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Bitcoin’s weekend rally fueled by record bets in Options markets
Bitcoin set a fresh record on Sunday for the first time since mid-August, as the US government shutdown drove investors to safe-haven assets in a migration dubbed the “debasement trade.”The largest digital asset climbed to $125,689 over the weekend, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It remained in touching distance of its all-time high on Monday morning in New York, changing hands at about $124,000.
Bitcoin’s advance coincided with a US government shutdown that began on Oct. 1 and has helped fuel demand for perceived safe-haven assets. The closure scuppered the planned publication of key economic data, including nonfarm payrolls. Gold surged to a record above $3,900 per ounce on Monday, extending a months-long rally.
Decreased liquidity in crypto markets over the weekend likely contributed to Bitcoin’s price momentum, Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, wrote in a note Monday. “There was a similar pattern in July and August, when a sharp increase followed the update of highs at approximately these levels in sales,” he added.
Investors poured $3.2 billion into a group of 12 US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds last week, the second-highest haul since they launched in 2024. Meanwhile, the notional open interest on BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF rose to a record $49.8 billion on Friday, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
From here, traders expect to see resistance at $135,000, with $150,000 “in sight if momentum holds,” said Rachael Lucas, analyst at BTC Markets. “But with leverage building, any sharp reversal could trigger volatility.”
Options markets are “skewing bullish” with over 60% of open interest in call options, a state of play “that reflects strong conviction but also raises the risk of liquidation cascades if momentum stalls
Euro Slips to Two-Week Low as France’s PM Resigns
The euro fell more than 0.5% on Monday, slipping below $1.167 — its weakest level since September 25 — after France’s newly appointed prime minister, Sébastien Lecornu, reportedly resigned.
The move followed President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to retain a largely unchanged cabinet, which drew swift criticism from opposition parties.
Lecornu, who took office less than a month ago, faced the daunting challenge of steering a budget through a deeply divided parliament.
The upcoming fiscal plan is expected to include unpopular spending cuts and tax hikes aimed at curbing France’s deficit — the largest in the euro area — further fueling political tension and investor concern.
BTCUSD Weekly
I posted this on October 3rd:
Bitcoin took out all the resistances except one – 120.300
If it manages above it, forget all the RSI overbought situation and expectations of a sudden drop – it will just fly…
That was said last night….and flew it did
Next obstacle is at 124.560 and after it 126.700
Watching it at bigger time frames, it is possible that BTC can hit a new high and stop right there and go into correction once again.
But….if it flies above 126.700…well…picture paints somewhere around 160K as a target.
This is Weekly chart – do I have to say anything else??
Japan’s Nikkei seen hitting new highs as yen, bonds sputter on Takaichi victory
Summary
Japan yield curve expected to steepen on Takaichi victory
Tokyo shares likely to rise, yen to fall
Takaichi’s mandate seen influencing BOJ’s rate-hike policyIn the lead-up to the LDP race, a “Takaichi trade” emerged – long on stocks and bearish on Japanese government bonds, particularly longer maturities – positioning for a win by Takaichi, a devotee of the “Abenomics” stimulus policies of the late Shinzo Abe. *Reuters)]
Sanae Takaichi set to become Japan’s first female prime minister
Takaichi is running on a conservative platform, emphasising fiscal expansion, stronger security policy, and higher defence spending. Her proposals are seen as equity-positive, especially for defence, nuclear and technology sectors, but negative for the Yen and JGBs, given the implications for issuance and continued accommodative bias.
NEWSQUAWK PREVIEW: Japanese LDP Leadership Election, 4th October 2025
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