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EURUSD Watch the “50” level
- Ran stops above 1.1648 (more likely above 1.1650)
- Paused below 1.1681 (next resistance)
- Trades back down… focus on the “50” level (1.1650) to set the trading tone (currently bid above it)
Layers of intra-day supports”
- 1.1643 (key level)
- 1.1636
- 1.1627
- 1,1617
- 1.1610
EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP Drop. Why ‘Uptober’ Isn’t Going to Plan for Crypto
The price of Bitcoin was sliding early Thursday, as a miserable month so far for crypto investors went from bad to worse.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency slipped 2.2% to $110,558 over the past 24 hours, according to data from CoinDesk. It’s now trading about 14% off the record high it hit earlier in October.
Among other tokens, Ethereum fell 3.6%, Solana dropped 6.5%, and XRP slid 5% over the past 24 hours, according to data from the crypto exchange Kraken.
Heightened trade tensions between China and the U.S. this week have led to investors dumping risk-on assets, with cryptocurrencies taking the brunt of it. At one point on Sunday, Bitcoin was down 15.4% from its all-time high, outstripping the percentage-points loss the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered the day of the 1929 Wall Street crash.
Octobers aren’t supposed to go this way for cryptos. Bitcoin had risen nine out of the previous 11 Octobers before this year, according to Dow Jones Market Data, leading to some bulls christening the month “Uptober.”
BTCUSD Chart
Global Markets Mixed as Dollar Drops on Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Gold Reaches New Record
U.S. stock futures were mixed. The dollar dropped after the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book economic report confirmed expectations of further interest-rate cuts as the U.S. economy’s momentum slows. Market watchers see a 25-basis-point cut later this month, with some expecting another in December.Simmering trade tensions between the U.S. and China put downward pressure on markets. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticized China’s efforts to curb exports of rare-earth metals. However, they left the door open to discussions and potential de-escalation in talks between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the end of this month.
The weaker dollar and uncertainty kept safe-haven demand for gold high.
· U.S. stock futures for the S&P 500 were up 0.4%. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.04% and Nasdaq futures were up 0.7%.
· European indices were down in early trading, except for Switzerland, where shares in consumer-goods giant Nestle rose sharply on the back of strong nine-month results.
· In Asia, stocks were mixed as Japan’s Nikkei 225 index gained 1.3%, whereas Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.1%. China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite gained 0.1%.
· Dollar fell on expectations of an interest-rate cut. Sterling remained elevated against the dollar and traded steady versus the euro, showing little reaction after data showed the U.K. economy grew in line with expectations in August. Sterling rises 0.1% to $1.3420. Euro is down 0.1% at 0.8678 pounds. The DXY dollar index falls 0.2% to 98.626.
· Eurozone bond yields edged higher in opening trade. Some analysts expect the spread between French government bonds, or OAT, and German bonds, or Bunds, could tighten further below 80 basis points as French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu is seen to survive a vote on confidence. The 10-year OAT-Bund yield spread is 78.6 basis points. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields were down nearly 2 basis points at 4.028%.
· Oil prices rose after President Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged to halt purchases of Russian oil. The move could disrupt global flows and gives oil a boost amid fears of a supply glut. Brent crude and WTI rise 0.9% to $62.45 and $58.33 a barrel, respectively.
· Gold rose to a new record high, extending the previous session’s gains as U.S.-China trade tensions, the federal government shutdown and rate-cut bets boost demand. In early trade, futures in New York were up 1% to $4,244.20 a troy ounce after reaching $4,255.40 earlier. Spot gold climbed 1.6% to $4,207.77
Gold Chart
FX option expiries for 16 October 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.
They are all for EUR/USD with the expiries layered through 1.1600 to 1.1700. The pair is doing battle around the 100-day moving average of 1.1645 currently and the expiries at 1.1650 could play a role in terms of keeping price action more anchored in the session ahead.
That said, the near-term bias is more bullish now on the week and that could see price extensions to the upside in European trading. So, the expiries at 1.1700 adds some layer to the ceiling for now at least.
As for the larger ones at 1.1600, they shouldn’t factor much into play unless we get some headlines leading to dollar bids in a change of pace. The 100 and 200-hour moving averages at 1.1600 and 1.1625 are also key near-term levels to watch in case of any downside shoves during the session ahead.
Forex Market Snapshot (mixed bag)
- The dollar is trading mixed after backing off from earlier lows.
- GBPUSD is again outperforming (along with NZD()as it dud yesterday (note firmer GBPUSD crosses)
- JPY, AUD, CAD a touch lower
- EURUSD focus is on the pivotal 1.1650 level to set its tone after running stops above it overnight
This article could have been entitled … “to all traders”
Interest Rates and Why they Matter to Forex Traders
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