[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD falling below 3100 (outside day) … this could be a victim of selling winners to offset losses elsewhere or to build up cash to cover margins.

I call this collateral damage.

[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

Risk sentiment hit after Trump’s tariff announcement, DXY below 102 whilst EUR/USD climbs above 1.11

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 7 things you need to know for today’s market.

7 Things You Need to Know

US President Trump unveiled individual reciprocal tariffs for each country which are essentially half of what countries were charging the US.

The US is to apply a 20% tariff on imports from EU, 34% tariff on imports from China, 26% tariff on imports from India and 25% tariff on imports from South Korea.

Trump also stated that the baseline tariff is 10% for all nations and announced 25% auto tariffs, while Canada and Mexico were not subject to reciprocal tariffs for now.

Indices take a tumble after US tariffs slap sentiment; ES -3.5%

DXY briefly dipped below 102.00 whilst EUR/USD sits above 1.10; havens bid.

Yields wilt after Trump’s Rose Garden speech, desks diverge on Fed implications.

Industrial commodities sink amid growth woes and after with focus on a 54% cumulative levy on China.

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[GVI Forex 2]

Keeping it simple. US500 5500 has potential to be a risk onrisk off indicator.

Looking at the dollar melting down, this is either capital flight or repoatriations or a combination of the two.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.11
sofar 1.1147 high

[Mtl JP]

roaring from EU
“EU preparing ‘further countermeasures’ to US tariffs: Von der Leyen”

[Mtl JP]

GVI 8:31 is it “a financial market crisis” or political screamings ?
–
at least here in canada current PM Carney and his crew were so shocked by President Trump’s “gentle-ness” that Carney took time out to consult with his advisors on how to reaction-come out, ultimately stammering that “President Trump has just announced a series of measures that are going to fundamentally change the international trading system,” and that “We are in a situation where there is going to be an impact on the U.S. economy which will build in time and in my judgment will be negative on the U.S. economy. That will have an impact on us.” and that “We are going to protect our workers and we are going to build the strongest economy in the G7,” and that Canada will fight with “purpose and force”.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – New record high but then…

New record high at 3167 abd then backing off.. this level now becoimnes key resistance.

Keeps a bid as long as it can hold above 3100-05

 

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY WEEKLY – Leading the way

JOY leading the way asw a safe haven aand now dependent on 146.50 holding or risk is for 145.00.

On the upside, 148.00-15 would need to be renewed to ease the risk.

No choice but to keep an eye on US stocks as USDJPY will stay tied to the risk mood..

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD WEEKLY –  FIRsT MISSION ACCIMPLISHED

As I noted yesterday, EURUSD 9-day pattern around 1.08 was itching for a breakout. The break of it to the upside is bullish.

If there was a mission for the bulls it was to run stops above 1.10.

With the firSt mission accomplished, it is now dependent on 1.10 (clearly the bias setter) becoming support to create an uber bid that exposes 1.1215 and 1.1275 (major)…. in the absence of nearby reisitance use 1.0150 to be pivotal of trade is between 1.10-1.11.

Otherwise, look for a bid below the market as long as it trades above 1.0950/35/20

To state the obvious, these are not normal markets so watch headlines and if risk adverse, trade close to the vest

You can open any chart by right clicking on your mouse to open it in a new tab.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

For those of you who have not traded during a financial market crisis, it is often characterized by repatriation of funds back home.

Those with current account surpluses often see the larger flows,

The current crisis is not a typical one as it has been man made and as such, can be impacted by a headline from Trump.

In any case, the dollar is not getting the typical safe haven flows as markets adjust to reciprocal tariffs that exceeded even the worst case basxis.

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP ahowa

Markets reacting to reciprocal tariffs that exceeded the worst case basis

Dollar down sharply… led by JPY and EUR (1.10 looms).

Stoking retaliation and trade war fears

Stocks down

Gold backed off after setting another record high

US yields fall to lowest levela since Oct

Normally this would be setting off alarms at the White House but this is not a typical administration driving the bus

Will post charts once dust settles

[Mtl JP]

cnbc’s Apr 2 20257:46 PM headline screams
“Dow futures tumble 1,000 points on fear Trump’s tariffs will spark trade war”

[Mtl JP]

so japan and ozzi stocks, at least at their “open”
open down.

lets call it liberation of some players off their “wealth” holdings

[GVI Forex 2]

This is not the end of the reciprocal tariffs story

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[Mtl JP]

From the “interpreters” at WSJ of President Trump annouced today

“Trump Unveils Sweeping Tariffs in Stark Shift in U.S. Trade Policy

Trading partners considered ‘bad actors’ hit with higher levies; others face a 10% rate”

Here’s what to know:

There’s a 10% baseline tariff. These are across-the-board levies on all imports, effective April 5.

Other nations will be hit with what Trump called a “discounted reciprocal tariff.” The higher rates are for nations the White House considers bad actors on trade. Duties will be 34% on China, 24% on Japan and 20% on the E.U., in lieu of the universal 10% tariff, effective April 9.

Auto tariffs will take effect tonight. Trump said he’s imposing 25% tariffs on all foreign-made autos as of midnight. …/..

[GVI Forex 2]

Leaving a window oipen to negotiate?

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[GVI Forex 2]

CDA, Mex spared (for now), 10% minimum tariff, higher elsewhere

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[GVI Forex 2]

I hope those trading paid attention to my strategy article for Lineration Day.

ADDENDUM

Reports confirm President Trump will make the reciprocal tariff announcement in the Rose Garden at 4PM Wed

This will come at the thinnest time for the USD session and after cash stock markets close.

This suggests a choppy, likely volatile reaction that will carry over into the Far East.

Hears the point… while a better reading will be once the dust settles and the market trades with better liquidity on Thursday, the initial reaction will likely be exaggerated with potentially whipsaw moves given the time of day in thin liquidity.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Here is another list of the taariff by country and %

[GVI Forex 2]

No country has been spared.  Here is a list.

[GVI Forex 2]

I warned of whipsaws and the risak on reversed once Trump revealed details.

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[Belgrade Bobby]

Trump confirms 25% tariffs on auto imports will start at midnight
Trump confirmed that his administration will impose 25% tariffs on auto imports starting Thursday at midnight.

Trump, in his Rose Garden speech, lamented, “None of our companies are allowed to go into other countries.”

“That’s why, effective at midnight, we will impose a 25% tariff on all foreign made automobiles,” he said.

[GVI Forex 2]

All 4 indices up heading into the close… suggests somw ope the tariff announcement will bring clarity and some relief

In any case keep an eye on stocks as that will tell you the reaction to the tariffs although as I have been saying, it is the thinnest liquidity time of the NY day.

…

[GVI Forex 2]

30 minutes to Zero Hour

[GVI Forex 2]

While we wait…

What is the trading strategy for “Liberation” (aka Reciprocal Tariff) Day?

 

[Alex Lugano]

Whole Trump’s “Tariffs Plan” is based on belief that reducing import through higher prices will bring more jobs to USA by opening of new factories / services as well as increasing production of existing ones.

But one of the issues is also The Deficit – and how to turn the tide of it.

Check out the table below and things might come to perspective.

[Alex Lugano]

Wall Street steadies ahead of Trump’s tariff plans

 

Indexes up: Dow 0.2%, S&P 500 0.2%, Nasdaq 0.4%

Trump’s tariff announcement at 4:00 p.m. ET

ADP, factory orders beat estimates

Tesla turns higher after reports Musk to leave govt role

 

U.S. stock indexes recovered from morning losses to trade modestly higher on Wednesday as investors awaited U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff announcements.

The president has said that his reciprocal tariffs aim to equalize the comparatively lower U.S. tariff rates with those imposed by other nations. But the format of the duties was unclear, with reports that Trump was considering a 20% universal tariff.

“You’re seeing a market that is beginning to slowly rally. That is a read that the news may be more positive than expected,” said Eric Schiffer, chief executive officer of the Patriarch Organization.

“We’ll have continued volatility in the medium term. It will be about how trade partners decide to counter and what the impact of all this is on supply chains and profits.”

[GVI Forex 2]

All stocks have done so far are to recoup early losses but giving a feeling of risk on mood.

Amazon said to be making a bid to buy Tick Tock

[GVI Forex 2]

FX focus still on EURUSD… if 1.0861 becomes support, there is a void to 1.0918

[GVI Forex 2]

Perhaps an inevitable break of the bromance is helping a risk on mood (note USDJPY at 150… JPY weak on crosses …  EURJPY up)

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[Author]

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