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Us OPEN
Trump suggests a trade deal with China is “possible”, USD/JPY briefly dipped below 150 ahead of US data & Fed speak
Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 5 things you need to know for today’s market.
5 Things You Need to Know
US President Trump remarked that a new trade deal with China is possible; EU’s Sefcovic says they are prepared to talk about reducing the 10% US auto tariff.
European bourses opened mixed but have gradually edged higher; US futures modestly lower.
USD is softer vs. peers, JPY benefits from yield dynamics, AUD boosted post-jobs.
USTs inch higher continuing post-FOMC price action while EGBs remain in the red.
Crude and metals benefit from the softer Dollar; Rio Tinto says “Near-term market conditions are expected to remain challenging in 2025”.
EURUSD Daily
On the edge – Support 1.04150 – Resistance 1.04450
Mere break of any of it won’t mean much – most important is how the day will close!
We’ll wait for Initial Jobless Claims today – Economic Data Calendar
Here is how to get on the right side of the market with high proability trades.
Have You Ever Thought Of Forex Trading Being a Series of Episodes?
DAX – GER 30
Dax broke marginally the support at 22.450 ( closed at 22.433.63) and based on severity of the drop ( I mentioned that possibility – Savage profit taking) , now the level below that is waiting is at 22.100
I am not expecting it to go straight down, but more of a tug of war game…
So stay put and unless we see a pattern forming for possible continuation UP ( and if it happens I’ll see it before it happens 🙂 , expect a change of the trend.
EURUSD Daily – Update
So far support at 1.04050 proved worthy.
For tomorrow it is going to be around 1.04100/150
Resistance is at 1.04450
Without tomorrow’s bar , this is no man’s land right now – if there was not a possible trend line just below it, I would call this as a Sell.
However, my historical trend lines never fail – so we need to see what is going to happen tomorrow before any direction might be considered.
XAUUSD – GOLD 4h
Here comes one hypothetical situation – kind of training session…in real time and for real money.
Let’s say one is Long Gold , waiting to see his/her profit target at 3.000 ( stubborn one :D, and missed to take a profit at previous highs ( seen it three times close to 2950.00)
Now what to do?
First to calculate if trailing stop at 2900.00 might work for him/her.If not, a tricky job is in front of us – for Gold to continue Up and reach a new high, 2935.00 has to be taken out in next two ( 2 ) hours.
If not taken out and this bar closes below 2935.00 , next leg will be down ( 95% chance)
I said two days ago that Top on Gold is being formed – when it comes to tops , after such a prolonged rally ( started on January 1st of this year ) few pips up or down do not matter – what matters is a formation – pattern that repeats every time , and it is becoming clear that without a decent correction this Rally is no more….
Now the rule is : once you miss the exit point / profit target , you have to bail out at best , even if at the end it moves in your direction more then you expected – you cannot afford another mistake – one is already done .
So, watch closely how it develops in next two hours and if it doesn’t go over 2935.00 start acting – you have enough time to think till then.
If you can live with the trailing stop at 2900.00 you can take your chance and in case Gold closes tonight above it, there is a chance of another leg up with a possible target at 3010.00
As long as you can exit your position with the profit , do not risk to have a loss at the end because you are hoping for another chance.
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