[GVI Forex 2]

S&P PMI beat (big jump in mfg)

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[GVI Forex 2]

Next up: S&P Global flash PMI (not as important as ISM but market often reacts)

See our Economic Data Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

Crypto news

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[GVI Forex 2]

With EURUSD (GBPUSD, GOLD as well) unable to shake a focus from the “50” level (1.1650), it seems like a good time to revisit this article

My Favorite Trading Secret: The Power of the “50” Level

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 98.343 at 8:24 AM EDT
–
currently lousy volatility ahead of tom’s jerome’s yak (at 10am)

odds are jerome will maintain perception of him as being prudent if not cautious in fear of inflation yet mumble about potential of loweing rates if the labour numbers front continues to tumble.

The trump crowd that is looking for aggressive cuts will not be happy but expectations for some sept cut maintain. In the really really short term the DLR might pop uP some if powell vascillates as I expect.

In the little longer term time frame odds for a hard DLR rally are small for an aggregate of a bunch of reasons, me thinks.

–

Euro 1.1652 frolicking just around its 50dma
I am biased: uP
Sup 1.16: R 1.17/1.1720

[GVI Forex 2]

Weekly claims miss (higher), Philly Fed miss lower, employment falls, prices rise

 

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[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX Index

Dax under pressure – Double Top in place

Resistances: 24.305, 24.370 & 24.535

Supports: 24.140, 23.920 & 23.775

Intraday pressure: Down

[Belgrade Bobby]

Palantir Technologies Inc. – PLTR

Pre Market situation – we will follow it closely during the day

Palantir Technologies was rising 1.1% after shares of the artificial-intelligence data company closed lower Wednesday for a sixth-straight session. The stock has declined almost 17% over the span, which equals its longest losing streak since April 2024, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Palantir has been swept up in a selloff of expensive technology stocks, particularly those tied to AI.

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 year yield ahead of data

[Belgrade Bobby]

Highest Volume US Stocks

[Belgrade Bobby]

US Stocks Pre Market Gainers

[GVI Forex 2]

Walmart: Note the tariff relaated comments

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[Belgrade Bobby]

ETHUSD – Ethereum

Ether looks healthier in contrast to BTC – there are no double tops above the head, and this Down wave after reaching a new high is kind of shallow.

4380.00 is a breaking point on the upper side and if ETH manages above it today, situation will change dramatically.

Resistances: 4380.00, 4535.00 & 4580.00

Supports: 4255.00, 4155.00  & 4060.00

Intraday pressure: Down

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin

Bitcoin price continuing to fall, targeting 110.820

Resistances: 114.810, 115.700 & 117.200

Supports: 112.335, 111.880 & 110.820

Intraday pressure – Down

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Several reasons might be responsible for EUR lame behaviour, like “Back to School” strategic operation, Lack of new Heavenly Words coming from Trump, some Decisive Action coming from FEDs, maybe few bombs here and there…

Whatever the reason, this is what we have right now:

Resistances: 1.16650, 1.16800 & 1.17300

Supports: 1.16250, 1.16100 & 1.15900

Intraday :

–          If above 1.16550 – Up

–          If below 1.16450 Down

[GVI Forex 2]

Note the comment about the jobs market replacement rate

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[GVI Forex 2]

Fed hawk

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[GVI Forex 2]

Next up: US data: Weekly Jobless Climsm Philly Fed, S&P flash PMI

See our Economic Data Calendar

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY

USDJPY outperforming (JPY underperforming) but faces resistance at 147.90-148.10-148.16 ahead of the key 148.51 level.

Hint:  When you see USDJPY diverge from others, there is usually  cross flow involved so look for offsets elsewhere.

Supports: 147.48, 147.34, 147.00

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY

USDJPY outperforming (JPY underperforming) but faces resistance at 147.90-148.10-148.16 ahead of the key 148.51 level.

Hint:  When you see USDJPY diverge from others, there is usually  cross flow involved so look for offsets elsewhere.

Supports: 147.48, 147.34, 147.00

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART

[ST London]

U.S. tech stocks seem to have found a level following two days of sharp pullbacks, but the Treasury market was unnerved by the latest Federal Reserve drama just as everyone awaits the central bank’s annual Wyoming jamboree.

U.S. stock futures ended in the red again on Wednesday, driven by a whole host of AI and tech sector jitters ahead of Nvidia’s big earnings release next week. But stock futures seemed to find a foothold ahead of today’s bell, with attention turning back to the Fed following President Trump’s demand for the resignation of another Fed board member – Lisa Cook – over allegations of mortgage fraud that she insists she will contest.

If Cook were forced out, Trump would then likely secure a majority of his appointees on the seven-person Fed board by next summer. If Chair Jerome Powell, who gives his keynote Jackson Hole speech on Friday, steps down as a board member when his chairmanship ends in May, then a majority of deep rate cut advocates could well emerge on the Fed’s policymaking committee with the support of just one regional Fed boss…From Reuters Tech Fright Calms But Fed Pressure Grows

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD

Breaking both sides of a tight 1.3447-71 range with a lift coming from a better flash PMI.

Some caution though after yesterday’s whipsaw after an initial spike higher on hotter CPI did not follow through.

To keep it simple, 1.3450 sets the intra-day bias while within 1.34-1.35, above 1.3500-10 needed to turn it bid.

Note GBPUSD getting some support from its crosses, most notably a firmer GBPJPY as the JPY underperforms today. EURGBP is lower as well.

GBPUSD 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News

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[GVI Forex 2]

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD)

3350 once again confirmed as the pivotal level while within 3300-3400 with a brief test not following through

This leaves XAUUSD struggling for momentum with moves outside 3300-11/3350-60 needed to break the logjam.

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows,,,

.. the dollar trading mixed in a calm before the Powell at Jackson Hole day tomorrow.

GBPUSD and EURUSD getting some support from flash PMIs, the latter finding support aat 1.1620-25.

On order of strength vs the USD

1. GBP

2. NZD

3. EUR

4. CAD

5. CHF

6. AUD

7. JPY

[GVI Forex 2]

Posted in our blog

Trump’s Pressure on the Fed: A Threat to Independence?

[GVI Forex 2]

Fed;s Cook stands her ground

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[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Opening News

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[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Market Wrap

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