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US500 4 HOUR = 5600-5800?
As I have been saying all week, US500 would need to regain 5800-10 to build momentum… in this regard it has failed, leaving a void after 5752 was broken..’
On the downside, there is a double bottom at 5597 and only through there would shift the risk back to the low.
If 5600-5800 becomes the range, then te 5700 midpoint will set its tone.
EURUSD 4h
Situation is not clear, yet but indications are here…
We have two important levels to watch now:
1.07600/700 above the head
1.07200 below
Return above 1.07700 would be indicative of renewed Up trend
Break below 1.07200 would open a road to 1.05000
Daily ranges are pathetic, and obviously only force are stop losses.
XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – More consolidation
Continues to consolidate between 2999 – 3038,
Range is too tight to last for long… …going strictly by charts, there is a retracement risk as long as it trades below 3038 but
…my hesitation is how betting on retracements following through in XAUUSD has been a losing bet and … why the 3000 area is so important.
KIt’s the reaction to news that matters
EURUSD reacted to this
and ignored this
Bobby, if you look at a daily chart, it was almost straight up from 1.0360 to 1.0954, with just one retracement to 1.0821.
The move through 1.0821 broke the upward momentum and left the focus on 1.08 to set its tone.
The breakout level for the run to 1.0954 was 1.0630 so this is the key level for me.
Using FIBOS for 1.0360-1.0954 using our Fibonacci Calculator
EURUSD 4h
Watch the close of this 4h bar!
If it manages to close above 1.07900, there will be a fair chance for the attack at 1.08250
I have to point something – this correction started 7 days ago, and it is kind of lame – so we might be seeing a change of a current intraday trend.
But as long as 1.08250 holds, more tests of supports are on cards.
USDJPY Daily
Yen has to first take out that 151 – it is EMA 50 acting as a barrier.
Supports: 150.050, 149.300 & 149.050
Resistances: obviously 151.000, 151.250 & 152.450
Pattern wise – it looks good for tomorrows break above 151, as long as the day closes above 150.100
With so much fundamentals in front of us, it is not wise to try to predict so much in advance.
US Dollar Index
US Dollar index hasn’t been doing much lately. We just got the strong downward push triggered by the German defence spending news which saw EU-US yield differentials jumping in favour of the Euro. As a reminder, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is basically EUR/USD upside down as the Euro makes up for 60% of the index.
This is harder to square but the greenback will most likely be influenced by the risk sentiment following the catalyst as positive news should keep rate cuts expectations around two for this year, while negative news could push those to four or more.
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