchasing power of the US Dollar down to roughly 5 cents on the Dollar as compared to 1918.

(I spend countless hours into the wee hours of night in analysis).

The bottom line should be a long running bull run in US stocks, strength in micro-cap stocks as well including MSCI as a carry over benefit.

Continued Dollar strength overall for the long haul with some intermissions.

[michael Calif]

Nov 17 re-post.    BTC Top expected @ 96000.    Option Profile gtwo3

[Author]

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