[Belgrade Bobby]

Yes Jay, I see it – for me it is just an intermediary level that might serve its purpose…

If 1.08300 slows EUR down today, but it closes tonight above 1.08150/200 we can have a decent run and attack at 1.08600 Monday.

However, if EUR goes straight away for it ( 1.08600) it can easily collapse on Monday…

That is my way of seeing it…

[GVI Forex 2]

Looks lie 1.0830 is too tough again.

[GVI Forex 2]

Bobby, high was 1,0831… keeps 1.0830ish as the key resistance blocking your 1.0860

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD

And here we go – 1.08600 next resistance to watch.

If EUR manages to stay above 1.08150/200 till tonight’s close, this should be a start of a new Uptrend.

In case 1.08600 proves difficult to overcome on the first attempt, we might see another test of 1.07300

These are all possibilities and before we see how this day ends it is all just a speculation.

[GVI Forex 2]

Correlation:

As noted earlier, USDJPY was correlating with the risk on/off mood… now back to 150 as stocks sink, also weighed down by lower US bond yields as well.

[GVI Forex 2]

Divergence

US500 (down) and EURUSD (up) charts (15 min) look like a mirror (DAX also down) which doesn;t make sense if you believe tariff fallout may be contained.

With that said, EURUSD currently testing 1.0830, no stops on first test,

[Mtl JP]

GVI 2:09 I think that with such energetic price action as sofar 15 min candle maybe too big a hammer
IF one is into scalping style trade
risk is missing out trading exhaust / turn opp
just fwiw

[Topnine]

GOLD (XAU/USD) is currently at price 3086.87 at exactly 3pm here in Nigeria. From my speculation and Analysis Gold is soaring for a higher reach. I see it getting to price range 3096, at least . I have said it before and we all know that Gold is a Bulllish Metal so there is more bias of Gold buying than selling.

If Gold eventually sells (go bearish) it is usually Temporary before it resumes it former bullish position. Gold got to its highest point today at price 3086, and its lowest point was 3053.51

Let us keep an eye on this Metal as it moves swiftly in the market. Let’s all be guided by using a 1-5% Capital risk and a 1:2/3 risk/ reward ratio.
A word is enough for the wise.

Thanks,
TOPNINE.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUsd 15 MINUTE – ONE WAY STREET

As the chart shows it has been one way since tHe no reaction to the PCE report…s0 far 1.0820 is hilding on top, more significant level is 1.0830

[GVI Forex 2]

U of M final consumer sentiment revided down, inflation expectations revised up… see our Economic Data Calendar

Long-term inflation expectations are at a 32 year high

[Mtl JP]

what if bloomberg is willing (or not) purveyor of some hoax or rousse

[GVI Forex 2]

We will see whether the EU definition of concessions matches Trump’s view of it but for now it has eased some of the risk… Key levels 1.0820-30 so far untouched

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD pops briefly above 1.08 on this headline… conspiracy theory says someone had the inside scoop on this given the way EURUSD traded bid ahead of it

 

Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 1H Chart

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD – Let’s see now how 1.07800/850 holds

[GVI Forex 2]

Higher core PCE… no reaction

[Belgrade Bobby]

And Explanation about Retest – Daily Chart and typical example

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

1.08200 proved to be a strong Resistance yesterday.

Hence: Close tonight below 1.08000 ( preferably below 1.08900) would be Bearish for tomorrow.

EURUSD Opened just below 1.08000

And that was a typical “Retest” and not re test – English and literature 101 has no place in Trading.

Resistances: 1.07800, 1.08000 & 1.08200

Supports: 1.07600, 1.07450 & 1.07300

4H chart

 

[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

US futures approach PCE in the red following the overnight tone and further risk aversion from earthquakes in Myanmar; Carney to speak with Trump today

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 6 things you need to know for today’s market.

6 Things You Need to Know

European bourses and US futures approach PCE in the red following the overnight tone and further risk aversion from earthquakes in Myanmar

Canadian PM to speak with Trump today; EU has mentioned Apple, Meta and PayPal as part of any potential tariff response

DXY attempts to claw back Thursday’s pressure and is firmer vs peers ex-JPY, which is the best performer after Tokyo CPI

A firmer start for fixed benchmark ahead of US PCE and any tariff/trade developments, no move to the morning’s prelim. HICP figures

Crude choppy, precious metals underpinned by the tone while base metals are lower

Geopolitics in focus amid updates on Panama, Ukraine minerals deal and further damage to the Sudzha station

Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[Mtl JP]

104.14 my version of DLRx
making 2x top atm

[GVI Forex 2]

HEATMaP is only a snapshot in time… dollar u=is uop now vs all but USDJPY, which is ell off its low.

There may be a reaction to PCE but tariffs will make it a new ball game for those looking ahead.

[Mtl JP]

heatmap “the dollar trading firmer except”

is rather historically aligned with end-of-month theatrics by money managers
usually favoring the dollar

[Mtl JP]

thks to cnbc bi-line

“February’s personal consumption expenditures price index is due at 8:30 a.m. ET and could confirm whether investors should be concerned about sticky inflation, especially after the Federal Reserve recently raised its inflation forecast. Economists polled by Dow Jones see the headline PCE price index reading rising 0.3% in February and 2.5% from 12 months earlier.”

10-yr 4.33 dowm a tad

[GVI Forex 2]

Correlation

USDJPY seems to be correlating with the riwk on/off mood

US stocks bounced off the lows, USDJPY did the same.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD DAILY CHART –    What’s the next target?

New record high… next target is only a guess (3100)

Now needs to hold above 3050-57 to keep a strong bid,,, only back below 3048 would negate the risk.

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

.. the dollar trading firmer except vs. the JPY, a reversal of what wax seen at this time yesterday as mood turns to risk off  (and an unchanged GBPISD… weaker EURGBP)

What caught me eye:

USDJPY came within 10 pips of 151.30 and then went into retreat

EURUSD printed 1.08 (6th day in a row) but no higher

XAUUSD at a new record high

Tame EZ flash CPI

UK retaik salea beat

Looking ahead

Key data focus will be on US PCE

Monday is month/quarter end

Wednesday is reciprocal tariff day

Spring forward for clocks this weekend

 

[Mtl JP]

Carney says Canada cannot rely on U.S. any longer and must achieve ‘economic autonomy’

such as thusly:
““Over the coming weeks, months, and years, we must fundamentally reimagine our economy,” Mr. Carney said. “We will need to ensure Canada can succeed in a drastically different world. The old relationship we had with the U.S. based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military co-operation is over.”

carney’s assertions

[Mtl JP]

usdcad 1.4313
marc carney, sofar current canadian PM explaining and predicting things about president Trump’s tariffs:

Canada election: Carney says ‘nothing is off the table’ to fight Trump’s tariffs

we will … blablabla … roar

[GVI Forex 2]

Just posted in our blog

Will currency rebalancing impact month and quarter end trading

[Mtl JP]

retest is actually two words: “re” and “test”
think about the implications for the energy dynamics of the trading crowd

[Author]

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