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EURUSD 4h
Resistances: 1.13550, 1.13750 & 1.14250
Supports: 1.13200, 1.13050 & 1.12650
As long as EUR ( in next 4h) holds above 1.13150, it will go for a test of resistance at 1.13750
Only below 1.13000 we can see test of supports – 1.12650
Close of this bar – right here – is going in favour of Higher
US OPEN
USD softer whilst US equity futures gain ahead of US NFP, AMZN/AAPL dip post-earnings
Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 7 things you need to know for today’s market.t
7 Things You Need to Know
China is said to be conducting an assessment on US trade negotiations and urged the US to demonstrate sincerity for trade talks, while it urged the US to correct mistakes regarding tariffs and noted it is currently evaluating possible US trade talks.
US Secretary of State Rubio said the Chinese want to meet and talk, while he added those talks will come up soon and there’s a broader question about how much we should buy from China going forward.
Japanese Finance Minister Kato said Japan’s huge US Treasury holdings are among the tools it can wield in trade negotiations with the US but added that whether Japan wields that card is a different question.
European bourses are entirely in the green as the region returns from holiday; US equity futures gain, AMZN -2% & AAPL -2.7% pre-market.
USD’s recovery pauses for breath as markets brace for NFP, AUD outperforms.
Gilts outperform, EGBs largely unaffected by HICP, USTs digest trade updates & Kato’s remarks into NFP.
Crude is on the backfoot, whilst XAU and base metals benefit from the softer Dollar.
USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART – BACK BELLOW 145
As I noted with GOLD, I pay special attention when a pivotal (“magic”) level comes on the radar… USDJPY 145 is alone of my pivotal (“magic”) levels and the move back below has cooled the upside.
This level will now set the trading tone post-US jobs report… yesterday’s breakout zone was 143.89-144.19… only back below this area would put it back into a range to 142,50
XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – At a crucial level
As I noted, I pay special attention when a pivotal (“magic”) level comes on the radar… in this regard support just above 3200 has seen a bounce back to former support at 3260
Watch 3260 along with the trendline as firm moves above are needed to suggest the low is in place for now.
There is some divergence with GOLD up despite hope on the trade war front.
Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows…
.. the dollar trading softer on some signs of a thaw in U.S.-China tariff as markets look for any glimmer of hope . AUD, NZD and JPY outperforming vs the USD
GOLD up despite risk on mood
US stocks bounced from late day dip on Amazon and Apple earnings reports.
Next key focus is on the US jobs report. It seems inevitable that there will be some misses on thew downside in US data, not if but when.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Breakout time
Breakout through 143.89-144.19 and then 145+ was like slicing through Swiss cheese.
Now the hard part…
With next key level not until above 147, there are no obvious stops to go after… so 145 needs to become support to set the tone with a strong bid. Otherwise, upside will cool.
Stocks hit after the close following Amazon results…. looking at the numbers apparently there was some disappointment..
US500 DAILY CHART – Is there more to this rally?
Are there more legs to this rally?
All I can say is that the bottom is in as long as SP500 trades above 5500.
On the upside, above 5727-5787 would be needed to suggest this is more than a retracement.
Watch US data… if there are to be surprises it will be on misses on downside (i.e. weaker data).
XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – 3200 – 3260
Performing technically … break of 3260 opened the door for 3193-3211… low 3201, suggesting 3200 is the pivotal level on the downside….Note I always pay attention to my magic levels , which in this casewis 3200.
On the upside, key level is clear at 3260 as only back above it neutralizes the downside risk.
US yields rise after better than expected manufacturing report
Key points:· ISM manufacturing PMI beats forecasts, but production and export orders decline
· Tariffs strain supply chains and elevate input prices, delaying potential Fed rate cuts
· Fed funds futures show 68% chance of June rate cut, 7% for May meeting
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· Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields rose from three-week lows on Thursday after a better than expected manufacturing report for April, which also showed that tariffs on imported goods were straining supply chains and maintaining elevated prices for inputs.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said that its manufacturing PMI dropped to a five-month low of 48.7 last month, beating economists’ forecasts for a drop to 48
The survey’s measure of prices paid by manufacturers for inputs rose to 69.8, the highest level since June 2022.
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