[Mtl JP]

the flavor is …
that DX 99.50 is likely the top

and 98.70 first support altho, imo, weak.
lower is likely likely, again imo

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) A critical level for GOLD

This is a critical time for the runaway train mega uptrend as 4200 is one of those key pivotal levels that can either indicate a pause (if below it) or open the door for higher if it becomes solid support.

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART[JM1]

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) A critical level for GOLD

This is a critical time for the runaway train mega uptrend as 4200 is one of those key pivotal levels that can either indicate a pause (if below it) or open the door for higher if it becomes solid support.

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART[JM1]

[GVI Forex 2]

I call it identifying the flavor (flow) of the day:

EURGBP sell order (last 8697)… market having more trouble absorbing the GBP buyiung than EUR selliing in tug-of-war trading.

Price action suggests real money sell order.

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) 25000 looms again

• Like US500, building momentum off a higher low (24235) but still in its range (but with a bid) while below the 25205 record high.
• Immediate obstacle is 25000, exposed while above 24872.

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

For FX traders:

EURGBP 8713 =-> 8705  (addendum: traded to 8701)

EURUSD 1.1631 => 1.1522

GBPUSD trading with a bid

How You Can Use Currency Crosses to Trade Spot Forex

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Stock Specifics

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[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Stock Market Earnings Update

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[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500): Trying to build momentum

• Building on higher low but only a break of the record 6768 high would take it out of its range.
• This suggests a consolidation range with a better bid while above 6625.

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

For FX traders, the pop in EURGBP is behind the pop in EURUSD and dip in GBPUSD. Market had more trouble absorbing the EUR buying.

EURGBP 15 MINUTE CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Equity Opening News

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[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD; Recovery faces resistance

• Sell-off on the UK jobs report yesterday did not last long
• Above `1,3352 broke momentum to downside but would need a firm move above 1.3370 (high 1.,3373) to suggest more scope to the recovery
• Even then there are layers of resistance above the market.
• Intra-day supports: 1.3335, 1.3314

‘GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Finally some data (not top tier) … and a beat

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[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD turned more defensive below 1.1631 but so far holding above 1.1616, needing to hold to keep a bid and thoughts away from 1.1600

EWURUSD 15 MINUTE CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

MS beats

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[ST London]

Gold is back to $4200

Is it time for a time out?

[Mtl JP]

A Series Of Rate Cuts

Dollar’s struggles deepen as traders focus on Fed cut bets
By Kevin Buckland on Rtrs

– Fed’s Powell says US shutdown has not yet clouded economic picture
– Markets pricing in Fed rate cuts for both October and December
– Beijing sets strongest yuan fix in 11 months despite trade spat

TOKYO, Oct 15 (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar dropped against a basket of peers on Wednesday after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell bolstered bets on a series of rate cuts in coming months.

[Mtl JP]

What is a bloke like me to make -trade-wise – of these two headlines
–
“China’s Communist Party meets for its next five-year plan as U.S. rivalry deepens” cnbc

Deflationary pressures persist in China on weak demand, overcapacity – rtrs
Deflationary pressures persisted in China, with both consumer and producer prices falling in September, supporting the case for more policy measures as a prolonged property market slump and trade tensions weigh on confidence.

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News

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[Mtl JP]

legts call it “reform” shall we

“Tax rises and spending cuts in the cards, UK finance minister hints”
– cnbc

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD What a difference a day can make

• At this time yesterday I was talking about the importance of the 1.1550 level (and a limited USD upside ahead of Powell’s speech) and now resistance just below 1.1650 (1.1648) is the technical focus.
• Why 1,1648? To fully negate a lingering downside risk, 1.1648 needs to be taken out
• Support: 1.1631, former resistance (stops run overnight) so far not holding as support, potential to be as pivot.
• Below 1.1631, intra-day momentum is still up while above 1.1616. Fallback support is at 1.1600.

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD. Why 4200 is important

Pattern repeats:

• Sharp but short-lived retracements followed by new record highs. Yesterday;s 4189 => 4090 retracxement didn’t even last a day

Unchartered waters:

• When in uncharted record high waters “big figures (round numbers), such as 4000, 4100, 4200 etc increase in importance in the absence of any historic resistance on charts.
• But not all big figures should be treated the same (e.g. 4200 is more significant than 4100 or 4300).
• So pay attention to the new record high above 4200, now the pivotal level – above it targets 4350 with the next pivotal big figures at 4500 while below slows this runaway’s train.
• Intra-day support starts at 5180-5200

[GVI Forex 2]

Forex Market Snapshot

• The dollar is trading softer as mood turns to risk on in sort of a delayed reaction to Fed Chair Powell’s speech yesterday, which solidified expectations of 2 more rate cuts this year.
• AUD and JPY outperforming followed by the EURUSD next in line

[ST London]

What i the one way ticket up in gold saying?

Is it all about US interest rates?

Is it a mistrust and diversification away from the dolkar?

Is it a mistrust of fiat currencies in general?

[ST London]

Stocks up
Usd down
Gold tests 4200

Who needs US data?

[Mtl JP]

“President Donald Trump said he might stop trade in cooking oil with China, injecting fresh tensions into the relationship between the world’s two largest economies.”

How so ? asks grasshopper

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1630 = 3X top atm

[GVI Forex 2]

Markets struggling to find a common theme without USD data as it reacts to the latest headline

• Will another new French government fall? (event risk)
• Ongoing US government shutdown with no end in sight (not a factor yet)
• Uncertainty over next Japan government (so far not a factor)
• Will US-China trade war escalate? (biggest risk to markets)
• Expectations of rate cuts amid a divided Fed (2 more cuts this year being priced in)

[GVI Forex 2]

NZDUSD: Is there a bottom?

• Bounce off 5682 would need to break 5745 to confirm its the low.
• If not, latest leg down stays intact but consolidating unless 5682 is taken out.

NZDUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

No more rate cuts?

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