[GVI Forex 2]

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Jobless Claims Spike: What It Means for the Fed and Markets

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Opening News

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[GVI Forex 2]

I think it means debt, deficit, independent Fed concerns = selling dollars and long bonds (or via steeper yield curve(

[Mtl JP]

who can explain what “Treat dollar and long bonds as the first shock absorbers” means, tactical trade-wise ?

tia

[GVI News]

Sept 16 (Reuters) – The Treasury yield curve could steepen as investors demand higher compensation for perceived fiscal and political risk amid rising pressure from the Trump administration on the U.S. Federal Reserve, bond fund managers said on Tuesday.

If politics bends policy, I’d fade rallies in the dollar and stay nimble on duration,” Gareth Nicholson, chief investment officer at Nomura International Wealth Management, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum. “Treat dollar and long bonds as the first shock absorbers…. trumcatec

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Stock Market Wrap

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Newsquawk US FX Wrap

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[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ)

New record high set at 24393 record high and then consolidating ahead of the Fed

Needs to hold 24063 (use 24000) to keep the bid and momentum going..

US500 4 HOUR CHART

 

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500)

Consolidating below its 6636 record high ahead of the Fed after holding off a test of its 4 hour trendline.

2 support levels to watch:

6600 = pivotal big figure

6572 = key levels, needs to hold to keep latest leg up intact.

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

In the world of tariffs, retail sales data does not tell you whether sales were brisk (or not) or the result of a higher selling price.

The headline Retail Sales number reflects the total dollar amount of sales during the period.

It does not separate out price changes vs. actual volume of goods sold.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Markets pricing in most extreme Fed… 25bps (some hoping for 50 bps), dovish statement and dovish Powell.

Will there be any dissents in favotr of 50bps?

[Mtl JP]

ST or how about this excited scream by David Uberti and Ben Eisen in WSJ yesty:

“Gold Hasn’t Rallied This Much Since 1979
A 40% price jump this year outpaces Covid-19 pandemic, 2007-09 recession

i-eeeehAaa !

[ST London]

This ferls like real money selling of dollars or better yet buying chf and euro.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCHF still leading (below .7872 =- 14 year low) and EURUSD above
1.1850 targets 1.1900 if it stays above it.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY

JPY joining in the dollar sell-a-0thon and as you can see by this chart, 145.75 is the bottom of a 2+ month range with a big void below it.

USDJPY DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500)

If you believe in trendlines US500 is testing one now.

Psychologically, 6600 needs to hold to maintain the bid although only back below 6572 would indicate the high is in for now.

US500 4 HOUR CHART

[Mtl JP]

hahaha … inflation … selective focuss on things that are not essential AND that exhibit price elasticity.

Not like price beef – an essential protein – that rose by over 8% since the beginning of 2025, hitting $9.26 per pound in July BUT … its per pound consumption remains steady.

yeah … inflation

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD

EURUSD was on 3 (run stops) missions today

1)Above 1.1790 (done)

2)Above major 1.1829 (done)

3) Above 1.1]850 (done)

4) Establish aboive 1.1950 for as run at 1.1900 (open)

The marginal break above 1.1850 and quick retreat leaves it dependent on 1.1829 holding as support to keep a strong bid.

Note the GBPUSD lag as the EURUSD move up was partly fueled by EURGBP buying.

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD)

Was the test of 3700 (new record at 3703) mission accomplished?

Quick retreat suggests it may be for now and dependent on 3674 (also former record high) needs to hold to contai9n the retreat.

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

What’s Hot and What’s Not?

What’s hot?

All currencies but the dollar led by USDCHF (close to a 14 year low and EURUSD (4 year high)

US bonds (yields down)

GOLD extending record high briefly above 3700 (but then backing off)

Crude oil up

 What’s not?

The dollar is down led by CHF, EUR, JPY, GBP while CAD, NZD, AUD (flat) lag

What’s hot/not?

US stocks down marginally

Bitcoin down marginally

 

 

 

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCHF

The outperformer today with EURUSD in 2nd place.

Last support level on my chart at 7872 before a black hole to levels not SEEN IN 14 YEARS.

USDCHF DAILY CHART

[GVI News]

Who said there is no inflation?

Subscription Price Increase (+30% price hike)

Apple TV+ (1 month)
New $12.99 — Old $9.99
Starting October 13, 2025

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Stock Specifics

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Newsquawk US Equity Open

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[GVI Forex 2]

Got the EURUSD stops above 1.1829… clue was in bonds… 4 year high territory… 1.1850 pivotal, 1.1900 next chart level.

[GVI Forex 2]

U.S. 10 Year Treasury 4.03% last

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD in its role as the anti-dollar is the outperformer today

For the bull side, 1.1829 is an inviting target

Break it and run stops or it is back to 1.18

[GVI Forex 2]

Keep an eye on US bond yields (dipped => USD dipped)

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD seems to be getting a lift from Trump

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[GVI Forex 2]

IP beats but prior month revised down

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