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EURUSD What a difference a day can make
- At this time yesterday I was talking about the importance of the 1.1550 level (and a limited USD upside ahead of Powell’s speech) and now resistance just below 1.1650 (1.1648) is the technical focus.
- Why 1,1648? To fully negate a lingering downside risk, 1.1648 needs to be taken out
- Support: 1.1631, former resistance (stops run overnight) so far not holding as support, potential to be as pivot.
- Below 1.1631, intra-day momentum is still up while above 1.1616. Fallback support is at 1.1600.
EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART
XAUUSD. Why 4200 is important
Pattern repeats:
- Sharp but short-lived retracements followed by new record highs. Yesterday;s 4189 => 4090 retracxement didn’t even last a day
Unchartered waters:
- When in uncharted record high waters “big figures (round numbers), such as 4000, 4100, 4200 etc increase in importance in the absence of any historic resistance on charts.
- But not all big figures should be treated the same (e.g. 4200 is more significant than 4100 or 4300).
- So pay attention to the new record high above 4200, now the pivotal level – above it targets 4350 with the next pivotal big figures at 4500 while below slows this runaway’s train.
- Intra-day support starts at 5180-5200
Markets struggling to find a common theme without USD data as it reacts to the latest headline
- Will another new French government fall? (event risk)
- Ongoing US government shutdown with no end in sight (not a factor yet)
- Uncertainty over next Japan government (so far not a factor)
- Will US-China trade war escalate? (biggest risk to markets)
- Expectations of rate cuts amid a divided Fed (2 more cuts this year being priced in)
NAS100 (NASDAQ) U.S. vs China Headline Risk
- Trying to build momentum off a higher low (24235) but it is hard to suggest follow through given the risk of a U.S.-China trade/tariff war headline.
- Like US500, this suggests more choppy trade unless either side of 23975-25205 is broken.
US500 1 HOUR CHART
XAUUSD (GOLD) Trying to rebuild momentum
- Range is clear at Tuesday’s 4090-4180 (record high)
- It would take more than a short-lived retracement and a break of 4090 and 4040-70 for bulls to give up the fight.
- Otherwise, consolidation while with the range if the mega trend needs to take a breather.
XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART[JM1]
[JM1]
Markets taking Poiwell comments as dovish, especially equities
Little FX reaction to Powell speech although stocks extending rebound
XAUUSD (GOLD) Trying to rebuild momentum
- Trying to rebuild upward momentum after the sharp retreat from the new record high (4180) found support below 4100 (4090)
- For that to occur 4144 would need to be broken and then become support.
- Otherwise, dependent on 4090-97 holding to keep the focus on 4100+
XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART[JM1]
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