[Mtl JP]

and so 10-yr closes in on 4.60% day’s high
at days end 3:53 PM EST

[Mtl JP]

with 16 days and 21hrs to inauguration
–
one less obstical just POOF!d away as
Johnson Wins Reelection as House Speaker

[GVI Forex 2]

FWIW it looks like stocks will break a 5-day losing streak.

[GVI Forex 2]

I was just asked where I get my chart levels from as EURUSD bounced off 1.0273 (see below)… last 1.0292

They come from my Amazing Trader charting algo

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD pop and drop on the ISM… 1.0288 break confirms the top,… see if 1.0279 can hold… if not then 1.0264-68-73… looks like a case where algos ran stops above 1.0303 and then took the elevator down

[GVI Forex 2]

ISM PMI

Miss on upside and higher prices paid

Employment misses on downside

[GVI Forex 2]

Next up ISM PMI… USD down on the day except vs CAD… stocks up but day is young… EURUSD so far not confirming (see prior update)… 1,03 is pivotal

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 15 MIN CHART –Out of steam?

Retracement showing signs of running out of steam… needs to break the trendline and 1.0279 (target) to confirm

[GVI Forex 2]

Tks JP,

Next hope for movement is the ISM MFG PMI but looking at the forcast it should be a non event unless there is a miss

See our Economic Data Calendar

[Mtl JP]

9:21 – Jay / excellent succinct summary perception of market theme and dynamics

[Mtl JP]

heatmap
–
DLRX 108.78
some metrics suggest stretched, but sofar by no means done stretching just yet. just not at pace seen recently.

unless players , for some reason, abandon pricing donald incoming premium IF his trumpeted policies should POOF! somehow

[Anonymous]

Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures Streaming Chart

See the Weekly one at link.

I’d say very bad for European equities, indexes more than else.
https://www.investing.com/commodities/dutch-ttf-gas-c1-futures-streaming-chart

[GVI Forex 2]

NEWSQUAWK US OPEN

US equity futures gain, USD is a little lower ahead of US ISM Manufacturing

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses are generally lower whilst US futures gain modestly.

USD is a little lower, holding around the 109.00 mark.

Mild divergence in fixed income, USTs a little higher whilst EGBs are pressured

Commodities fail to benefit from a softer Dollar as crude gives back recent strength.

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[GVI Forex 2]

Reuters – A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Samuel Indyk

2025 has kicked off how 2024 ended: stocks are having a wobble and the dollar remains in charge as investors bet that Fed rate cuts will be few and far between this year.

Data on Thursday supported that view, with the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits dropping to an eight-month low last week.

A robust labor market should stamp out any near term expectations for rate cuts from the Fed, with lower borrowing costs now conditional on a worsening employment picture and softer inflation.

Morning Bid: Wall St on five-day falling streak, dollar reigns

[Anonymous]

2025 is 80 years since the end of World War II

I do hope some to remember!

Or have We entered an Era of a Cultural-Political Ball?

 

 

[Anonymous]

“The global gas balance remains tight with little flexibility to absorb any significant market tightening effects so it is possible to see prices rise substantially in the coming weeks,” said James Waddell, head of European gas and global LNG at Energy Aspects.

Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, was little changed at €50.20 a megawatt-hour at 8:41 a.m. in Amsterdam.

European Gas Set for Weekly Gain as Supply Risks Rattle Market

[GVI Forex 2]

Reuters headline

‘Wall Street Extends Losing Streak as Nasdaq and S&P 500 Hit Five-Day Decline

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD ONE HOUR CHART – DAY 2 CONSOLIDATION

Very similar update to the EURUSD

Thursday’ breakdown through 1.25 leaves 1.2457 as key resistance. Treat any bounce as a retracement unless 1.2457+ is regained.

On the other side, the deck is cleared of key stops until 1.2352 so call it consolidation as long as it trades within 1.2352-1.2457.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD ONE HOUR CHART – DAY 2 OF 2025

Thursday’ breakdown leaves 1.0334 as the key resistance level, treat any bounce as a retracement unless 1.0334+ is regained.

On the other side, the deck is cleared of key stops until 1.0224 so call it consolidation as long as it trades within 1.0224-1.0334.

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows the dollar trading softer as it consolidates after Thursday’s fireworks,

Be aware that the start of a new year often sees false starts and choppy trading as markets slowly return to full liquidity, I am not saying USD strength is a false start but just pointing out the sharp moves yesterday came in thin liquidity so some backing and filling should not be a surprise.

 

[Mtl JP]

Always … some losers and some winners
–
What Next for US LNG After Ukraine Gas Transit Halts?
By Alex Kimani – Jan 02, 2025, 3:00 PM CST
Exports of Russian gas via pipelines running through Ukraine finally came to an end on New Year’s Day.
Ukraine will lose up to $1 billion a year in transit fees from Russia – Gazprom will lose close to $5 billion in gas sales.
The United States is likely to emerge as the biggest winner of the unfolding situation in Europe.

srce.: oilprice.com

[Mtl JP]

Perrie Como Gorizia / neither. it is a plan in action.

[Anonymous]

EU Energy Crisis Deepened As Norway Gas to EU is Also Cut: Bad Luck or Karma?

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 1 HOUR CHART Day 1of 2925

Needs to take out 21285-21305 to suggest an upside risk but as I have been noting it is hard to draw conclusions from the first day of the new year.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 1 HOUR CHART-Typical first day?

Choppy first day after failing to hold an early rally.

To suggest more than just a sparring match either side of 5800-6000 would need to be firmly broken. Assuming this is the broad range, then 5900 acts as the pivotal level.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Bitcoin – BTCUSD Daily

Resistances : 99.750 .00, 100.120,00 & 104.030.00

Supports : 93.350.00 , 92.750.00 & 89.365.00

In the New Year with the New Attempt Up.

99.750 is crucial level – if taken out we’ll be seeing test of 110K

However, failure to do so will result in deeper correction to at least 87K levels

In my opinion – this is a Top creation in process….

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART – Positive start

While it is hard to draw conclusions from the first day of the new year, XAUUSD is starting out on a positive note.

Keep an eye on 2650 as above it is needed to build momentum,

Keeps a bid while above 2630.‘

[Anonymous]

„We need gigawatts“ EURUSD

The German energy industry is calling for the expansion of gas-fired power capacity, and a reduction in the electricity tax. It wants the next government to move quickly after the February election.

Berlin, January 02, 2025, 1:02: Uhr
https://www.boersen-zeitung.de/english/gigawatts

[GVI Forex 2]

Meanwhile, bond yields pop up, stocks retreat…

[Anonymous]

What does he says? EURUSD 1.0250 iw key support …
Beware low liquidity risk adjustments later on.
P

Why J.D. Vance Wants a Weak Dollar. Is That a Good Idea?

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/why-jd-vance-wants-a-weak-dollar-is-that-a-good-idea.html

[Author]

Posts