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US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR: Still a retracement?
The forex market is not alone in “living to run stops” as US500 set them off following the break of 7650. Subsequent move back above 7650 followed a pause above 7613 (61.8%) and 7608, which gives hope this is still just a retracement.
Looking ahead, 7650 will be pivotal in setting the tone but to negate the risk, 7700, which has traded 7 days in a row, would need to print again on Friday.
Forex Market Snapshot
When 2 currencies move in opposite directions it indicates real money flows.
What stands out is the CHF trading up and strongest, JPY well off its low while EURUSD trades weakest and the USD is firmer elsewhere (EURCHF (down) is the underperformer. What does this suggest? Unwinding of carry trades and other crosses to start the new quarter as funding currencies are in demand (note equities down, yields tumble as mood turns risk off).
Market Update: Crosses weighing on EURUSD
When you see 2 currencies move in opposite directions vs. the USD it indicates real money flows. In this case JPY moving higher and EUR moving lower = EURJPY selling.
Note, market had more trouble absorbing the EURUSD selling component than the USDJPY selling.. See now whether EURUSD can hold above 1,1250
ISM MFG PMI: Slight headline miss, Prices miss (higher)… yield curve steepens, stocks hit on the prices component
US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR: 7 days in a row
Unable to shake its focus from 7700, which has now printed for the 7th day in a row This leaves it consolidating between a double top at 7727 (on this CFD chart) and a double bottom at 7650 The onus is on the bull side to hold regain 7700+ and/or hold 7650 to maintain the range and prevent putting 7600 on the radar.
Keep an eye on correlations 2-year yield
Markets, expecially forex, continue to be hypersensitive and correlate with US bond yields moves, this time a dip in yields led by the 2 year as longer-term lag (curve steepener)…makes for fickle trading Price moves today… 2-year 4.92% => 4.854% / EURUSD 1.1254 => 1.1312 (resistance cited earlier has capped the upside) Followup: 2 year blips to 4.866% / EURUSD dips to 1.1293 A word about intra-day correlations: They work until they stop working
USDCAD DAILY: Fully retraced, now what?
Having fully retraced the move from 1.4247 => 1.3731 (high 1.4258), 1.4247 would need to become support for momentum to build further to the upside. If not, still keeps a bid as long as it stays above 1.,4200 (but less so if 1.4247 does not become support). Note forex market hypersensitivity (and correlations) to moves in US bond yields.
Market Update
Oil up, yields up, USD up (ahead of Friday’s US jobs report)
EURUSD: With no ley support nntil 1.1065, 1.12 increases in importance. Resistance starts at the former low at 1.1312. US500: Extended pattern around 7700 to 7 days in a row but inability to stay above it leaves it dependent on 7650 (tested again) holding to maintain the range and avoid opening the door to 7600.
USDJPY 4 HOUR: Joining the party
JPY, which lagged yesterday, is the underperformer today as rising US bond yields support the dollar. Chartwise,158 is now pivotal with support as long as 157.85 holds. The general USD tone makes it hard for BoJ jawboning to have a lasting impact although the threat is a potential restraint on the upside, The market would go on higher alert if the current move makes a run at 160.
In our blog
This is a good read as markets continue to try and trade on hope with little success
Hope Is Not a Trading Strategy: Understanding Hope Trades
COMING UP: Data: Japanese Tankan Survey (Q3), Australian Trade Balance (Aug), Swiss CPI (Sep), US Challenger Job Cuts (Sep), Jobless Claims (Sep/26), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3) Events: BoJ SOO (Sep).
Speakers: BoE’s Bailey, Mann, Pill; ECB’s Cipollone, Lagarde, Schnabel; Fed’s Barkin, Collins, Schmid, Waller, Jefferson, Bowman, Cook, Williams, Logan; BoC’s Rogers.
Supply: Spain, France. Earnings: Accenture, McCormick, Nik
Newsquawk US Market Wrap – Stocks mixed and yields rise despite soft PCE
SNAPSHOT: Equities mixed, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar up, Gold down.
(Right click on any image (or chart) to open a full screen in a new tab)
NAS100 4 HOUR: New month, new ball game?
‘Diverging with US500 abut run to the upside so far failed to stay above 30500, a level that could become pivotal if trade is between 30-31K.
Otherwise, for bulls to maintain control, 30100-30250 need to hold as support.
Test in the new quarter will be if stocks can keep a bid should US bond yields continue to march higher.
US500 (SP500) 4 HOUR: 6 days in a row
Ending the quarter unable to shake a focus from 7700, which traded for the 6th day in a row. Weak close to the quarter, however, puts the risk on the downside where 7650 (tested) needs to hold to keep 7700 on the radar and thoughts away from 7600. Focus in the days ahead will be whether the weak close is month/quarter end driven nor there is more to it (e.g. weight of firmer bond yields).
EARNINGS PRIMER: Micron (MU) earnings due 30th September at 21:00BST/16:00EDT
