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FX option expiries for 4 March 10am New York cut
EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level. The expiries might just help to keep price action more restricted in the session ahead but as is the case in the days before, expect the impact to be rather limited at best. That as there are bigger drivers of trading sentiment in play.
Right now, the dollar remains in a firmer spot amid the broader risk retreat and general unease amid the US-Iran conflict. Adding to that, the downside pressure for EUR/USD is growing after the technical breakdown yesterday here. That is making for a stronger argument for EUR/USD to keep below 1.1600 on the day.
Unless I am living in a bubble, is anyone really surprised by the Iranian denial? The surprise (for me at least) was the market reaction to the NYT report.
US500 (SP500) UPDATE
- Catching a bid above 6800 but to build momentum off the 6711 low, the 6905 level would need to be taken out.
- Otherwise, a case can be made for consolidation while between 6700-6900 with 6800 pivotal in dictating the tone.
- Key levels: Trendlines on both sides, 6841 (former resistance), 6805 support
US500 1 HOUR CHART
US PRE-MARKET MOVERS: CRWD, GTLB, ROST, MRNA, INTC, TSLA, CRWV, ANF
This seems to be the US game plan but it is not clear why Bessent is commenting on war strategy
XTIUSD UPDATE
- If USD strength is seen as an energy play, then forex traders need to pay attention to the oil market.
- Chart shows a lower top which would need to break 71.60 to build momentum and then break 70.14 to break the uptrend and move into the gap.
- Otherwise, it is just consolidation and headline watching with a focus on the reaction to war news.
XTIUUSD 4 HOUR CHART
XAUUSD (GOLD) UPDATE
- Consolidating within a broad 4996=5419 range after yesterday’s wild session that found support on the brief break below 5000, confirming this as the major bias setting level.
- No nearby levels on the bounce so watch 5200, as above it is needed to give it a better bid. High so far 5202
XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART
- The dollar back to about unchanged after initially firming overnight. One exception is the JPY, which is outperforming (along with the NZD). despite firmer oil prices. CHF is a modest underperformer as the Swiss currency continues to resist catching a safe haven bid as the SNB threat to intervene is acting as a deterrent.
- BITCOIN has awakened from its slumber with a move above the 70K level.
- GOLD is a touch firmer but trading below 5200 after a wild sessio0n yesterday.
- US stocks are consolidating after another whipsaw day yesterday.
- Otherwise, it is another headline watching day with the focus mainly on the reaction to news.
- US ISM Services PMI is due later on.
Oil blips up (XTIUSD back to $75.00)… USD a touch firmer, US stocls not yet reacting
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