[GVI Forex 2]

Unless EURUSD can regain 1.05, the risk is pointed down. Questioon is whethjer the easiest path is in its crosses (e.g. EURJPY) or in the dollart.

So I thought it was time to revisit this popular article gioven the fresh run against the EUR.

Forex Trading: Seeking the Path of Least Resistance – A Common Sense Way to Trade

[GVI Forex 2]

Unless EURUSD can regain 1.05, the risk is pointed down. Questioon is whethjer the easiest path is in its crosses (e.g. EURJPY) or in the dollart.

So I thought it was time to revisit this popular article gioven the fresh run against the EUR.

Forex Trading: Seeking the Path of Least Resistance – A Common Sense Way to Trade

 

 

[GVI Forex 2]

ISM PMI due at 15:00 GMT — see our Economic Calendar

[SF Monedge]

One of the better trades I see is sell side of EurJpy but from higher than present market.  Catching falling knives in other pairs does not look appealing.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUYSD 4 HOUR CHArtT – Targets or supports?

More like targets than supports

1.0474, 1.0457, 1.0425 (key)

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJPY selling order… below 158.00-10 opens a void… key levels arw not until 154.37 and 153.10

[GVI Forex 2]

The Savvy Trqder added an addendum to his update

Latest USDJPY and EURJPY Updates From the Savvy Trader

[GVI Forex 2]

Chatter is there could be a French no confidence vote as early as Wednesday

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 30 MIN CHART – RESISTANCE HOLDS

Usin my Amazing Trader chart, this is why I highlighted 1`0537 as a key day resistance

Current down momentum stays intact as long as 1.0537 is not broken.

[GVI Forex 2]

Watch our for French political headlines… French PM Barnier speaks in parliamnent in about an hour… his office confirmed govt will SCRAP PLANS TO REDUCE MEDICATION REIMBURSEMENTS…MAY BE WHY EURUSD JUST POPPED… Res still at 1.0537

[GVI Forex 2]

NEWSQUAWK US OPEN

USD bid amid further tariff threats ahead of ISM Manufacturing, OATs in focus as the French gov’t awaits Le Pen’s decision

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses began the session in negative territory, but sentiment quickly improved to show a mostly positive picture in Europe; US futures modestly lower.

Dollar is propped up by further Trump tariff threats, EUR dragged by political uncertainty and tests 1.05 to the downside.

OATs in focus as the French gov’t awaits Le Pen’s decision; USTs are slightly lower ahead of US ISM Manufacturing PMIs.

WTI & Brent are on a firmer footing following better-than-expected Chinese PMIs, XAU/base metals pressured by the firmer Dollar.
Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

 

[GVI Forex 2]

10 Year Bond snapshots

Note the divergence with German yields. Also note  US 10 year yield closed at 4.178% on Friday

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART – Key support looms

Keep an eye on EURGBP as an indicator of EUR weakness, with offsets keeping a bid under GB{USD

Now approaching a major support at .8267. below sees a clear path for .8200 other than the pivotal .8250 level.

Only back above .8300-05 would postpone the risk.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – NOT A SAFE HAVEN

At least for today XAUUSD is acting more like a currency than a safe haven (note French political uncertainty)

So far failure to make a serious run at the highs makes itr dependent on 2600-20 holding to keep a bid.

Otherwise, needs to regain 2633+ to retore the risk to 2666.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART – WATCH 150

USDJPY is in sort of a no man’;s land where 1`50 will eventually dictate whether the low nis in or there is more room on the downside

Unlike last week, there are no stops until below the 149.46 low/  so revert to short-term chart for day trading.

Resistance is at150.74. key level above it is at 151.57

 

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Only a retracement

As we have been saying, the EURUSD rebound should be treated as a retracement unless `1.0610 is taken out.

Stall at 1.0596 confirms this view.

For today, 1.05 will clearly dictate whether it can go after1.0455-75.

Current down momentum stays intact as long as 1.0537 is not broken.

Only 1.0545-50+ would retore a bid.

[GVI Forex 2]

The euro fell due to political uncertainty in France, where the government faces a no-confidence vote, while the US dollar strengthened ahead of a key week for US interest rates. The Federal Reserve’s decision on December 18 is expected to impact markets, with traders predicting a 66% chance of a quarter-point rate cut. Global shares were lifted by tech stocks, and oil prices rose after Chinese manufacturing data, while gold sank under pressure from the strong dollar.

Euro slides, pressured by French political uncertainty

[GVI Forex 2]

US bond yielfd opening higher after Friday’s ;atew day slump…USDJPY baCK above 150

[michael Calif]

Nov 14 re-post.   Law of Time remains Long Euro, Yen, and 10yr futures; buying any and all dips.    Option Profile gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

Monday kicks off with final PMIs for November, with Germany’s manufacturing PMI expected to remain at a weak 43.2 and the UK’s at 48.6. In the US, the ISM manufacturing index may edge up to 47.6, still signaling contraction as concerns about weak demand and policy uncertainty linger.

Tuesday, South Korea’s inflation is forecasted at 1.6% annually for November after a rate cut last week due to economic slowdown fears.

Wednesday’s PMI updates for France, Germany, and the UK are expected unchanged, while the US ADP report forecasts private payrolls rising by 165,000.

Thursday, Eurozone retail sales should hold steady for October, while the US trade deficit is expected to narrow to $75.4 billion. Canada’s trade deficit is projected at C$0.65 billion.

Friday, Japan’s household spending is predicted to drop 2.6% annually due to sluggish demand, while US nonfarm payrolls may rebound by 200,000, with unemployment ticking up to 4.2%. Canada expects a modest 30,000 job gain, with unemployment rising slightly to 6.6%.

Econoday

[SF Monedge]

In scanning headlines and journalistic pieces I see nothing which would ring risk alarm bells, despite conflicts overseas.  So if there are no dramatic events it seems this week could be a risk on environment even if not stellar.  I mentioned Friday I felt we are entering a stock picking environment for a bit and so that is how I am approaching the week until proven wrong.

That being the case there is potential for non-US Dollar currencies to benefit after an obvious sell cycle.

[GVI Forex 2]

There was a 2nd bite of the cherry with the EurJpy rally to 162 but the UsdJpy could not maintain 150 and so now there will be trapped longs in both pairs who will try to manage their positions Sunday night.

All I will say is “how is that working out for them?”

Now for those that either missed out or are looking for a bottom to buy I say

Beware of what you wish for

Latest USDJPY and EURJPY Updates From the Savvy Trader

[Belgrade Bobby]

XRPUSD

Ripple Surpasses Solana as XRP Price Hits 6-Year High Above $2

The impressive performance of Ripple’s native token continues with another surge in the past 24 hours that pushed its price above $2 for the first time since early 2018.

In the process, XRP has surpassed SOL to become the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin

Right now the main obstacle for Bitcoin is 98.800.00 – break of will open a road for test of 100K and further advances.

Close tonight above 97.200 would create a Bullish pattern for Monday.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Supports : 1.05550 , 1.05150 & 1.04750

Resistances : 1.05950 , 1.06100 & 1.06750

1.06100 still the main barrier for any run up

[Belgrade Bobby]

Week ahead -USDJPY Daily

Supports : 149.450 , 149.050 & 148.250

Resistances : 150.350 , 151.950 & 152.050

Monday morning – two options :

–          Test of 150.350 and then run for the new low

–          New low first and then run for the 151.450

[GVI Forex 2]

Came out on Saturday

Trump threatens a 100% tariff on BRICS countries if they abandon U.S. dollar

[SF Monedge]

Risk aversion is how I am approaching this weekend.

Swiss Franc  is a good idea.

[GVI Forex 2]

Big week ahead for US data with fu;ll previews

Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights 2nd-6th December 2024

[GVI Forex 2]

All about bond yields

10 year 4.178%

[Author]

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