[GVI Forex 2]

Pivotal level day

EURUSD -.1.05 clearly pivotal after brief break below it (low 1.0488)

AUDUSD – .6350 is pivotal after brief break of major .6358 support (low .6340)

USDJPY 151.50 nand 152 are both pivotal, so far staying below it after trading above it yesterday

GBPUSD- Lagging EURUSD as EURGBP remain soft biut 1.2750 is pivotal here as well

[GVI Forex 2]

I wish I had a crystal ball so fasten your seat belts for the US CPI ride

Using my platform as a heatmap, USD is up excdept vbs JPY and an unmchanged CAD

[Mtl JP]

players playing ECB on Thursday
105.05

Sup 1.0475/70. Res 105.50

[GVI Forex 2]

Waking up to some headlines and a firmer USD and there is still US CPI and BoC rate decision to come

Chinese authorities are considering a weaker yuan as Trump trade risks loom, sources say

Germany’s Scholz to Submit Parliament Request to Hold Confidence Vote

[GVI Forex 2]

Click below for a detailed preview of US CPI scheduled for Wednesday

Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights 9-13th December 2024

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY Daily

Supports : 150.900 , 149.350 & 148.650

Resistances : 152.450 , 153.250 & 153.950

Yen has to go above 153.950 to be able to sustain this previous rally .

First real hurdle is 152.450 – if it cuts short attempts to continue Up, USDJPY will face a danger of revisiting 143.450

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Resistances : 1.05450 , 1.05950 & 1.06350

Supports : 1.04950, 1.04600 & 1.04250

There is still an Up angle , but this is not a real Up trend !

Momentum is nonexistent and we’ll have to wait for Thursday ECB Interest rates decision and a reaction to it

For now try to play within given parameters – 1.0550 is a pivotal right now.

[Belgrade Bobby]

XRPUSD

After sharp drop , XRP came back with the vengeance – around 20% run from the daily bottom.

As long as it trades above 2.00 should be considered Bullish.

If it takes out 2.65 again, we should be in for the new high.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – HGH IS IN FOR NOW

As noted yesterday, failure to take out 6100 finally caught up to US500, where a break of .6062 says this latest episode to the upside has topped out for now.

To suggest a retracement risk, the 6062  (red) line would need to become resistance.

There are layers of support to get through but key area would be around .6000;.

Next event risk: US CPI

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD DAILY CHART –  2700+ Looms

Firm move above 2666 shifts the risk to 2721… a move above 2721 would put 2750-90 (the record high) in play again.

Otherwise, expect support on dips if XAUUSD trades above 2656-66

[Belgrade Bobby]

NIO Inc.

Nio got rejected just below 5.50 – we should be looking at that level as a pivotal point.

Right now 4.70 serves as a first support and if holds we might have another sharp attempt to Up.

However, more important is 4.50 – that one should serve as a foothold for building an Uptrend.

Below 4.50 won’t be good….

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART –Watch 152

Performed technically with the break of 151.21 leading to a test above 152.

152 becomes the pivotal level with a void of key levels above it other than FIBOS

Back below 151.50-, at a minimum, would be needed to ease the risk, below 150.90 would negate the risk.

Event risk: US CPI… new ball game after its release.

[GVI Forex 2]

Michael… can you explain what you mean by long?

Is it trading from the long side?

Is it long through options?

Is it buy and hold?

[michael Calif]

Nov re-post.   daily charts.    Law of Time remains Long Euro, Yen, and 10yr futures.    Option Profile gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

Nice EURUSD bounce from 1.,05…Key day level still 1.0534…No news, amany in their bunkers waiting for US CPI.

[GVI Forex 2]

A Case for a Hawkish Fed Rate Cut Decision

While attention is on the December 18 FOMC decision, where a 25bps rate cut is widely expected, the focus should quickly shift to looking ahead. This is especially true if the Fed decision is viewed as a hawkish rate cut.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 15 MINUTE – EURGBP driving the bus

Another neat Amazing Trader chart

Algebra 101

EURUSD held 1.05 – for EURGBP to go lower, GBPUSD had to do the work.

[SF Monedge]

A 50% chance that Sterling stalls here near 2755 exists.

[GVI Forex 2]

SF, you should differentiate between a longer term view and day trading.

Re GBP, keep watching EURGBP (last .8241) for a flow keeping a bid under GBPUSD

[SF Monedge]

Jay 3:36 Pt 2  —  As usual it is only a matter of minutes before what I see and post here transpires.  Sterling for example bounced right after I suggested its futures contracts would bounce.  But it would be inadvisable to suggest that intraday buy cycle will persist.  I am eyeballing 2775 for first re-entry on the sell side and a bit higher nearer the figure to add (priority 1 is to establish a position in case it runs out of gas at the first area).

[SF Monedge]

Jay 3:36 – I am all about strong US Dollar going forward.  Any counter flows should definitely be treated as such.  I hope the only people who test that condition are bad people and not nice people.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD tests 1.05… no news… US bond yields still creepintg higher (10 year 4.242%)

USDJPY is above 152 – FIBOS (156.72 – 148.65)

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 15 MINUTE – Defense?

This amazing Trader chart is too neat not to post it.

Double top at 1.4195 suggests there may be a defense oif the 1.42 (options?) level.

[SF Monedge]

An aspect of price behavior I am perpetually dialed in on is what kind of valuations the market is presenting in the US session.  Some weeks there are very good price levels presented and other weeks the optimum levels are presented in the European session, and at times the Asian session.

Two weeks ago there were optimum valuations presented in the US session all week long and your precision could be near perfection.  Last week the condition remained good but was not optimum.  So far this week the levels presented are gone before the US session.

Your participation has to take that into consideration.  How do you approach that?  Patience.

[GVI Forex 2]

SF if you are betting on a weaker uSD then you are betting on a downside miss in CPI, a dovish Fed. or seasonal factors.

By the way, USDJPY perfrorming technically after breaking 151.21

[SF Monedge]

The next near term cycle for Sterling, Yen, Aussie, Euro, Peso, and Franc futures should be the buy side.  The level of conviction on that side I would not expect to be overly robust.

Yen is a bit different.  The BOJ interest rate decision is on December 19th.  Japanese 10yr rates are now sitting at early July highs and after attempting to go higher stalled at the same spot on November 11th.

So if it stalls here again that is three stalls.  One might think this is the tail end of pricing in and reaction to the last action by the BOJ.

Therefore calling a bottom in Yen futures (buy side top of spot pairs) is a bit dicey since the rates could drop and Yen futures with it.

[SF Monedge]

EurChf sell side looks decent from 9280 or higher (better) to me.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD 30 MINUTE – BID AHEAD OF BOC

With the BoC expected to cut rates by 50bps tomorrow, it should not be a surprise to see USDCAD trading with a bid.

The surprise was yesterday’s brief retracement that found supoport below 1.41.

The high set earlier at 1.4195 is key resistance although 1.42 is likely even more important with 1.4661, a 5-year high as the major level.

On the downside, 1.4150-57 needs hold to keep the bid.

[GVI Forex 2]

It feels like a day before the next storm (US CPI)

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR – 1.0500-50

Trading bearish while below 1.0550 but only sub-1.05 would expose supports (1.0472, 1.0457, 1.0425).

Back above 1.0534 would be needed to shift tisk from 1.05 back to 1.0550

[Author]

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