[GVI Forex 2]

USDCHF 4-Hour Chart

I swore off trading the CHF after the infamous 2015 SNB-inspired flash crash (new traders should Google it) but JP has alerted me to perhaps start trading it again.

This chart shows a failed breakout and subsequent retreat. Ket levels can be seen in the chart.

The CHF along with the JPYT are two of the most sensitive currencies to moves in US interest rates although respective central bank risk is in the opposite direction. . The SNB is seen as the most likely CB to cut interest rates first while the market is waiting for the BoJ to finally raise rates.

[SF Monedge]

JP – It’s a Great White Soros.  They’ve been around for millions of years.  One of them crashed Sterling decades ago.  They lurk in murky water.  Side note, am short Norwegian Krone/Yen now.

[Mtl JP]

thing is … on Friday afternoon especially , one never knows what kind of shark is lurking for their opportunity and waiting, bidding their time . they are usually highly secretive and elusive and sly and not into sharing

[Mtl JP]

or laying a trap lololol

[Mtl JP]

sf – 8836 —- somebody sneaki is onto me / u

[SF Monedge]

JP – I already took the money on the earlier UsdChf sell andam flat. Looking for another pop above 8840 next week to short again if deemed viable.

[Mtl JP]

usdchf 8840 ish is making a H&S structural shoulder on the hourly.

I like H&S plays. IF n when 8840 breaks down and holds as Res then measured trgt is 8786

[Mtl JP]

USDCHF 8843
looks like it is basing around here and so stretching the 8889 – 8843 GAP thusly

still above its previous approx 8815 top of old range

[Mtl JP]

SF / hail yellen !
“The U.S. national debt is rising by $1 trillion about every 100 days” – cnbc

[Mtl JP]

SF / Tyler has what I think is a good question: will The Fed start QE Reverse-Twist… and hike rates to tamp down a resurgent inflation thanks to animal spirits 2.0 prompted by their prior pivot?

[SF Monedge]

JP – it feels to me like they are more reactive to the markets/economy, which is how it should be.  The one’s who are full of hot air are Yellen and Powell.  Yellen because she is a communist and Powell because he is scared lol.

Believe AudJpy has decent odds to challenge 98.30-40 area eventually where it would be prudent to consider the sell side for positioning even if it inevitably challenges 99 from a longer term viewpoint.  Currently 98.05.  EurJpy will inevitably trade below 162 looking outward, likely after another short lived bout of buy side interest.

[Mtl JP]

SF is the FED pre-emptive or just reactive to having been blind (and therefore ambushed – no-one saw it coming)

[SF Monedge]

Mary Daly, San Francisco (my home town) FED President is the one to listen to.

She explains very cleanly how, what and why they are implementing the policies they are.  The babble is not there.  Straight shooter, eloquent, rational, common sense.  Bottom line from her is we are not quite there yet for a rate adjustment.

[SF Monedge]

JP – JP – well that is what happened to us when we were stuck at 4% LDR for a year lol.  Very large layoff ensued, myself included due to out of balance salary on the high side for my title.  Offered a new position but passed.

Regarding Boj –

Ueda is pretty rational in my view though  never having met the man.  If the 2% is yet to be achieved he should say so.  Tempered Usd/Jpy enthusiasm going forward.  No way I am on the buy side at these levels.

[Mtl JP]

Monedge …”management “identified material weaknesses in the company’s internal controls related to internal loan review, resulting from ineffective oversight, risk assessment and monitoring activities.”…

anybody being held accountable aka career being relegated to flipping burgers ?

[Mtl JP]

USDCHF 8857
developing a price GAP

fwiw

[SF Monedge]

New York Community Bank has fallen 26% this morning after disclosing loan oversight weaknesses.  When I worked with a fortune 500 bank at the headquarters, a loan default rate of 4% is very bad.  If their LDR is anything like 4% or more that bank is in serious trouble and ripe for a takeover.

[Belgrade Knez]

one rule I always obey:
never stay in the trade during red data release, new session opening or NY cut time……. wish I obey all my rules as I obey this one

[Mtl JP]

witnessing the reversing magic of 10am ny hanki-panki

[GVI Forex 2]

ISM missed on the downside

UofM consumer sentiment revised lower

See our Economic Calendar

[Mtl JP]

Monedge u like ueda’s overnite dissing ideas of hike?
I think this clown has most credibility from market

[Mtl JP]

EURO’S pivots:
R 1.085
S 1.0792

I am biased IF I too were physically forced. (uP)

[Mtl JP]

9:50 ny
–
EURO 1.0800

Right on multi-support, to me just a curiosity matter. nothing more.

[GVI Forex 2]

Yields up ahead of ISM PMI 4.29%

Final U of M – wstch inflation expectations

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 104.09 / 10-yr 4.266
–
can something be more boring ?
I doubt USD has good change for enthusiastic demand

—
10:00 – UofM sent
10:00 – ISM manufacturing
10:15 – waller (forgot to tell us something yestreday)
12:15 – bostic (eco outlook)
13:30 – daly & schmid
15:30 – kugler (discovered something about dual mandate he is eager to share)

[SF Monedge]

Re Usd/Jpy…you would have to physically force me to be on the buy side at these levels with the BoJ mouthing off recently.

[SF Monedge]

S/P 500 futures are either going to form a double top around 5122 today or blow through it to set new levels of price.  5070-80 is the area to hold the bid, nearby contract opened Asia bid but fell to hold a closer in 5090 pivot, currently 5100.  Eur tends to move with US stocks on a risk on/off basis.  10yr yield at 42.70 is right in the middle of the recent range 42.20 – 43.50.  DXY showing much sturdier than yields and showing signs of strength that could stick overall into next week.  Headed into the weekend one might believe the risk appetite would be not so hot with so much geo-political/war risk present.  Currently positioned lightly on the sell side of Usd/Chf from this morning’s high minus 2 pips with a tight stop.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 30 Min Chart:

Refer to myMarch 1, 2024 at 9:17 am

Expect support on dips as long as 150.30 holds

Chart speaks for itself

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJPY 1-Hour Chart

Two red lines drawn from yesterday’s 161.68 low indicated a change in direction

Key resistance 163.41 and 163.72

Currently consolidating within the outside candle at 162.33-1.63.00 with a better bid.

[Mtl JP]

4.217% Yield | 6:47 AM EST // EURO 1.0818 (butting against multiple top, roughly)
yield sucks da moose again, but dlr is mixed

[Author]

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