- This topic has 28,290 replies, 54 voices, and was last updated 33 minutes ago by .
-
EURUSD 4h
Yet again EUR got stuck within a range – rectangle : 1.10650 – 1.12650
Right now it is trying to move higher, with resistances waiting at:
1.12050, 1.12200 & 1.12450
Supports: 1.11850, 1.11650 & 1.11350
Needs a close above 1.12050 of this bar to be able to test higher.
On the down side move can occur only if below 1.11650
SocGen’s Overnight Economic News Summary
Societe Generale in its early Friday economic news summary pointed out:— Bond yields stay lower after relief rally on lower United States ‘control’ retail sales and producer price index in April, curve bull flattens. 10-year U.S. Treasury dips to 4.41%, 30-year down to 4.87%. 10-year Bund retreats to 2.59%. Money market pricing the next Federal Reserve cut in September. VIX set for lowest weekly close since Feb. 21. The US dollar narrowly misses out on fourth successive weekly gain.
— Japan’s Q1 gross domestic product contracts 0.7% quarter over quarter SAAR (-0.2% quarter over quarter), below forecast. Deflator up to 3.3%, net exports subtract 0.8pp off GDP, inventories add 0.3pp. Private consumption flat, non-residential investment +1.4%.
— Mexico’s Banxico lowers policy rate by 50bps to 8.50%, signals further reduction to 8.0% in June. House view 7.25% by end 2025.
— Day ahead: U.S. housing starts, import prices, University of Michigan Sentiment, Fed speakers Barkin and Laubach. European Central Bank’s Lane. Bank of England’s Lombardelli. Poland’s core consumer price index. Romania’s central bank forecast to keep policy on hold.
— Nikkei -0.1%, EUR 10-year IRS -3bps at 2.52%, Brent crude -0.3% at $64.3/barrel, Gold -0.2% at $3,216/oz.
Nikkei Chart
What’s hot
USD has been flipping between hot and cold today around EURUSD 1.12 (the dollar/anti-dollar indicator)
US bonds remain hot (lower yields),,, see if it cools off if 4.40% 10 year becomes a floor
US stocks simmering, trying to turn hot
What’s not
GOLD is down but its temperature will be dictated by how it trades vs. 3200
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – What AT is showing
Downtrend that needs a break of 144.82 to confirm… low today 144.92
Key resistance: 146.24, Intra -day: 145.45-50, 145.75-80
145 pivotal and key to setting the tone going forward
AT = The Amazing Trader
Click on the Amazing Trader link in the upper menu bar to learn more and claim your free 30-day trial
Why China’s neighbours may want currency deals with Trump
Key points:
·        Asian currencies rise amid U.S. trade negotiations
·        China’s trade truce impacts Korea, Japan, Taiwan strategies
·        Currency revaluation poses economic and market risks
As the currencies of South Korea, Taiwan and Japan rise, so too is chatter that these economies could use exchange rate revaluation as a carrot in trade talks with U.S. President Donald Trump.
While a stronger currency has historically meant a competitive disadvantage for these Asian exporters, revaluation may now be the least costly bargaining chip in their scramble for favourable trading terms with the U.S.
The Korean won USDKRW surged this week after officials there said currency policy was discussed at a meeting they had in Milan with U.S. officials on May 5. That comes just days after U.S.-Taiwan talks triggered an unprecedented 8% surge in the Taiwan dollar USDTWD.
Japan’s finance minister is meanwhile seeking to meet U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at the G7 meetings in Canada next week to discuss foreign exchange.
Market participants have been quick to connect these developments with China’s surprise 90-day trade truce with United States on the weekend at Geneva.
“This China deal is very bad news for Korea, for Japan, for anybody waiting in the queue, because now they need to offer what China managed to avoid,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis.
USD – Korean Won Chart
XAUUSD (GOLD) 4 HOURCHART –  What AT is showing
Consolidating
One look at this chart shows why I use AT for my trading.
Sharp reversal from 3120 contained below 3265 (high 3152)… as noted yesterday, to build momentum 3265 would need to be broken, which would expose the opening week gap
3200 is clearly pivotal as above it is needed to keep a bid…. low today 3195 = key intra-day support.
AT = The Amazing Trader
Click on the Amazing Trader link in the upper menu bar to learn more and claim your free 30-day trial
Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows…
… the dollar trading slightly softer but in tight ranges… EURUSD focus remains on 1.12… USDJPY 145 so far holding (low 144.92)…NZD has been an outperformer
Gold has backed off after yesterday’s sharp reversal… 3200 remains pivoital
US stocks holding firm
US bonds firmer (yields lower again) but 4.40% 10 year trying to be a floor
Looking ahead: US Building Permits/Housing Starts (Apr), Uni. of Michigan Prelim. (May), Export/Import Prices (Apr).
Although the dollar fell vs. the interest rate sensitive JPY and CHF on Thursday, it would have been easier to explain the price action if it had weakened across=the=board. Â Alas, that was not the case even though the US 10 year yield fell from 4.55% ton 4.43%.
So, it seems to be a good time to revisit this blog article
Interest Rates and Why they Matter to Forex Traders
NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR CHART –  What AT is saying
Similar to US500, extending its high marginally but unlike US500 its next key resistance is at the record 22224 high.
This makes 21000-22000 a tough zone, needing 21344 to become support to make a run at the record high.
Support on dips while above 21116, 20607-20740 below it..
XAUUSD – Gold Daily
Resistances: 3240.00, 3270.00 & 3340.00
Supports: 3165.00, 3120.00 & 3065.00
We are all used to Gold bouncing back Up and hitting yet another high.
But I see The Double Top up there….
And unless this Gold buying lunacy continues unchecked, we should be seeing some serious correction towards 2965.00 – to start with.
DAX Daily
When you pull back for a moment from trying to figure out what is the next move on DAX, one fact just hits you – this is the biggest move EVER in one single motion – one huge and extremely steep wave.
Over 5.000 pips in just over one month.
Now it becomes kind of crazy to predict that it’s gonna go Up some more…
But this is exactly how it looks like right now.
Ultimate target is at 24.800 and in any other circumstance I would bet on it.
Pattern that we are looking at ( today’s development and the close DAX managed to achieve ) calls for tomorrow : Next Leg UP.
However, I am becoming wary more and more….it comes from the fact that something like this has never happened before on DAX .
So let’s our imagination flies some more – if DAX really hits it up as I just said, it’s real target lies more in 28.500 area …
Be very careful , and never forget the old adage : the way it goes Up is exactly the way it’s gonna go Down 😀
US Stocks Rise for 4th Session
US stocks gained traction, benefiting from reprieve for Treasuries across the curve amid bets that the Federal Reserve will deliver multiple rate cuts this year.
The S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, and the Dow were all close to 0.5% higher.
Fresh data showed that headline producer prices fell sharply in April to back the view of disinflation following the softer CPI print this week.
Also, core sectors of retail sales unexpectedly contracted in the period, favoring bets that the Fed will adjust monetary policy to support the economy.
Industrials, utilities, and pharmaceuticals led the gains.
GE gained over 3% as Qatar pinned Boeing’s largest wide-body aircraft order to be solely maid with GE engines.
Also, Cisco led the tech sector following its results.
On the other hand, Walmart trimmed early losses but remained in the red after warning that tariffs forced stores to raise their prices this month.
Also, UnitedHealth sank 14$ amid reports that it will be investigated for Medicare fraud.
Nasdaq Chart
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.