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XTIUSD MONTHLY CHART – 4 Year Lows
I had to go to a monthly chart to find crude oil levels following the break of $61.66 to a 4 year low… while the next level on charts is not until n33.30, set during the Covid crisis, it would take another black swan event to send it there.
With that said, I am not suggesting to buy a falling knife so watch $50-55 to see if this area can forms support.
Watch these Bitcoin price levels as BTC meets ‘decision point’
Key takeaways:
· Bitcoin failed to break the $98,000 resistance amid increased profit-taking.
· BTC price needs to close above $95,000 on the daily chart for a push to $100,000.
Bitcoin’s BTCUSD price failed to break above resistance at $98,000 on May 3. Since April 22, BTC prices have formed daily candle highs between $93,000 and $97,900, but they could not close above $97,440.
Realized profits above “statistical levels”
Senior researcher at Glassnode, CryptoVizArt.₿, said that Bitcoin’s rally to the $93,000-96,000 range has “pushed the profit-taking volume above the statistical levels.”
In other words, the Realized Profit/Loss ratio shows that the volume of Bitcoin being sold at a profit exceeds historical norms. This suggests heightened selling activity by investors locking in gains, often signaling potential market tops and increased sell-side pressure.
The chart below indicates that “for every dollar realized in loss, more than 9 dollars was realized in profit!”
EURUSD Predictions
Danske Bank forecasts the euro to rise to $1.22 in 12 months’ time from $1.1340 currently, as the U.S. Federal Reserve resumes interest-rate cuts, denting the dollar. Danske forecasts 125 basis points of U.S. rate cuts by June 2026 as President Trump’s tariff policies sting the economy, beginning next month. “By June and July, the Fed will likely have much more clarity on both the final level of China tariffs as well as the future of the other ‘reciprocal’ tariffs,” the bank’s analysts say in a note. The Fed is expected to leave rates on hold on Wednesday but is unlikely to precommit to rate cuts at this stage, Danske says.
US OPEN
Crude sinks after OPEC+ hikes supply, US equity futures & USD lower into ISM Services
Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 7 things you need to know for today’s market.
7 Things You Need to Know
US President Trump said he is willing to lower tariffs on China at some point. He answered no when asked if he plans to speak with Chinese President Xi this week.
US President Trump reiterated that the Fed should lower interest rates and said he won’t remove Fed Chair Powell.
European bourses are mixed but with price action fairly rangebound; FTSE 100 closed, with the UK on holiday; US futures entirely in the green.
USD kicks the week off on the backfoot, EUR/USD returns to a 1.13 handle, APAC currencies in focus.
USTs rangebound with price action subdued amidst a number of holidays.
Crude slips on OPEC+; precious and base metals catch and hold a bid.
OPEC+ members agreed to raise oil output by 411k bpd in June, a source report noted the group will likely approve another accelerated hike of 411k bpd for July.
THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)
The global economic outlook for the week of May 5, 2025, is marked by rising concerns over the impact of escalating trade tariffs, with ripple effects seen across Europe, Asia, and the United States. In Europe, modest first-quarter GDP growth in Germany, France, and Italy offered a glimmer of hope, but container traffic data and PMI figures indicate deeper underlying weakness, particularly in manufacturing. Shipping volume indices fell notably in March, signaling reduced trade activity—potentially due to U.S. tariff policy disruptions. Meanwhile, rising inventories across European firms suggest preemptive stockpiling ahead of further tariff hikes or a general economic slowdown.
In the U.S., the Federal Reserve’s upcoming FOMC meeting is the central focus, with policymakers expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25–4.50% as they assess mixed economic signals. While some data show promising job market activity, widespread layoff intentions and surging inflation expectations have created a complex decision-making environment. The Fed’s challenge lies in distinguishing short-term volatility from structural inflation pressures caused by tariffs and global supply shifts. In Asia, PMI surveys and upcoming trade data from China, Taiwan, and South Korea are expected to reflect the deepening toll of trade frictions, even as inflation remains somewhat contained. Overall, the week’s economic indicators will be closely scrutinized for early signs of how entrenched and widespread the effects of the trade war have become.(Econoday)
OPEC+ to further speed up oil output hikes, sources say
Key points:
· OPEC+ may unwind 2.2 mln bpd voluntary cut by Nov – sources
· Speedy hikes likely in July, Aug, Sept, Oct – sources
· Saudi Arabia warns against non-compliance – source
· Oil fell to 4-year low in April below $60/b
· Trump to visit Saudi Arabia in May
OPEC+ will accelerate oil output hikes and could bring back to the market as much as 2.2 million barrels per day by November, five OPEC+ sources said as the group’s leader Saudi Arabia seeks to punish some fellow members for producing above quotas.
The developments take place days before U.S. President Donald Trump is due to visit Saudi Arabia to discuss an arms package and a nuclear agreement. Trump has repeatedly asked OPEC+ to pump more oil to help ease gasoline prices as he faces inflation pressures at home, including from his tariff wars.
Oil prices fell to a four-year low in April below $60 per barrel on accelerated OPEC+ hikes and as Trump’s tariffs raised concerns about a global slowdown.
News of accelerating hikes will weigh on oil prices until compliance improves, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.
EURUSD Daily
Preparing for tomorrow – Gap or no Gap ?
Resistances: 1.13100, 1.13300 1.13500
Supports: 1.12750, 1.12650 & 1.12400
Now this is a Bearish pattern, but usually next bar can try Upwards and violently.
As long as it stays below 1.14250, we are going to go Down in coming days.
If 1.12400 lost, we should have a correction all the way till 1.09500
Weekend Coin Overview
Today in crypto, a group of pro-crypto US Senate Democrats have said they would oppose a stablecoin bill in its current form
As of now, BTC struggles below $96,000 after a minor daily correction. Its market cap has dropped to $1.9 trillion on CG, while its dominance over the alts is up to 61.7%.TRUMP Keeps Dumping
Most alts are slightly in the red today. XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, TRX, and LINK have lost traction with price declines of up to 3%.
SUI and AVAX lead the adverse trend, with price drops of 5.6% and 4.2%, respectively. Consequently, SUI is down to $3.22, while AVAX struggles to remain above $20.
TRUMP has plunged once again in the past 24 hours, losing roughly 14% of value. There’s a lot of controversy around the project, especially after the dinner invitation, which you can check here.
The total crypto market cap has shed around $25 billion since yesterday and is down to $3.075 trillion on CG.
BTC Hourly
XRPUSD – Daily
For all those that find Bitcoin as too far away from their reality and are not prone to trade on leverage, here comes something affordable – XRP
XRP has two important Support levels :
1.83500 & 1.64550
Two resistances are now preventing XRP to move higher:
2.22750 & 2.36250
If successful in overcoming these two, road is open for levels around 3.00
An Interesting Insight into Crypto World
Bitcoin mining — Institutions boost investments amid favorable US climate
The Bitcoin mining industry has never been more attractive to institutional investors. Fintech giants are investing in Bitcoin mining rather than just accumulating the asset, all thanks to the favorable regulatory environment in the US and the profitability margin of BTC.
Is Bitcoin mining profitable?
Bitcoin mining is still profitable. CoinShares, a digital asset investment firm, shared that the average cost to mine 1 BTC for US-listed miners reached $55,950 in Q3 2024. Two other popular models — one from MacroMicro and another dubbed the Glassnode Difficulty Regression Model — give different estimates.
On the very same day of Feb. 20, MacroMicro data shows that the average cost to produce 1 BTC hovers above $92,000; Glassnode’s Difficulty Regression Model estimates the cost to mine a single BTC at approximately $34,400, all while the cryptocurrency’s price hit $98,300 on that day.
On a global scale, mining costs differ based on the region. For example, the electricity cost to produce 1 BTC in Ireland is roughly $321,000, but it costs just over $1,300 to mine 1 BTC in Iran. Electricity is only part of the equation — hardware, labor and maintenance costs also play a crucial role.
So it seems that “Production” costs for Bitcoin are still profitable on Global level, but for most developed countries it is already out of reach.
As long as there will be regions where Bitcoin can be profitably produced ( mined ) , it is business as usual, but as costs are growing all over the world, we might come to the point where mining of Bitcoin won’t be acceptable.
And what then – well, then Bitcoin will really Spike Up to levels that are not present even in our wildest dreams…
Apple – AAPL
Apple CEO Tim Cook said tariffs would add about $900 million to the company’s costs for the June quarter. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said the company had yet to see significant impact from the levies.
So after all the Tariffs commotions, Apple managed to return sharply to previous Long term trend and within the channel that served us well for last 5 years.
Now it has to stay within it – above 180.00
Right now resistances awaits at: 207.00 & 210.75
Supports come in at: 202.15 & 200.75
The real danger comes from the possibility to lose 180.00 and go to free fall – but it doesn’t look probable now.
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