[GVI Forex 2]

In our blog

Here is a question? Why has the EURUSD recovered and DAX at record levels given the risk of Trump tariffs. prospect of lower interest rates, an underperforming German economy and political uncertainty in Germany (and France)?

Is the Trump Effect Impacting the EURUSD and the DAX?

[Idris Sagamu]

usd /jpy

my view

[Anonymous]

BlackRock CEO Fink Sees ‘Probabilities’ of Fed Hikes in Longer Term: Davos 2025

(youtube) 8K9IMaaU08s

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily

Supports : 1.24750, 1.24450 & 1.24250

Resistances : 1.25050, 1.25500 & 1.25750

Looking it on the monthly chart – still Bearish – needs to take out 1.26000 to have a chance for more Up.

It will all depend on EURGBP cross.

[Belgrade Bobby]

XAUUSD – Gold Daily

Supports : 2770.00 , 2750.00 & 2730.00

Resistances : 2775.00 & 2790.00

Pattern calling for a new high.

Bullish on Daily, Weekly and Monthly – 4h trying for a correction that would lead to around 2740.00

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD Daily

Close tonight above 1.04950 will call for another leg Up – watch for 107.190 & 109.550 later on.

Failure just below 107.190 would result in sharp down move to around 102K .

It is extremely bullish , so selling it is close to suicide.

[Belgrade Bobby]

So let me try to help a bit to our contestants ….I’ll start with

EURUSD Daily

, Supports : 1.04700, 1.04550 & 1.04350

Resistances : 1.05350, 1.06050 & 1.06300

Direction is Up – possible reach for tomorrow – 1.06000

Best bet would be ( in case it starts a bit down from open ) to buy it on dip.

[Alex Lugano]

Yes Bobby , I understand your angle, but you have ( or not 🙂 to be in line with fundamentals ! Cheers mate

[Belgrade Bobby]

Hi Alex 😀 You know my opinion on these fundamental things….I will just watch not to be in the position shortly prior and after the decissions 😀

[Alex Lugano]

Swiss stocks closed higher on Friday as the World Economic Forum in Davos comes to a close and markets shift their attention to next week’s key monetary policy decisions in Europe and the US.

The Swiss Market Index edged up 0.18% at the end of the trading day.

In corporate news, Baader Europe raised its price target on Sandoz  SDZ to 46.6 francs from 44.2 francs, primarily driven by the Swiss pharmaceutical company’s strong growth in biosimilars and initiatives to improve margins. The stock was up 1.26% at closing.

Of course Swiss market index is lagging ( a lot) behind the DAX, but is more stable .

[Alex Lugano]

With both – FOMC and ECB interest rate decision next week and not to forget BOC for those trading USDCAD, it is going to be a very exciting trading week.

I hope that the market will make a decision as well once it all passes and that we can have some clear direction midterm.

With all the Geopolitical shakings right now, Trump expressing some interesting ideas , coupled with European slow down we can expect two possible outcomes :

–          Either the crisis increase to the unbearable levels or

–          All settles down with some new (old) ways , in which case no one will be fully happy, but no one ever is.

We that work the markets have to be extremely sensitive to all of it , to be able to make it .

[Anonymous]

Anyone heard of “Free Range Chicken Meat” and “Free Range Chicken Eggs”. Nowadays people who got land space can build chicken barns large enough to accomodate more chickens and eggs than they can eat and have to give away to friends and neighbors and strangers… A chicken barn about 2000 sq ft can house approx 900-1000 chickens but it is needed only when there is a predatory threat or when the weather is bad (Rain, Snow, Flood, Heat Waves etc) but other than that the chickens are allowed to roam about outside the barn, and perch under the shade of trees, on logs/tree branches laid all over the land for them. What do they feed them?. They eat what lives on the land, such as various plants/insects/earthworms etc. The major diet for them however consists of boiled rice mixed with oats / boiled rice & oats mixed in with overripe fruits and vegetables / a banana tree/lettuce/cabbage is shredded and mixed with oats and boiled rice and about 20% commercial poultry feed. Chickens require feeds high in water content to make their meat juicier when cooked, and need to have enough salt in their food which will make them thirsty to drink ample water and not dehydrate as a result. Free range chickens suffer from no stress, are healthier as well. Their meat is lean with less fat. Their eggs weigh slightly less, egg yields are about 30% less but contain a higher amount of Omega’s…

—————–

Expect record-high egg prices for most of the year

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/25/business/egg-prices-avian-flu-outbreak/index.html

[GVI Forex 2]

Big event week ahead

Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights – 27-31st January 2025

Highlights include FOMC, ECB, BoC, US PCE, EZ GDP, Tokyo and Australian CPI

[Mtl JP]

WSJ – The most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting Jan. 27

Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: Fed, ECB Decisions in Focus
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/week-ahead-for-fx-bonds-fed-ecb-decisions-in-focus-c42d243b?mod=hp_major_pos2

[Mtl JP]

Predictions, promises, words, action, results
Which matters most ?

At donald’s signing establishing working group to make murrica world crypto capital

donald: ” the interest rates will come down”
News chick to donald: “you said that you will demand that interest rates come down.
donald: “well …. I ll put in a strong statement”
news chick: “do you expect the FED to listen to you ?
donald: “yeah”

1/25/2025
10-yr : 4.617
2yr : 4.263

[Anonymous]

Gotta love Trump for banning CBDC. According to me, there ain’t gonna be a bitcoin stockpile, as time evolves they eventually will see the light, as Crypto has no value in real-life transactions but the dollar does…. It is better to make agreements with other countries which fully deregulate trading in the US dollar and which in turn would make it more accessible(online/offline) to the public and that would go even further to strengthen it’s hold as the reserve currency. Many countries via their banking mechanisms do not give citizens the freedom of choice.

Trump Bans CBDC, Forms Task Force To Regulate Cryptocurrency and Create Bitcoin Stockpile.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-bans-cbdc-forms-task-074208266.html?guccounter=1

[Anonymous]

EURUSD:- The price at which to short it is at 1.1036…

 

GL GT

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX Futures FDAX1!

DAX hit a new high today, but seems that some nice correction is in the cards now.

Supports : 21.200 & 20.950

If capable of staying above those, it can continue hitting new highs…

Time wise – it is ready to get in a deeper correction.

[Belgrade Bobby]

XRPUSD Daily

If it closes tonight below 3.16 – it is topping out .

Targets in that case around 2.70

However close above 3.1750 would open a road for another test of high in 3.35-3.40 area

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD Daily

January 23, 2025 at 8:28 pm

Pattern is Clear Bullish – Calls for a new high tomorrow.

Well, two for two …

Next day – more up – but…has to go now over 110K and preferably over 112K or faces another kick down – correctional of course…

 

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP (weaker) order supporting GBPUSD and pushing EURUSD back below 1.05

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily / 4h

Cable broke the long term downtrend line ( from September 2024.)

Now the real hurdle is at 1.26050 – that was the channel support trendline and if it manages to break above it and stay there, new universe opens – leading all the way till 1.38.

But let’s focus for now on coming days…

It has to stay above 1.23350 to be able to form a real bottom.

With the current situation , you have to be aware that chances are 50-50 for tomorrow – it can continue with next leg up, but also it is very possible to retrace back to MA – 1.23850

It just doesn’t pay to play with that kind of probability, unless you entered the position below 1.23850 – then you can risk it – stop on zero and leave it be.

[SF Monedge]

We saw new highs after long standing highs holding in some stock futures.  This is about where the odds increase for a temporary pull back of non-dramatic proportion.  I can see them lingering around current levels prior for a few days but we could just as well see a linear drop.  Overall stocks in the US especially are receiving inflows.  This of course will affect Eur/Usd behavior.

[Mtl JP]

usdcad 1.4330ish — here is tradeable theme for you
Next week FED stays put and BoC cuts a qtr

or is it ?

[GVI Forex 2]

Getting pretty close to the point of no return on a Friday. …meaning either a range or lower USD depwnding on how EURUSD trades vs 1.05.

USDJPY failure to test 156.75 capped its upside as suggested

[GVI Forex 2]

S&P Global Services PMI misseson downside but not as important asa the ISM

Next final U of M consumer sentiment, Existing Home Sales

See our Economic Data Calendar

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Last night’s prediction : The pattern for tonight says : Up – so another leg up ( hope Mr. President doesn’t talk in his sleep…)

So Up it was…Pattern never ( or almost never) lies…

To explain something : when there is a proper angle of move, pattern hits it 96% of the time ( 4% someone talked in his/her sleep)

And how to spot the right angle and decide it is the Signal – well, that’s an art…

Resistance at 1.05350 is waiting.

Now another rule of the game : that broken trendline will act as a support from now on – yet again that 1.03500 is a level to keep in mind.

P.S. Am I gloating here ?? Nooo….not at all 😀

[GVI Forex 2]

With Trump calling for lower interest rates and the Fed meeting next week, this article in our blog is worth reading as it was ahead of the curve.

The question for me is not if but when President Trump and Fed Chair Powell will clash over monetary policy

Is a Clash of the Titans, Trump vs. Powell, Inevitable?

https://global-view.com/is-a-clash-of-the-titans-trump-vs-powell-inevitable/

 

 

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 1 HOUR CHAPT – Key level cited

As I noted earlier, support below 155 caught my eye but the extent of the bounce is a surprise. Key level is 156.75, then a void of key levels until above 158 (not a forecast but an observation).

IN any case, upside will be contained unless 156.75 is firmly taken out.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

The dollar fell to its lowest of the year as the Bank of Japan delivered a long-awaited interest rate rise on Friday, euro business unexpectedly returned to growth and President Donald Trump’s latest comments gave China a lift.

Morning Bid: Dollar swoons as BOJ hikes, euro zone grows, yuan relieved

[Author]

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