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NAS100 (NASDAQ) UPDATE
- The runaway train has finally lost some steam but only a test/break of the opening week gap to last Friday’s 25375 would suggest anything more than just a pause.
- Note Amazon earnings beat gave stocks a late day lift. Next up Apple earnings.
- Similar to US500, it’s month end and not a typical end to the week so watch the 26000 level as it will be pivotal in setting the tone.
NAS100 4 HOUR CHART
Amazon beats (stock pops higher)
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Newsquawk US FX Wrap
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EURUSD UPDATE
- Classic path of least resistance trade where EURUSD bid out of its crosses did not follow through.
- Worked technically as well, break of 1.1576 (stops) made a run at 1.1641. Pause above it 1.1547 low forced a pause.
- Onus on the bull side to close above 1.1576 and regain 1.1600-23 to change risk.
EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART
Why can’t Ethereum hold $4K? ETH recovery in doubt as data leans bearish
· Ether consolidated around $4,000 as the lack of futures demand and weak ETF flows suggest the absence of bullishness.
· Declining Ethereum network fees and activity suggest lower onchain demand.
· Analysts warn of a drop to $3,500 if the support at $4,000 is not reclaimed shortly.
Ether ETHUSD has oscillated around $4,000 for the past two weeks, a consolidation period following its flash crash below $3,500 on Oct. 11.
Ether traders are now assessing the likelihood of further bullish momentum after the US Federal Reserve confirmed a 0.25% interest rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening.
Ether price lacks sustained bullish sentiment
Ether futures are currently trading at a 5% premium relative to standard ETH spot markets, reflecting low demand from buyers using leverage.
In neutral market conditions, futures premiums typically range between 5% and 10% to account for the longer settlement period. More concerningly, even the recent recovery to $4,250 did not restore sustained bullish sentiment among traders.
Euro Holds Steady Amid Mixed European Data and Central Bank Moves
The euro edged up to $1.162 as investors digested a mix of economic data and central bank developments.
GDP figures showed that Germany and Italy stalled in Q3, while France and the Netherlands expanded at a faster pace.
On the inflation front, regional German CPI data pointed to a slight slowdown in price pressures, although inflation accelerated in North Rhine-Westphalia, the country’s most populous state.
Meanwhile, Spain’s CPI unexpectedly picked up.
Looking at monetary policy, the ECB is expected to hold interest rates steady later today, following the Federal Reserve’s second consecutive rate cut, although Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated further cuts this year are not guaranteed.
USDJPY Technical Analysis: Fed’s Powell sounds hawkish while BoJ stays neutral
Fundamental Overview
The USD strengthened across the board yesterday following a hawkish comment from Fed Chair Powell. In fact, the Fed decision was in line with expectations but the only thing that mattered is one line from Powell saying “a December cut is not a foregone conclusion – in fact, far from it”.
He repeated that a few times suggesting that there’s really a strong debate within the FOMC. Remember that the neutral and hawkish members outnumber the dovish members easily. Of course, everything is conditional to the data, but Powell also added that in case they don’t get the data, they might as well skip the December cut.
We saw bit of a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations with the December probability falling to 70% vs 90% before Powell’s speech. The total easing by the end of 2026 shows 87 bps which is still too dovish compared to 50 bps expected by the Fed.
On the JPY side, the currency weakened across the board as the BoJ left interest rates unchanged as expected with again two dissenters voting for a hike. There were no surprises. BoJ governor Ueda offered limited forward guidance as he mostly repeated the same stuff highlighting trade uncertainty and focus on spring wage negotiations. The market pricing turned a little bit more dovish as the probability for a December hike fell to just 26% with the next hike expected in March 2026 at the earliest.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
USDJPY daily
On the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY is breaking above the resistance around the 153.25 level where we have the confluence of the previous high and the top trendline. The buyers likely increased the bullish bets to target a move into the 154.80 level next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the resistance to step back in and position for a pullback into the 151.00 support.
Today’s Market Minute
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he had agreed with President Xi Jinping to trim tariffs on China in exchange for Beijing cracking down on the illicit fentanyl trade, resuming U.S. soybean purchases and keeping rare earths exports flowing.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, as expected. However, a policy divide within the U.S. central bank and a lack of federal government data may put another interest rate cut out of reach this year, the Fed Chair indicated.
The centrist D66 party made huge gains in Dutch elections likely giving it the lead in the formation of the next government, as the party of far-right leader Geert Wilders lost support.
The U.S. labor market has been characterized as a ‘no hire, no fire’ landscape for much of the past year. But, writes ROI markets columnist Jamie McGeever, ‘no hire, more fire’ increasingly looks more accurate.
A new wave of Western sanctions on Russia’s oil industry has roiled the diesel market, sending refining margins soaring, but global supplies are unlikely to be severely disrupted for long. Read the latest from ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso.
Reuters
A must readin our blog ahead of month end
Month-End FX Rebalancing Flows: What They Are and How to Trade Them
USDJPY UPDATE
- Break of 153.25 leaves a giant void on the upside until 158. Next pivotal big figure level is 155.
- So, use the most recent high as resistance (e.g. 153.88) with a bid bias while above 153.25
- Note JPY trading weaker on its crosses, creating a tug-of-war with other currencies.
USDJPY1 HOUR CHART
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