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GBPUSD 4 HOUR: Battle for 1.35
Trend up
Momentum UP but trying for more
To make this more than a bounce within the range, 1.3509 followed by a break of 1.3550 would be needed.
Otherwise, still just a swing within a 1.3400-1.3500/10 range where 1.3434 needs to hold to keep the downside limited.
Note firmer GBP crosses (e.g. vs. JPY and EUR giving GBPUSD support)
Dollar remains on the defensive but so far with limited follow through
- EURUSD tested 1.1482 (high 1.1484) (last 1.1470)
- GBPUSD ran stops above 1.3395 (high 1.3407, last 1.3380)
- USDJPY (BoJ or not?) pause above 162 keeps focus on 163 (last 162.91)
- US bond yields remain up but off earlier highs (10 year last 4.691% vs. 4.712% high)
GBPUSD 4 HOUR: Waiting for the BoE
Key level to watch is 1.3395 resistance, a likely place for stops and obstacle to shifting the risk to 1.3455-82.
On the downside, needs to hold the 1.3310 mini-breakout level to keep the focus away from the 1.3274 low.
Watch EURGBP (last .8568) as an indicator of post-BoE GBP sentiment.
Forex Market Snapshot
A bit oif a disconnect with softer oil prices (and dip in US yields) while the dollar maintains a generally firm tone but so far with limited follow through.
EUREUSD: Back to about unchanged after holding a test of 1.1361 suppoprt
USDJPY: Filled its opening week gap to 163.85
GBPUSD: Focus still on 1.3300 (bearish below) after breaking down through it yesterday (low 1.3284)
AUDUSD: The underperformer and so far breaking a 9-day pivot around .7000 (bearish) but only confirmed by a break of .6962 (tested, holding so far).
A classic in our blog
How You Can Use Currency Crosses to Trade Spot Forex
If I told you that there was a large order in the market to buy EUR and sell GBP would you be looking to sell EURUSD and buy GBPUSD, do the opposite or step aside as the order gets executed?
If I told you that there was a large order in the market to sell EUR and buy GBP would you be looking to buy EURUSD and sell GBPUSD, do the opposite or step aside as the order gets executed?
GBPUSD 4 hour: What’s driving the GBP bus?
Momentum down but GBPUSD holding above key 1.3342 and 1.3322 supports.
A break of the rendline and 1.3395 would needed to break momentum.
Who’s driving the HBP bus?
EURGBP is drivng.
Offsets from EURGBP selling helped drive GBPUSD to the 1.3558 high
Offsets from a bounce in EURUSD has been a factor in the GBPUSD retreat.
Note, EURGBP has come off its earlier high, easing selling pressure on GBPUSD and removing a source of EURUSD demand.
Forex Market Snapshot
Mixed bag for the dollar as the forex and other markets turn defensive as escalating US-Iran tensions outweigh diplomatic hopes.
One focus is on the JPY, with USDFJPY pivoting 163 after extending its 40-year high as traders weigh potential for a BoJ response (i.e. higher interest rates and/or intervention).
EURUSD unable to shake a focus from 1.14 but flows out of GBP (i.e. firmer EURGBP) providing modest support while weighing modestly on GBPUSD.
Antipodeans are down slightly while USDCAD pivots 1.41 with one eye on the crude oil market.
Forex Market Snapshot
Firmer crude oil => firmer yields => firmer USD
USDJPY at a new 40-year high. BoJ threat looms but any intervention would find willing buyers below the market. 163.50 is targeted next, if broken then 165 comes on the radar
GBPUSD weaker on firmer EURGBP but upside paused below .8545 resistance, cooling the move.
EURUSD down but clinging to 1.1400 as support
USDCAD extending rebound from 1.40 as fresh tariff threat “Trump’s” firmer crude oil
AUDUSD back toward .7000 after failing to hold above .7020
XAUUSD and BTCUSD getting safe haven flows?
USDJPY 4 HOUR: What is holding USDJPY back?
Nomentum pointed up with an upside risk so what is holding USDJPY back?
Obvious answer us the BoJ intervention threat with the recently set 40-year High at 162.84 looming.
The outlet for JPY selling has come via its crosses, such as AUDJPY and NZDJPY (GBPJPY last week as well) where there is less chancde of intervention.
On the downside, keeps a biod while above 162, wih a stronger bid while above 162,43.
Should 162.84 be taken out, next target would be 163.50.
Note, a central bank is often more concerned with the pace of a move more than a specific level.
Forex Market Snapshot
The dollar is traded mixed with AUD (higher metals prices) and NZD (hotter CPI) outperforming at the expnse of the JPY, with USDJPY inching closer but still below its 162.84 40-year high. GBP has eased vs. the EUR with EURGBP trading back aboive .8500 as the new UK govt takes over.
Key movers have been Gold and Bitcoin while crude oil has so far shown little response to another day of US-Iran hostilties but bears watching. US stocks are firmer as well.but consolidating.
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buyers re-emerged around the key 214.75 support area,
