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NAS100 (NASDAQ) 4 HOUR: On the defensive but above supports
Trend: Up stalled Momentum: Consolidating
Still consolidating but break of 29221 puts it more on the defensive and 29K on the radar.
Key supports at 29036, 28984 and 28694 need to hold to keep momentum from building and the downside contained. On the upside, moves likely contained unless 29500+ starts to trade.
Verbal intervention in the JPY, this time from the ECB so far seeing a brief reaction (160.17 => 160.02 => 160.12)
US PRE-MARKET MOVERS: MU, NIO, FRVO, MDT, NVS, HOOD
ES -0.6% NQ -1% RTY -0.5%
GER40 index (cash) has been in 📈ascending mode since late March, when it found 📈support at 21,860 More specifically, the index is edging 📉lower today for a second straight day, towards 26,150, where the ascending trendline nearly converges, following six consecutive green sessions that led to o fresh all-time high at 26,620 on Friday.
Market Update: Risk off
EURUSD: Still in its range after coming close to completing a 61.8% retracement (1.1624 high vs. 1.1627). Now dependent on 1.1576/70/62 holding to check the downside and prevent a run at 1.1525/10/00.
US500: Clinging to its recent 7640 low, below which opens a void on the downside other than round numbers and FIBO levels. Stays defensive while below 7700.
Crude oil: XBRUSD above $90 makes $90-$95 a pivotal zone with $100 looming above.
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Forex Market Snapshot: New month, new ball game
As suggested yesterday, USD selling appeared to be driven by month end related flows and this has proved to be the case with the currency firming today although for the most part with limited follow through (AUD and NZD) underperforming as mood turns tio risk off).
The focus, meanwhile, is not on forex but on rising oil prices that have helped trigger what is being described as a rout (i.e. higher yields) in the global bond market (e.g. JGB 10 year hit 3%, a 30 year high).
In forex, the USDJPY test of 160+ again (3rd day) between 160.29 and 160.02) has raised an intervention alert, which is being encouraged by Treasury Secretary Bessent comments calling for a firmer JPY.
Looking ahead, US ISM PMI highlights the economic calendar with added attention on the prices paid component.
COMING UP: Data: Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Aug), German Retail Sales (Jul), Global S&P Manufacturing PMI Final (Aug), EZ CPI Prelim (Aug), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug), JOLTS Job Openings (Jul), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3).
Events: US Midterm Primary Elections: Massachusetts. Speakers: Fed’s Barr; ECB’s Vujcic. Supply: Australia, Japan, Germany. Earnings: Dell, Palo Alto.
US Market Wrap: Oil gains, stocks see losses as US-Iran tensions escalate
XAUUSD vs BTCUSD (4 HOUR)
XAUUSD (GOLD) on the defensive while below 4450 (former key support) and needs to hold above 4415 for a higher low and 4396 to prevent putting 4310 on the map.
Back above 4450 is needed to shift its tone, above 4472 to put 4500 back in play.
BTCUSD (BITCOIN) consolidating between 77K and 80K with key levels outside of it (76923, 76604 and 75491/81455
Market Update: Month end?
USD slipped in what appeared to be month end flows weighing on the currency. For EURUSD to negate Friday’;s breakdown, 1.1635+ would be needed (similar level in GBPUSD would be 1.3570)
US500 remains defensive below 7700 but downside contained while above 7640-50
Crude oil backing off and consolidating after building on the opening gap higher.
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