[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• Tentative signs of a bottom on shorter time frames would need to see 4020 broken on the 4 hour upside to confirm.
• Resistance: 3970, 4020
• Only a break of the 3886 low would force more liquidations.

XAUUSD  4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Crude Oil Wrap

[GVI Forex 2]

USDCAD UPDATE

• Momentum building to the downside.
• Supports 1.3896-1.3930 ahead of a void, top end needs to hold to check the downside..

USDCAD DAILY CHART

[GVI News]

Risk on amid US-China trade optimism is being seen in firmer commodity currencies.

[GVI Forex 2]

Middle East Update

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[GVI Forex 2]

US500 UPDATE

• Make the market:6871-6900
• Kept its bid above 6871 but the big figure (round number) 6900 still causing it to pause.

US500 1 HOUR CHART

[Mtl JP]

1) WSJ
The Fed Is Flying Blind at Its Next Meeting: Here’s What to Watch
WSJ’s Nick Timiraos explains the three things to watch during the central bank’s upcoming interest rate decision.

The Fed’s $6.6 Trillion Test: When to End Its Portfolio Runoff

2) ZH
Risk Assets Lean On Fed For A Fresh Liquidity Boost
Any imminent end to the Fed’s QT program will help boost an improving global liquidity backdrop and be decisively more supportive for risk assets.

[GVI Forex 2]

Middle East Update (crude oil  pops higher)

Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• Posted this earlier using a 30 minute chart and change in directional risk has been confirmed
• Using Amazing Trader charting algo logic, pattern shows a potential for a change in directional risk (to up) .
• On one hour, the trendline is the next obstacle with 4020 the level that would confirm the low is in and momentum is broken.

XAUUSD  15 MINUTE CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD UPDATE

Classic example of using crosses to trades SpotFX

• EURGBP buying: Tug-of-war between EURUSD and GBPUSD
• EURUSD follows GBPUSD lower with a lag
• GBPUSD pauses above key 1.3248 support, then bounces as
• EURGBP stabilizes
• EURUSD selling dries up… bounces back to 1.1668 (double top)… key resistance 1.1675′
• 1.1650 remains pivotal… currently above it

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE

• Paused below big figure 26000 but stays bid today while above 25815

NAS100 1 HOUR CHART

[Mtl JP]

grrr someone reads my post and …
pulls back. but I suspect “they” linger around for 1.1720+ zoom

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.1661 as I type.

breach of 70 has odds of seeing 50 pips North more

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP UPDATE

• Chart shows move from 8202 at start of the year has not had a monthly retracement
• 2 year high above .8765
• Spot impact: Tug-of-war between EURUSD (supported) and GBPUSD (weaker but paused above key 1.3248 support)

EURGBP MONTHLY CHART

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Stock Specifics

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[GVI Forex 2]

CB Consumer Confidence beats

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[GVI Forex 2]

Middle East Update

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[GVI Forex 2]

Time for a pause? Big figures (round numbers) vs highs in indices

US500 high 6897 vs. 6900 big figure

NAS100 high 25966 vs, 26000 big figure

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 UPDATE

• You would think that the deck would be cleared of buy stops but chart (large green candle) suggests otherwise.
• Best hope for a pause would be around the 6900 big figure but trying to pick a top has been a losing bet by anyone standing in front of this train.
• Minor support: 6888. US500 6871 is more important intra-day.

US500 30 MINUTE CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

Stops run below GBPUSD 1.3287…

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily Equity Opening News

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[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD UPDATE

• 2 one-way red candles suggest real-money selli order(s)
• Pressured lower out of its crosses (e.g. EURGBP, GBPJPY)
• Range intact while above 1.3287… below it would put key 1.3248 support in play
• Intra-day resistance: 1.3328

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

ADP will be reporting weekly jobs data every Tuesday (except the week when it reports monthly jobs)

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[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Pre-Market Movers

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[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE

• Using Amazing Trader charting algo logic, pattern shows a potential for a change in directional risk (to up) while above 3897.
• To confirm the pattern and a break in momentum, 3936 would need to be firmly regained.
• A break of 3886 would continue a liquidating market

XAUUSD  15 MINUTE CHART

[Mtl JP]

gold
12.7% on little over a week in a leveraged market is bloody – to some
usually those making moola, especialy mountains of it, don’t boast

especially in Gold

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Daily US Opening News

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[Mtl JP]

Reuters
“Top brokerages eye consecutive Fed rate cuts for the rest of 2025”

[GVI Forex 2]

Anyone trading the meltdown in GOLD should read this article

What is a Liquidating Market and How to Trade It

Trade It?

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY UPDATE

• It is easy to cite reasons for a weaker USDJPY (firmer JPY) today:
• Central bank meetings (Fed rate cut vs BoJ unchanged expectations), MoF/BoJ containing JPY weakness during Trump’s visit to Japan, unwinding of JPY funded carry trades, most notably vs. GOLD but charts gave the clue
• 153.27 was cited here as a line in the sand level and a failure to crack it has been a factor in stalling the upside.

Charts:

• 151.75 = intra-day low, 151.45 is key support
• Resistance: 152.22 an 152.56 (former lows)

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART

[Author]

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