Market Update: Fickle convictions Bond yields down => stocks (led by NAS) initially down => USD down (stocks currently off the lows but yields still down as curve flattens). Crude oil is down on the day after firming yesterday. EURUSD: 2-day double bottom just above 1.1150 but upside so far contained below 1.12 and 1.1217 resistance. US500 back above 7800 (and NAS bounced off low as well).


COMING UP: Data: Japanese PPI (Sep), German Final Inflation (Sep), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Existing Home Sales (Sep). Events: RBA Minutes; OPEC MOMR. Speakers: US President Trump; BoE’s Greene; ECB’s Elderson, Lane; Fed’s Waller, Barkin, Collins. Supply: Australia, Netherlands, Italy, Germany. Earnings: UnitedHealth, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citi, Johnson & Johnson.
USDJPY DAILY: Bullish signal?
USDJPY on the verge of breaking a 7-day pattern pivoting 158, which under normal circumstances would send a bullish signal for 159.;03 assuming158.50 is firmly broken. However, these are not normal times given the BoJ intervention threat although a hard sell to traders if the overall USD tone stays firm. In any case, a break of this pattern would be bullish.

XAUUSD (GOLD) 1 HOUR: Back to 4100-4200?
This scenario posted Friday so far playing out (today’s high 4217 => last 4168.. needs to hold 4168 to keep focus on 4200 or upside risk cools)
Market trading like the low is in (at least for now) but to build momentum for a run at 4315, , 4227 needs to be firmly broken.
If not, upside cools and 4100-4200 becomes the range.

Market Update: Sparring Match
It feels like a sparring match in holiday thinned trading ahead of key events this week, highlighted by Wed’s release of US CPI.
EURUSD unable to shake a focus from 1.12 (currently trading softer back below). Day range so far: 1.1183-1.1217
US stock market bulls are hoping earnings season, starting with big banks reporting on Tues and Wed, will lift to new highs. US500 came close but paused today below its 7845 record high.
Crude oil is back to about unchanged after initially opening lower.

In our blog
NewsquawkWeek in Focus 12-16th October 2026: US CPI, US Retail Sales, Start of Q3 Earnings, China CPI, UK jobs, RBA Minutes and Aussie jobs

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