[GVI Forex 2]

For the scalpers

Watch correlation with US bonds

For example,

10 year 4.091 => EURUSD 1.1715

then

10 year 4,076 => EURUSD 1.1726

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ)

Hit a wall at 23867 but to turn it into anything more than consolidation, 23375=23471would need to be taken out.

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 (SP500)

Upside looking a bit tired after failing to challenge its 6533 record high but would need to break 6483 to pressure the downside. Otherwise, consolidaiion.

In any case, 6500 remains pivotal, currently below it.

US500 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

What’s hot and what’s not?

What’s hot?

Dollar catching a bid after trading lower overnight

Crude oil is up

What’s not?

Currencies down after giving back earlier gains

US bonds down (yields ticking up)

US stocks turning down

Bitcoin down modestly

What’s hot/not?

GOLD still up on the day but well off another record high

 

[GVI Forex 2]

US yields up (USD up) despite NFP benchmark revisions. Those looking ahead are keeping an eye out for PPI on Wed and CPI on Thurs

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCHF

More of a follower than a leader so watch EURUSD for a clue.

I took a double take looking at this chart where resistance is every 10 pips from .7956-96, bottom end holding so far

USDCHF 30 MINUTE CHART

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Revisions near top of the range… but little impact on Fed rate cut pricing

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[GVI Forex 2]

Consensus benchmark NFP revision -682K

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Stock Specifics

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[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Equity Open

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[GVI Forex 2]

GOLD extends record high on heightened geopolitical risk (see below)

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[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD headling back towards 1.1750 after finding support midway 1.1720-35… should not be a surprise as defense takes over ahead of the benchmark revisions

Preliminary NFP revisions data should not be big event but market will react, especiqally if outside the expected range.

[GVI Forex 2]

Looks like markets on hold waiting for the NFP benchmark revisions in about an hour.

[ST London]

How many are setup short usd waiting for benchmark revisions will tilt Fed to 50bps cut even though it is only to March?

[GVI Forex 2]

Traders likely bracing for this although more important final revisions are not due until Feb 2026.

BLS PRELIM BENCHMARK REVISIONS 

The BLS will release the preliminary 2025 benchmark revisions to the establishment survey at 10:00EDT/15:00BST on September 9th, 2025.

See detailed preview

 

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD

Why forex levels matter.

Held test of 1.1735 support (see prior post)  BUT

Needs now to regain 1.1744 for 1.1750 to attract again

EURUSD 30 MINUTE CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD

Bobby called it right last night… Test of upside, resistance 1.1770-90 (high 1.1780)

Focus back to 1.1750, needs to hold 1.1720-35,  below it risk shifts back to 1.1700.

Note: Weaker EUR crosses (e.g. vs JPY, GBP) a weight on EURUSD

EURUSD DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

French-German 10 year bond yield spread

This is where to look for any additional signs of stress after the spread shot out on the initial announcement of a no confidence vote

[GVI Forex 2]

Note the Power of the “50” level;

EURUSD 11750
USDJPY 146.50
GBPUSD 1.3550
XAUUSD 3650

Good time to revisit or read for the first time this article

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY low 146,30 vs. 146.21 support cited earlier… last 146.49 (146.50 remains pivotal)

[Mtl JP]

ST – markets blinking

US debt runs 123% of gdp; in frogland 114%
wsj editorial is asking how to save macron (but not trump from calls to resign)

[Mtl JP]

USDYEN 146.42
–
couple more pips down and puppy will be breaking out of recent range

ch-ch-change …
will be good

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News

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[ST London]

I am not sure if this is the case but in the past Japanese are known to repatriate money back home in times of crisis.

Or it might just be jpy shorts caught wrong footed and squeezed by BoJ putting rate hike back on the table even though odds are against it.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD

Bulls taking control following the solid break above 13550

1. Now faces obstacles at 1.3620 and 1.3681 ahead of the major 1.3788 level.

Keeps its bid while above 1.3550, minor support 1.3527, only sub-1.3486 would fully negate it.

GBPUSD DAILY CHART

1. 

[GVI Forex 2]

Everyone’s trying the New 2-Phase. Are you?

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY

The old saying it is the reaction to news that matters proved true once again with USDJPY extending its retreat.

Key support at 146.56 (broken, use 146.50 as the pivotal level) and 146.21 block exposing 145.75.

Key intra=day resistance 147.33, stays offered while 147.00 caps the upside.

USDJPY DAILY CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD)

Another day, another record high (3659)

Now that 3650 has been broken, it now becomes the pivotal level and bias setter while within 3600=3700

Intra-DAY, maintains a bid while above 3628 but for an uber bid,m3650 needs to become support.

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a Heatmap shows…

… the dollar staying on the defensive with the JPY outperforming and the EURUSD lagging.

A key focus today will be on US benchmark employment revisions for the 12 months through March 2025.

On order of strength vs the USD*

1. JPY

2. GBP

3. AUD

4. NZD

5. CAD

6. CHF

7. EUR

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY dips: Is it a clever form of verbal intervention?

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