[GVI Forex 2]

GER30 4 HIUR CHART – KEY HIGH LOOMS

GER30 maintaining it buy bias a long as it trade above 19000.

On the upside,19564 is the last obstacle to 19679, needing to establish 19448_ to expose there levels (using this CFD feed).

[Mtl JP]

COUNTDOWN to Jan 20th 2025 at noon
gives a bit of time to prepare trading tactic
for maximum profits

CNN informs:
“Signs from Mar-a-Lago suggest that when Trump moves back into the White House he will act with maximum force”

[Mtl JP]

USDCHF 8791

be nice if puppy goes for 89

after that re-assess

[GVI Forex 2]

NEWSQUAWK US OPEN’

Equites gain & DXY bid with the Trump Trade still at play; Crude slumps amid constructive geopolitical updates

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start!

Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

Equities are entirely in the green, with a strong European morning thus far; the RTY outperforms.\

DXY is on a firmer footing with the Trump Trade still in action, JPY underperforms following the BoJ SOO which highlighted the lack of urgency to hike.

Bonds are mixed, with Bunds firmer amid suggestions that Chancellor Scholz could bring forward a vote of no-confidence; Treasury cash trade is closed on account of US Veterans Day.

Crude slips on comments by Hezbollah that there are negotiations to stop the war; XAU/base metals are hampered by the stronger Dollar and softer-than-expected Chinese inflation metrics overnight.

try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

Not signed up to our squawk service yet?

Listen to our team of analysts broadcast the news that will impact the markets as it happens, and never be caught off guard again.
Cancel anytime – free for 7 days

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1.0675

Intra-day: Would need to regain 1.0682 and then 1.0694 to ease the current risk to 1.0665 with potential for 1.0600 should 1.0650-65 be broken.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD DAILY CHART – Support zone

XAUUUSD retreat mirroring the risk on mood following Trump’s election.

So far it has paused above minor 2638 support. key level is clear at 2600.

To neutralize the risk, a move back above 2709 would be needed.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART – TESTING UPSIDE BUT…

Having held above 152 on Friday USDJPY has bounced to start the week,

One hour chart showing a risk to the upside that would need to take out 154.13 to expose the post-US election high at 154.71, g or this will be just a swing within the range.

Note, 153.98 is the remaining FIBO (78.6% of 154.71-151.28) , suggesting 154 may be pivotal.

On the downside, use short-term charts if looking for support with more meaningful levels not until the 152s.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD WEEKLY CHART – EXTENDS LOW

As posted in our Weekly FX Chart Outlook

Most at risk is EURUSD, which found support below 1.06 on 2 days but failure to hold 1.08+ on the retracement keeps a risk on 1.0665 and 1.0600 should the 1.0682 be broken.

Extend low, pause so far just above 1.0665 (low 1.0668)

[GVI Forex 2]

Reminder holidays in the US and Canada today

In the US banks and government offices srd closed but stock markets are open

Overnight stocks extending highs as Trump Trades continue.

[GVI Forex 2]

Reminder holidays in the US and Canada today

In the US banks and government offices srd closed but stock markets are open

Overnight stocks extending highs as Trump Trades continue.

[GVI Forex 2]

For the week ahead it is like digging out after what was not a normal trading week. So, use last week’s low/high as broad ranges (see below) that either have to narrow unless the USD highs are taken out.

Weekly FX Chart Outlook Nov 11-15

 

[GVI Forex 2]

BTCUSD WEEKLY CHART – TRUMP TRADE

Cryptos are the 4th component of the Trump Trade

BTCUSD extending its record high above 80K.

Thus in unchartered water use the most recent high as resistance.

Expect support on dips while above 75-80K, stronger bid if 80K becomes support.

[michael Calif]

is 106.25 the next step down for Euro; or 105.00 ?    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

The week ahead brings key economic data, highlighting inflation pressures and growth challenges. In Germany, October CPI is expected to rise 0.4% monthly and 2.0% annually, while the UK labor market may see unemployment edge up to 4.1%. US inflation remains a focus, with forecasts for October showing a 0.2% rise in headline CPI and 0.3% in core, pushing annual CPI up to 2.6%. Japan’s producer inflation may reach 3.0%, driven by energy costs amid geopolitical tensions.

Growth remains sluggish in Japan and the UK. Japan’s Q3 GDP is forecast to increase just 0.2%, a sharp slowdown due to weak consumer spending and business investment. The UK is also expected to post modest Q3 growth of 0.2%.

In the US, retail sales for October could see a boost from hurricane recovery and Amazon’s Prime Day event, with strong demand for vehicles and household goods. This week’s data will provide key insights into inflation trends, growth momentum, and consumer behavior across major economies.

Econoday

[Mtl JP]

well so far players are rejecting jerome’s “work” to make money cheaper

[GVI Forex 2]

JP, If Powell’s Fed slows down cutting rates you might see a Trump backlash… maybe it is inevitable… if it happens bond vigilantes would come out of the bunkers

[GVI Forex 2]

KP. If Powell’s Fed slows gown cutting rates you might see a Trump backlash… maybe it is inevitable… if it happens bond vigilantes would come out of the bunkers

[Mtl JP]

JEROME POWELL’S TERSE SQUEALINGS

10-yr 4.308 last

after 50pt rate cut AND a 25bps followup rate cut trying to force-feed lower interest rate, players have sharply pushed up Treasury yields since the central bank cut rates in September. essentially telling powell F-U

Asked by a reporter whether he would resign if incoming President Donald Trump were to ask, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said no. Powell added that Trump would not have the authority to demote him or any other governor. “Not permitted under the law,” Powell said.

cnbc
Elon Musk endorses plan to let presidents meddle with the Federal Reserve after Trump election win

Regardless of jerome’s emphatic insistence this dem’s and harris supporter’s days appear to be made unpleasant. I can see at least one way. If jerome has any sence he will POOF! before monday 20th “25

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights Nov 11-15

Newsquawk Highlights include US and China CPI, US Retail Sales, UK and Australian Jobs

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Good finish for the dollar but…

EURUSD found support again below 1.07, with a higher low

AUDUSD found support just below .6562 support (cited earlier)

EURGBP tested just below .8295, thus the GBPUSD lag

USDJPY did not join the buy USD party although it bounced from a 152.14 double bottom

US500 traded above 6000, watch the close vs. this pivotal target

‘

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1.0714 low is the remaining support ahead of the 1.0682 low.

Scroll down to see my earlier update…

To negate this retracement attempt and shift the focus back to the lows, 1.0746 would need to be broken.

[GVI Forex 2]

Only major up vs the USD is the JPY, AUDJPY is the biggest loser

EURGBP sliding towards .8300, pressuring EURUSD

US500 edging closer to 6000

[GVI Forex 2]

AUUSD remains the underperformer, down over 1%

.6600 is pivotal with .8563 next support and .6617 resistance

[GVI Forex 2]

As I noted before the election, how markets end the week will be more significant than what come in between.

So far US stocks found a footing and currently bouncing back towards the highs, dollar up on the day, bond yields lower after dipping yesterday so 2 out of 3 for the Trump Ttade.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD held test of 1.0746 (low 1.0744-45).

[GVI Forex 2]

Price action in AUDUSD (down) suggests buying ahead of China stimulus and disappointment afterwards.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 15 MIN CHART – PAUSE ABOVE 152

Double bottom at 152.14

Needs to move above 152.45-50 to confirm the low is in for now.

[GVI Forex 2]

NEWSQUAWK US OPEN

China-related assets slide as MOFCOM disappoints

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses are entirely in the red, with sentiment hit after China’s NPC press conference disappointed markets; US futures remain flat.

DXY is slightly firmer, with the JPY strong whilst the Antipodeans lag given the lack of fresh stimulus measures from China.

Bonds are on a firmer footing, with modest outperformance in Gilts and as USTs await Fed speak from Bowman & Musalem.

Crude oil, XAU and base metals are all on the backfoot, following the underwhelming Chinese NPC press conference.

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[GVI Forex 2]

Markets often assume the worst and then take a breath to assess the situation. This appears to be the case with the Trump Trade, where bond yields have backed off, the dollar has given back some of its post-election gains and today stocks finally seem to be taking a breather.

I posted this last night for US500

Are stocks the outlier in the Trump Trade as they continue to rise while the other components retrace some of the post-election moves?

NOTE US GOVERNMENT OFFICES ARE CLOSED MONDAY FOR VETERANS DAY. BOND MARKETS AND BANKS ARE CLOSED BUT STOCK MARKETS ARE OPEN.  CANADA IS CLOSED FOR A HOLIDAY AS WELL.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – KEEP IT SIMPLE

To keep it simple, 1.08 is the buy/sell; bias indicator that will dictate whether the retracement has legs or the downside stays at risk.

To negate this retracement attempt and shift the focus back to the lows, 1.0746 would need to be broken.

On the upside, a move above the 61,8% level (1.0840) would be needed to shift the focus back to 1.09

Note the 2 blue Amazing Trader lines drawn off 1.0824, which indicated a change in the directional risk (back to the downside) has so far paused above 1.0746.

Current intra-day range 1.0760-90, too tight to last.

[Author]

Posts